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After one month of the 2024-2025 college basketball, one message is clear.
It’s the SEC’s world this season and we are all witnesses.
We tried to tell you during SEC Media Days that the SEC would be the best basketball league in the country.
Some scoffed. Some clutched their dusty VHS tapes of Tobacco Road and Big East wars from seasons long past. Some simply needed to see it to believe it.
No one doubts now.
Feast Week was the latest evidence of the absolute wagon that SEC basketball has become.
The SEC went 24-6 in Feast Week games, with 20 of those wins coming against high-major opponents. The SEC left Feast Week with multiple event champions, from Auburn’s torrid run through a loaded Maui Invitational to Oklahoma’s stunning win at a stacked Battle 4 Atlantis to Florida’s ESPN Events Invitational title, which came in 2 wins by an average of 27 points.
The SEC went 33-14 against other Power 5 (Big East, ACC, SEC, B1G, Big 12, + Gonzaga) opposition. As of Monday morning’s new NET rankings, the SEC features 5 teams in the top 13 of the NET and a staggering 15 in the top 75.
Where SEC teams sit in the first NET rankings:
• No. 1 Tennessee
• No. 2 Auburn
• No. 6 Florida
• No. 8 Kentucky
• No. 13 Alabama
• No. 27 Georgia
• No. 28 Mississippi State
• No. 37 Oklahoma
• No. 43 Texas A&M
• No. 46 Missouri
• No. 50 LSU
• No. 51 Arkansas
• No.…— Blake Lovell (@theblakelovell) December 2, 2024
Is everything rosy? No. Arkansas is a hot mess. South Carolina looks set to underachieve. Still, the SEC’s flex early in the season is difficult to overstate. Consider this: Every single SEC team is a Quad 1 or Quad 2 opponent, depending on venue, with the exception of South Carolina. That’s dominance.
The SEC is easily the top-ranked league in KenPom, with a Net Rating of 19.02, almost 2 points higher than the 2nd-best league, the Big 12.
The SEC’s strength stands in stark contrast to the ACC, one of the weakest Power 5 leagues through the first month of the season. Only 1 ACC school, Clemson, won a Feast Week event (the Tigers won the Sunshine Slam in Daytona Beach, Florida). The league features 4 of the 5 lowest ranked power conference teams in the NET, including an extremely disappointing Miami team that went 0-3 at the Charleston Classic and followed up that disaster with a buy game loss to Charleston Southern over the weekend. Something about the city of Charleston that doesn’t like Hurricanes, I guess.
The 5 worst NET rankings among power conference teams:
175. Georgia Tech
177. Syracuse
191. Miami
200. Seton Hall
233. Virginia Tech— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) December 2, 2024
One league known for football playing the best basketball in the country. One storied hoops league is struggling — although, in fairness, the ACC does boast 5 teams in the top 30 of NET, including 2 in the top 5.
That’s the backdrop for the 2nd ACC-SEC Challenge, which begins Tuesday night.
To borrow from the lifelong ACC hoops fan and country music star Randy Travis, the SEC is deeper than the holler.
Will the ACC challenge that depth? The first ACC-SEC Challenge ended in a 7-7 tie. A similar result this year would likely thrill the ACC.
Here’s a breakdown of every game in the ACC-SEC Challenge, beginning with the games slated for Tuesday.
Tuesday’s Games
No. 4 (AP) Kentucky at Clemson (9:30 pm, ESPN)
The best game of the first day.
The Wildcats were one of the nation’s most impressive teams in November.
Mark Pope already is making an impact. His 5-out and 4 around 1 offense, with smart screening actions to free up his coterie of shooters, feels transformational after years of plodding Calipari dribble drive. The Wildcats rank 12th in KenPom offensive efficiency and that number feels low given the reality that the Wildcats are “only” shooting 38% from deep as a team. Amari Williams and Lamont Butler have anchored a better than expected defense. The Wildcats have a win over Duke already, but a road win over Clemson would be a second Quad 1 win and it would feel almost as sweet for a program that struggled on the road late in the Calipari regime.
Clemson can really guard. Chase Hunter and Ian Schieffelin are the key returning pieces from last year’s Elite 8 group, and Cincinnati transfer Viktor Lakhin and Myles Foster (Illinois State) are bucket getters. Schieffelin will be the key — he’s the biggest mismatch the Tigers have and was marvelous (36 points, 26 rebounds, 5 steals) in their run to the Sunshine Slam title last week.
Prediction: Kentucky 73, Clemson 70. Big Blue travels well and they’ll fill the rafters with chants of “Big Blue,” but this will be a tough environment regardless and a great measuring stick for a Kentucky team exceeding early expectations. Give me Lamont Butler or Andrew Carr making a big play late to seal a close win.
