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SEC Baseball preview: 10 stories to watch in ’22

Joe Cox

By Joe Cox

Published:


SEC baseball is back. First pitch is moments away. In many ways, it never went away. After all, the last college baseball we saw was … SEC baseball. Mississippi State and Vandy faced off in a College World Series final to remember. Where can the league go from there? Glad you asked, because here are 10 stories to watch in 2022.

1. How does State respond?

Mississippi State had one of the strongest historical programs in the SEC but had never won the College World Series. Well, now they have. We haven’t had a repeat winner since South Carolina’s 2010 and 2011 run, but that’s the opportunity for the Bulldogs. Obviously, State lost plenty of talent, including Tanner Allen and pitching ace Will Bednar. The bigger issue is how will coach Chris Lemonis keep his team focused. Repeating is hard, but the Bulldogs have as good of a shot as any recent champion.

2. What about the Vandy Boys, particularly with the aces gone?

On the other hand, Vandy just missed a repeat title, albeit with the 2020 non-postseason in between. The Vandy Boys were a win away, but then watched State grab 2 straight wins and the hardware. And of course, Vandy now faces life without Kumar Rocker and/or Jack Leiter, the pitching aces who were so dominant in short series play. Patrick Reilly got some good training in replacing an ace, and the Vandy offense will likely be tougher than a year ago. A third straight trip to the CWS finals is not as far away as many might think.

3. How much do the new coaches change things?

Yes, program changes made at LSU (Arizona’s Jay Johnson) and Texas A&M (TCU’s Jim Schlossnagle) immediately upped expectations for both programs. Both teams had a fair amount of talent last season, but each underachieved, although LSU showed some promising postseason spark after staggering through much of the season. Both teams should be better, but expecting either coach to leap-frog the Mississippi schools or Vandy in Year 1 is probably a bridge too far.

4. Can Tennessee stay at the top of the league?

Tony Vitello needed a couple of years to turn around the Vols, like the Tigers and Aggies are seeking. But there’s no questioning his capable handling of the 2021 UT squad, leading them to Omaha before a couple of down games ended the season. The question — after UT went from 2005-2020 in between Omaha visits — is whether Vitello can keep the Vols at that level. The immediate answer might be no. UT will be solid, but the injury to pitcher Blade Tidwell is a quick sign that maybe things aren’t breaking the Vols’ way this year. UT could go deep in the postseason, but not quite reach the heights of 2021 again.

5. Who could be the new UT — the upwardly mobile surprise?

Well, LSU and A&M would love to be that team. And LSU probably has enough personnel to make a run. The Arizona transfers of Jacob Berry and Riley Collins could put the Tigers into Omaha … but the West is a tough division to climb. After last season, Florida could rebound and be something of a surprise. Or Georgia, which has been kind of underwhelming but returns a bunch of talent. There are plenty of teams that fill the potential bill.

6. Which coaches could be on something of a hot seat?

To play both sides against each other, Georgia’a Scott Stricklin seems like his program could be a few steps behind expectation. Sneak past Florida and/or UT this year and Stricklin is fine. Slide down to battle Carolina or Kentucky for 4th and not as much. Nick Mingione at Kentucky could be feeling a little warm. Steve Bieser’s seat at Mizzou has to be more than lukewarm, and Butch Thompson could be a little uncomfortable at Auburn.

7. Who’s the best MLB prospect in the SEC?

Last year, it was the Rocker and Leiter show, and while Leiter surpassing Rocker as a prospect was not entirely unexpected, it definitely was the talk of the league throughout much of the season. If Florida’s Jud Fabian can make more contact, he could be the guy. His power definitely plays at the next level, but so do his swing-and-miss issues.

Meanwhile, former Arizona Wildcat/now LSU Tiger Jacob Berry is a switch-hitting star who might not have the highest ceiling but looks like one of the league’s safest bets to be in MLB shortly. Those are two good guesses, but somebody like Landon Sims could pitch his way onto that shortlist.

8. Who’s the underrated star of the league?

Might be the same guy it was last year — Logan Tanner from Mississippi State. He’s solid at the plate, he’s a smart, crafty catcher who will help some young pitchers along. He’s obviously a winner. Dude doesn’t grab a ton of headlines — not unlike his team. But I suspect 14 SEC head coaches would be glad to have him behind the plate for their respective squads.

9. How many teams will make the NCAA Tournament?

The league had 9 teams in the NCAA Tournament in 2021, with 3 ending up in Omaha. The Mississippi schools, Arkansas, Vandy, Florida are all virtually guaranteed to make the tournament. Tennessee and LSU seem really, really likely. Last year, South Carolina and Alabama were in, but to open the season, it feels like Texas A&M and Georgia could be better picks for the last couple of spots. The magic number seems to be 9 — getting more in is probably impossible because of all the league games, unless something insane happens in Hoover, which is always possible. Sending 3 to Omaha again is also possible. Maybe even likely.

10. Who wins it all?

Well, last year, Arkansas was the best team in the country. And then, Vandy had the two ace starters. So of course, Mississippi State snuck in and won its first CWS title in program history.

Can 2022 top that?

Six SEC teams open the season in the top 10 of Baseball America’s poll: No. 2 Vandy, No. 3 Mississippi State, No. 6 Florida, No. 8 Arkansas, No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 10 LSU.

Could it be Ole Miss’ year? Looking at their lineup, it could. Or maybe Arkansas learned some big postseason lessons and can finish the deal this year? If there’s enough pitching, sure. Vandy has been the league’s strongest program over the last half-dozen years, so don’t leave them out. State could repeat, but that seems unlikely. Arkansas might be the sound choice, but we’ve got a long way to go!

Joe Cox

Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.

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