NCAA Tournament futures market: Analyzing best bets for Final Four, national championship props

The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is in the books.

With the Sweet 16 now finalized, it’s time to break down the best-value futures bets for the remaining teams to reach the Final Four, the title game or win the national championship. Several of the best online sportsbooks have already released odds for all 16 teams to reach various levels of the tournament.

After comparing odds from a variety of sportsbooks to BartTorvik’s T-Rank Tourney Odds, here are the highest expected value futures bets on the board as of Tuesday morning:

Houston to win the national championship (+600 on Bet365)

Implied odds: 14.29%
BartTorvik odds: 26.2%
Expected value: $86.20 on a $100 bet
Approximate break-even point: +282

BartTorvik’s model has long been high on the Cougars, and that’s still the case even after the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Houston is the favorite to win the national title this season per BartTorvik with a 26.6% chance to do so (UConn is the next-closest with a 23% chance).

Houston struggled to close out Texas A&M in its round-of-32 game, but eventually got the job done in overtime. The Cougars have the No. 1 defense and the No. 13 offense in the country, per BartTorvik’s adjusted efficiency metrics.

Note: This is the last time Houston will be mentioned in this story, but there are other bets involving the Cougars that have plus-EV according to BartTorvik’s projections. Houston to reach the national title game (+225 on Bet365) and make the Final Four (+110 on Bet365) also carry positive expected values.

Iowa State to reach the national title game (+900 on Bet365)

Implied odds: 10%
BartTorvik odds: 16%
Expected value: $60 on a $100 bet
Approximate break-even point: +525

Iowa State cruised to a Sweet 16 appearance with double-digit wins over South Dakota State and Washington State over the weekend. The Cyclones have been playing like one of the best teams in the country for months, having won 24 of their last 29 games. They made a late charge at a No. 1 seed, but ended up settling for a No. 2 seed.

Iowa State will face Illinois in the Sweet 16 and then would get the winner of UConn vs. San Diego State in the Elite Eight. The betting markets are considerably higher on UConn than BartTorvik, which could explain why there appears to be so much value on the Cyclones in this spot. If Iowa State reaches the Final Four, it would face the winner of the West region — North Carolina, Arizona, Alabama or Clemson.

Iowa State to win the national title (+2000 on FanDuel) or reach the Final Four (+420 on FanDuel) would also be plus-EV wagers.

Clemson to reach the Final Four (+1100 on ESPN Bet)

Implied odds: 8.33%
BartTorvik odds: 10.9%
Expected value: $30.80 on a $100 bet
Approximate break-even point: +817

What if Clemson just keeps winning? That’s the question you have to ask yourself with the Tigers being priced at +1100 to make the Final Four. The No. 6-seeded Tigers are only 2 wins — 2 more upsets — away from reaching the Final Four for the first time in program history.

Clemson will first face Arizona in the Sweet 16. If the Tigers win that game, they’d battle either North Carolina or Alabama in the Elite Eight. Clemson already has victories over UNC and Bama (both on the road) this season, so a trip to the Final Four is very realistic if it can get past the Wildcats in the Sweet 16.

Sports betting in North Carolina is officially legal! Make sure you’re signed up with one of the top North Carolina sportsbooks such as ESPN Bet so you don’t miss out on the action during the NCAA Tournament!