No. 23 Ole Miss at Louisville (9 pm, ACC Network)
Chris Beard had to be pleased with the way the Rebels responded to a huge challenge at the Rady Children’s Invitational last week. Ole Miss secured a résumé win over BYU in overtime before falling to then-No. 13 Purdue in the title game by 2 points. Jaemyn Brakefield, a do it all glue guy who can guard 5 spots, was magnificent against the Boilermakers, scoring 16 points and grabbing 5 rebounds. The Rebels also have a terrific backcourt to matchup with Louisville in Jaylen Murray and Matthew Murrell, one of the most complete players in the country.
This is the second shot for Louisville at a SEC foe in the KFC Yum! Center this season. The first, a 22-point loss to Tennessee, went poorly. Wisconsin transfer Chucky Hepburn has been very good this season for the Cardinals, but finding him consistent support against quality opponents has been an issue to date. To win, Louisville needs a big game from high usage Kasean Pryor and Terrence Edwards, who is a better shooter than he’s shown so far this season.
Prediction: Ole Miss 72, Louisville 68. The Rebels move Louisville to 0-3 against SEC foes with too much balance and a team well suited to shut down Louisville’s guard play.
Arkansas at Miami (7 pm, ESPN2)
The Hurricanes have one of the most expensive rosters in the sport, thanks to a NIL war chest that poured huge resources into star guard Nijel Pack and his backcourt mates Matthew Cleveland and Jalen Blackmon. McDonald’s All-American Jalil Bethea didn’t come cheap, either. Put it all together, and a program with a $6M NIL budget is not getting the return on investment you’d expect, especially with 1 of the top 10 active all-time wins leaders in Jim Larrañaga at the helm.
The good news for the Hurricanes, I suppose, is that they are at home against an Arkansas team that has really struggled to score. Stop me if you’ve heard “struggling John Calipari offense” before, but it’s truly dire right now for the Hogs, who aren’t collecting misses at the rate Calipari’s teams usually need to in order to efficient. Arkansas ranks 287th in offensive rebounding, meaning when Johnell Davis, DJ Wagner and Karter Knox miss shots, things can get dicey.
The sum of both team’s parts are better than they are playing under Hall of Fame coaches.
Prediction: Arkansas 75, Miami 68. This won’t be pretty, but the Hogs will pull away with defense late and just enough Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero offensively.
Notre Dame at Georgia (7 pm, ESPNU)
The Dawgs have a trio of guards who can beat you in different ways in Silas Demary (a great driver and tenacious defender), Blue Cain (an elite shooter who is a great free throw shooter) and Tyrin Lawrence (who does a little of everything). White has surrounded them with a lottery pick in Asa Newell, who has been “as advertised” to date, averaging 15 points, 6 rebounds and an assist early in the campaign. Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey is the perfect glue guy and mentor to Newell.
Georgia wasn’t perfect in the Bahamas, but there’s no shame in losing to Marquette, and the St. John’s win will age beautifully.
Notre Dame and 2nd-year coach Micah Shrewsberry are going to win a lot of games in South Bend, but the process will take another year for the results to change.
Prediction: Georgia 81, Notre Dame 67. Playing at home, the Dawgs will overwhelm a disappointing Notre Dame team that can’t guard a soul.
Florida State at LSU (9 pm, SEC Network)
The Seminoles have been one of the ACC’s few pleasant surprises.
Leonard Hamilton’s group is elite defensively, turning opponents over on 25% of possessions. Guard Jamir Watkins is one of the best wings in the country, a lethal driver who is averaging a staggering 8.8 fouls drawn per 40 minutes. The Noles have excellent size and length and 3rd-year player Chandler Jackson has steadied a leaky perimeter defense, averaging 5.5 steals per 40 minutes.
Styles make fights, and FSU’s pressure defense is a rough matchup for LSU, which commits turnovers on 19.4% of its possessions and lacks reliable ball handlers outside of Jordan Sears and Cam Carter. Jalen Reed, a former top-50 recruit, is LSU’s X-factor. His effective field goal percentage is 61.5%, a tremendous number, and he can score at all 3 levels. FSU doesn’t have a great answer for him on their roster.
Prediction: Florida State 77, LSU 73. This feels like a “circle this game” moment for both programs. Will the PMAC be loud and proud? Will Matt McMahon rely less on guards and get the ball to Reed more, exploiting his best mismatch? Leonard Hamilton’s team played Florida tough earlier this season and they’ll break through here for a win on the backs of good defense.
Syracuse at No. 3 Tennessee (7:30 pm, ESPN)
The Volunteers rank No. 2 in KenPom after a month and might have the best defense in America, keyed by All-SEC Defensive team mainstay Zakai Zeigler and his backcourt mate Jahmai Mashack, who Rick Barnes told me is “the most underrated defender I’ve ever coached.” When a Hall of Famer who has won as many games as Barnes heaps that kind of praise on a player, you pay attention. Chaz Lanier, the sharpshooting transfer from UNF, has provided enough offense (17.7 ppg) to make the jump to life after Dalton Knecht seamless on Rocky Top.
