Hayes: 6 biggest storylines I'm following in the Sweet 16

This is where the tried and true formula for success in the NCAA Tournament locks in.

Where guard play and perimeter defense and at least 1 NBA-level player — why just 1, by the way? — becomes the unshakeable doctrine to live and die by.

Yeah, don’t bet on it.

Because once the Sweet 16 arrives, you’re one pressure-packed, every possession means everything weekend from advancing to the Final Four. You’re one hot player, or hot (or cold) shooting team from a whole lot of crazy unfolding.

For the first time since 2019, all 8 combined No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are still alive in the tournament — or half of the remaining field. Which, of course, means we’re headed for another chalk-filled weekend.

That, or the best basketball weekend of the year.

Purdue and the perimeter

The big man has been the focal point of college basketball for the past 2 seasons, his 7-4, 320-pound shadow looming over all things ball.

Both success and failure.

But this isn’t Zach Edey’s show anymore. This isn’t Purdue dumping the ball into the low block and creating matchup problems for its big man — and hoping for the best.

For the first time in 4 tournaments with Edey, we’re seeing what Purdue does best: Dump it down low to create spacing on the perimeter. And finally — for the first time in 4 tournaments — the shots are falling.

This has become (intentionally or not) Edey’s chance to show his ball and passing skills on the big stage. And Purdue’s tournament to win. Yep, to win.

Because when you shoot from beyond the perimeter like Purdue did in the first weekend (42.5%, 20 3-pointers), you’re going to win a lot of games. Especially with the inside force of Edey on the low block — and his ability to grab offensive rebounds (12 in 2 games) and get easy putbacks, or reset plays/motion.

The inside-out game is remarkably efficient in its simplicity, and when the Boilermakers are shooting well from the perimeter, it’s devastating for opponents. When it’s not, you lose to North Texas (2021), Saint Peter’s (2022) and Fairleigh Dickinson (2023) — and shoot 24 percent from the perimeter.

You’re going to hear a lot more about Edey during Purdue’s run to the Final Four. But watch Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Mason Gillis on the perimeter — where the games will be won.

There’s a reason Purdue is +600 at ESPN BET to win it all.

1 player, 1 tournament

Every handful of years, a player gets hot and a team gets rolling and the next thing you know, they’re cutting down the nets.

Kemba Walker, Shabazz Napier, Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony.

Time and again we’ve seen it play out, and there’s potential for it to happen again on more than one team.

The candidates:

Dalton Knecht, Tennessee: Don’t let anyone tell you Knecht “came out of nowhere” from the transfer portal and redefined his game.

He was a terrific player last season at Northern Colorado, averaging 20 points and 7 rebounds a game. The problem: the Bears were 12-20, their season lost amid 100 or so other low mid-major teams with zero juice.

Knecht is averaging 21 points and 5 rebounds for Tennessee, and he has gone from scoring for a losing team, to scoring and creating shots for 1 of the 3 most talented teams in the tournament.

When he’s on, forget it.

Mark Sears, Alabama: Not the biggest guy, not the strongest guy (6-1, 185 pounds), but can get his shot anywhere on the floor.

He’s nearly impossible to stop on a dribble drive: He’s either making the shot, getting fouled or both. He has scored at least 20 points in 19 of his past 21 games, and has 56 points in 2 tournament games.

More important: He has that get out of my way look on his face, and he has a coach (Nate Oats) who loves running clear out sets for him. Sears vs. UNC’s RJ Davis on Thursday will be must-watch.

Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois: A motivated and talented force imposing his will on others.

At 6-6, 225 pounds, he’s strong and athletic and virtually unguardable. He’s an NBA player in the college game.

Check out his past 5 games (Big Ten tournament and NCAAs): 28, 40, 34, 26 and 30 points. In that span, he’s shooting 53% from the field, 45% from the perimeter, and has made 51-of-58 free throws (88%).

The final run

It’s Year 6 for North Carolina forward Armando Bacot, and the last chance to make up for the lost championship of 2022.

It has been 2 long years since North Carolina blew a 16-point lead to Kansas in the national championship game and lost by 3. Bacot could have left for the NBA after that season but decided to return to Chapel Hill.

Then the 2023 rebuild happened, and the next thing you know, he’s staring at another college season — a super senior season, no less — with one more opportunity to win a national title. He’s averaging 19 points and 10 rebounds in 5 tournament games (ACC and NCAA), and will be a matchup problem for Alabama in the West Region semifinals.

The Tide will more than likely rotate a number of players on Bacot, including Nick Pringle (who has been suspended twice this season and has been hit and miss), and Grant Nelson, who’s more of a scorer and could get pushed around by the bigger and more physical Bacot.

UNC has been a quiet force much of the season, lost somewhat amid the unknown of the ACC. That is, until the NCAAs began. Now the Tar Heels look as strong as anyone in the field with the inside-out game of Bacot and RJ Davis, Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan.

A long time coming

I don’t want to give the tournament selection committee too much credit, but the folks who fill out the field stumbled into what could be the best story of all.

The redemption of Houston — nearly 4 decades after the fact.

All it’s going to take is NC State to continue its white-hot run through the postseason with a win over Marquette, and Houston — the most mentally tough team in the tournament — beating Duke.

That sets up a rematch of the 1983 national championship game, where mega-underdog NC State and coach Jim Valvano beat Houston in the greatest upset in championship game history.

They’ve played 3 times since the national championship game, but never again in the tournament — and NC State has won all 3. The 1983 NC State team had to win the ACC tournament to advance to the NCAA tournament — just like this year’s team, which won 5 games in 5 days to win the ACC and advance.

The 1983 team was 17-10 at the end of the regular season, then won 9 straight games (3 in the ACC tournament, 6 in the NCAAs) — including a victory over the No. 1 overall seed Houston — to win the national championship.

This year’s NC State team was 17-14 at the end of the regular season, and had lost 4 straight entering the ACC Tournament. If the Wolfpack win out, they’ll have won 12 straight tournament games. If you like long shots, NC State might be your team. The Pack are still at +7500 on ESPN BET.

The scene of the crime

The last time we saw Creighton in the NCAA Tournament, the Bluejays were on the short end of 2 odd calls in the final seconds of last year’s 1-point East Region final loss to San Diego State.

Bad call, No. 1: Creighton guard Ryan Nembhard was called for a foul on SDSU’s Darrion Trammell with 1.2 seconds to play and the game tied at 56. Trammel made 1 of 2 free throws to set up …

Bad call, No. 2: An inbound pass on the ensuing play went the length of the court, and Creighton’s Arthur Kaluma and SDSU’s Aguek Arop both jumped for it — and it deflected out of bounds.

Officials reviewed the play and determined that time expired, and no foul was called.

Now Creighton is back after winning 14 games in the wildly underrated Big East, including a 19-point win over No. 1-seed UConn in late February. With a win over Tennessee on Friday, the Bluejays will get another shot at reaching their first Final Four against the winner of Purdue-Gonzaga.

A clash of styles

Illinois is top-10 in scoring offense. Iowa State is top-10 in scoring defense.

Illinois is shooting 57% from the floor in 2 NCAA games. Iowa State is holding opponents to 43% shooting.

Illinois, with its motion offense and ball movement — and multiple players creating shots — has an assist to turnover ratio of 41/15 in the tournament.

Iowa State, with its trapping and aggressive philosophy, and length on defense leading to deflections, has forced 28 turnovers — including 16 steals.

If defense truly wins championships, somebody at Iowa State — Naismith Defensive Player of the Year semifinalist Tamin Lipsey? — better clamp down on Terrence Shannon Jr.