NCAA Tournament betting picks: Finding value on first-round underdogs

The NCAA Tournament’s round of 64 is just a couple of days away.

Ahead of a tournament that’s usually full of early upsets, it’s a good time to evaluate where bettors can find the most value as they try to find the right underdogs to back this weekend.

Several of the best sports betting apps have already released spreads and money lines for all 28 of the known first-round matchups. By comparing those money line underdogs from a variety of sportsbooks to projections from EvanMiya’s tourney odds, we can attempt to extract some value from the market.

Here are the highest expected value bets available as of Tuesday evening for first-round underdogs:

James Madison (+195 at Bet365) over Wisconsin

Implied odds: 33.9%
EvanMiya projection: 43.1%
Expected value: $27.15 on a $100 wager
Approximate break-even point: +132

The 12/5 upset is always a popular pick, and the numbers say picking James Madison to defeat the Badgers will give you the most value of any first-round upset. James Madison enters the postseason having won 13 in a row, which is the nation’s longest winning streak. Wisconsin is a 5.5-point favorite in this game, but there’s significant value on the Dukes to pull off the outright upset.

Western Kentucky (+900 at ESPN Bet) over Marquette

Implied odds: 10%
EvanMiya projection: 12.5%
Expected value: $25 on a $100 wager
Approximate break-even point: +700

No. 15 seeds advancing has become more commonplace in recent years, and Western Kentucky appears to be in the best position to continue that trend this year. The Hilltoppers are facing a banged up Marquette team. All-American Tyler Kolek hasn’t played since Feb. 28 due to an oblique issue, although coach Shaka Smart told reporters on Tuesday that he “plans” to play. Oso Ighodaro is also listed as questionable on EvanMiya’s model, which does have an impact on the model’s projection.

Washington State (+105 at ESPN Bet) over Drake

Implied odds: 48.78%
EvanMiya projection: 53.8%
Expected value: $10.29 on a $100 wager
Approximate break-even point: -116

This is a rare case of the higher seeded team being listed as the underdog in Vegas. The Cougars have earned some impressive wins this season, including a pair of victories over No. 2-seeded Arizona. EvanMiya’s projections have Washington State listed as a 0.5-point favorite — a full 2 points off of where most sportsbooks have the line.

South Dakota State (+1160 at FanDuel) over Iowa State

Implied odds: 7.94%
EvanMiya projection: 8.7%
Expected value: $9.62 on a $100 wager
Approximate break-even point: +1049

Here’s another 15-seed over 2-seed projection for those of you who are hunting for upsets high up the bracket. FanDuel’s line of +1160 is pretty far out-of-step with the other books on the market, so this value may not be there for long. The Jackrabbits last pulled off a first-round upset back in 2013, but they’ve been one-and-done in each of their past 4 appearances in the Big Dance.

NC State (+190 at ESPN Bet) over Texas Tech

Implied odds: 34.48%
EvanMiya projection: 37.60%
Expected value: $9.04 on a $100 wager
Approximate break-even point: +166

Without a miracle run to the ACC Tournament title, NC State wouldn’t have even made the field of 68. The Wolfpack are arguably the hottest team in the country coming off of wins over Duke, Virginia and North Carolina in 3 straight days last week. And yet, EvanMiya’s model still shows value on NC State in this spot against the Red Raiders. NC State’s defense showed some significant signs of improvement during its ACC title run, and the Wolfpack will need to maintain that progress if they want to pull off the upset here.

North Carolina sports betting has officially launched! Don’t miss out on the action during March Madness!