Adrian Autry won 20 games in his first year at Syracuse, a fine season in year one post-Boeheim. JJ Starling (19.8 ppg, 4.5 rebounds, 3 assists) is a star, but there’s little else on Syracuse that is scary right now.
Prediction: Tennessee 74, Syracuse 63. The Orange will fight, just as they did in their Feast Week games against Texas Tech and Texas, both decided by 5 points or less. But Thompson Boling Arena is one of the toughest environments in college basketball and Rick Barnes’ veteran team will be tough to beat on that floor this season.
Wake Forest at No. 22 Texas A&M (9 pm, ESPN2)
Two teams with All-American candidates at guard that can struggle to score elsewhere rendezvous in College Station when Wake Forest visits the Aggies.
The Aggies shoot 29.9% from 3, ranking 276th in the country but actually an improvement over last year’s group, which shot just 28% from deep. Wake Forest is even worse, shooting just 26.9%.
Both teams have quality big men who rebound those misses in Texas A&M’s Andy Garcia and Wake Forest’s Efton Reid.
But the real show here are the 2 brilliant guards. To beat good opponents, Buzz Williams needs Wade Taylor IV to be elite. When “IV,” as Williams calls him, is cold, the Aggies are too, as in the 10-point loss to Oregon last week when IV shot 4-for-16 from the floor. He had 24 points in an impressive win over Rutgers on Saturday, a testament to just how much the Aggies go as he goes.
Wake Forest is the same way, with do it all guard Hunter Sallis the key to everything. Sallis was corralled by Florida, shooting just 5-for-17 in a 17-point loss in Orlando last week. But when he gets hot, as he did in a win over Michigan earlier this season, the Demon Deacons can beat most the teams on their schedule.
Prediction: Texas A&M 71, Wake Forest 64. No one will shoot well, but the Aggies will feast on the glass against a Wake Forest team that ranks 231st in defensive rebounding percentage. Second-chance possessions will be the difference as the Aggies pull away late.
Georgia Tech at No. 21 Oklahoma (9 pm, ESPNU)
No team was a bigger surprise during Feast Week than the Sooners, who won a strong Battle 4 Atlantis Field that included Arizona and Gonzaga. Porter Moser’s team remembered the feeling of being the first team out of the NCAA Tournament field a season ago.
“We let that linger, without question. It fuels us. No one in our building wants that feeling again. It was the toughest day for me as a coach in all my years in the profession,” Moser told SDS at SEC Media Day.
Moser’s pushing this group to play together and avoid that feeling this year. Jalon Moore was excellent in the Bahamas, posting two 24 point games in wins over Arizona and Louisville. The Sooners are also shooting 37.5% from deep, a 3 point bump over last year’s group, which is massive for a team that lost too many close games to count last year. The true X-factor, though, is Jeremiah Fears. The freshman reclassified and is averaging 17 points a game against a tough schedule as a freshman.
“Jeremiah is beyond his years,” Moser told the media after Fears scored 26 and Oklahoma beat Arizona. “He came in humble, he came in not entitled, and came in trying to learn.”
If Fears plays at this level all year, the Sooners won’t just make the tournament, they’ll win games in March. Not bad for a group picked 15th in the SEC.
Prediction: Oklahoma 79, Georgia Tech 65. The Yellow Jackets really miss Miles Kelly, who bolted for Auburn in the portal last spring. They have quality defenders at guard in Lance Terry and Kowacie Reeves, but really struggle to score. A road game against an OU team coming off a huge week in Atlantis is not a good recipe to fix those issues.
Cal at Missouri (7 pm, SEC Network)
The only time Mark Madsen’s team has tested itself on the road this season it went poorly. Cal was blown out by Vanderbilt at Memorial Gym on Nov. 13. The Tigers, meanwhile, are unbeaten at home and have thumped all comers since a hard-fought opening night loss to Memphis. Caleb Grill won’t play, but Missouri and Grill dodged a bullet when he was discharged without serious injury after a scare in a win over Lindenwood last week. Still, the Tigers have plenty to handle Cal.
Prediction: Missouri 85, California 67. Too much Mark Mitchell and Tamar Bates as the Tigers bully their way to a 7-1 start.
South Carolina at Boston College (7 pm, ACC Network)
Just when I think Earl Grant’s Boston College program is going to turn the corner, they do something disastrous, like lose a buy game to Dartmouth. Yes, that actually happened Friday. It wasn’t a bad dream.
Just when I think Lamont Paris is going to become a fixture at South Carolina like his mentor Bo Ryan was at Wisconsin, the Gamecocks rattle off one of the season’s most disappointing starts, losing a buy game to North Florida and getting pasted at Indiana.
This is a classic early season matchup of teams trying to hit the “reset button” on their seasons.
Prediction: South Carolina 67, Boston College 64. In a close game where both teams struggle to score, go with the team that has the best player. That’s South Carolina’s Collin Murray Boyles, whose 65.6% effective field-goal percentage is a clinical number that ranks among the best 75 players in America.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
