O'Gara: Repicking the rest of the 2024 NCAA Tournament

Let’s try this again.

Filling out a bracket in the wake of the NCAA Tournament field being revealed is equal parts chaotic and moronic. I admit that. Mind you, I admit that as someone who won his bracket pool 2 out of the past 3 years.

You know, not to brag.

Don’t ask me how my bracket is currently going. If you did, I’d tell you all that matters is that my Final Four is still fully intact. Beyond that? Don’t worry about it.

It’s been an incredibly chalky start to the NCAA Tournament. The only expected Sweet 16 teams that didn’t make the second weekend are Kansas (4), Auburn (4), Kentucky (3) and Baylor (3). We could still have 4 1 vs. 2 matchups to decide Final Four berths.

With the opening weekend in the books, I thought now would be a nice time to reset and re-pick the field:

East

Sweet 16 — UConn beats San Diego State (again)
Sweet 16 — Iowa State beats Illinois
Elite Eight — UConn beats Iowa State

I’m quietly looking forward to that national championship rematch as much as any in the Sweet 16. Jaedon LeDee is an absolute bully. He’s a much different player than the guy UConn saw in Houston last year when he attempted 5 shots in 18 minutes. He’s going to be a problem for that UConn front court. Can he get Donovan Clingan in foul trouble? He hasn’t fouled out in a game all year. If there’s ever a guy who can do it, it’s LeDee. If you’re looking for action, San Diego State +11 via DraftKings is one of my favorite bets of the Sweet 16. But I’ll trust UConn’s versatility — on both sides of the ball — to follow last year’s script and win a hard-fought game against the Aztecs.

I originally had Illinois getting to the Elite Eight, but then I remembered that the Illini hadn’t even reached the Sweet 16 since Dee Brown and Deron Williams in 2005. As great as Terrence Shannon Jr. is, Iowa State is the No. 1 team in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cyclones have been ruthless so far in the NCAA Tournament with an average of 60.5 points allowed during the opening weekend. Iowa State moves on.

At this point, it’s difficult to see this UConn team not getting a chance to defend its title in the Final Four. That’s why I have Danny Hurley’s squad finding enough offensive options to handle that Iowa State pressure to move on to Arizona.

West

Sweet 16 — UNC beats Alabama
Sweet 16 — Arizona beats Clemson
Elite Eight — Arizona beats UNC

Is it great that Alabama’s defense has been much improved during the NCAA Tournament? Absolutely. Outside of that second half against Charleston when the Tide played with a double-digit lead, it’s been a major bonus to see the nation’s top-scoring team play with so much purpose on defense. But against the veteran UNC squad, I think a bad 8-minute stretch in the middle of the second half is the difference. Too much RJ Davis down the stretch keeps Alabama from pulling off the upset.

Clemson nearly blew its upset bid against Baylor but is in the Sweet 16 after winning multiple games as an underdog. But doing that 3 times will be too tall of an ask against a loaded Arizona team that got over a major mental hurdle by surviving the opening weekend. It’s wild to think that Arizona hasn’t reached an Elite Eight since 2015. This team, with Caleb Love, will speed up Clemson and turn transition buckets into the difference.

Speaking of Love, I think he gets the last laugh against UNC, his old team. Maybe he’s not the star and it’s San Diego State/2023 March hero Keshad Johnson who comes up clutch in his second consecutive Elite Eight appearance. Whatever the case, Arizona avoids looking ahead to the Final Four in Phoenix and it takes care of the Tar Heels in what feels like a national championship game.

South

Sweet 16 — Houston beats Duke
Sweet 16 — Marquette beats NC State
Elite Eight — Marquette beats Houston

Whenever I think about this Houston-Duke matchup, I think about what I witnessed in Orlando in the Round of 32 last year. Duke wasn’t tough enough for Tennessee and seemed ill-prepared for the physicality. I could see that again, especially against a Houston team that might have some national doubt after surviving that collapse against Texas A&M.

Tyler Kolek’s return for Marquette has been monumental. Without him being at his best, it’d be tempting to pick a scorching hot NC State team to continue its run to the Elite Eight. But I’ll say that DJ Burns and the Wolfpack will hang up the title of “America’s Team” against a Marquette squad that has been rediscovering its identity with Kolek back.

Here’s the thing. In my original bracket, I have Houston winning it all. Admittedly, part of that pick was under the correct assumption that depth issues would prevent them from being a popular title pick. But after watching that A&M game and realizing that the Cougars are so limited that foul trouble led to a walk-on shooting free throws in overtime, yeah, I worry about Houston on a quick turnaround. There’s only so much Jamal Shead can do. I worry that a colossal shooting day awaits and Marquette gets enough quality looks in the half-court to knock off the top seed in the South Region.

Midwest

Sweet 16 — Gonzaga beats Purdue
Sweet 16 — Tennessee beats Creighton
Elite Eight — Gonzaga beats Tennessee

Gonzaga is already the team that has made me feel dumbest. Why I picked Will Wade to take care of the Zags in the Round of 64 is beyond me when Mark Few is automatic to reach the second weekend. So now, I’ll make up for that doubt by saying Gonzaga repeats the formula that contained Hunter Dickinson and Zach Edey doesn’t go off for 30 and 20. That puts too much pressure on Purdue’s guards to keep pace and hit outside shots. Another year, another disappointing ending for Matt Painter.

I’ve got Creighton in the Final Four in my bracket, but after seeing Tennessee work through that dreadful shooting performance against Texas, I believe Rick Barnes’ squad exorcised some demons. Creighton struggles against arguably the best defensive team it faced all year, and while Tennessee is by no means an offensive juggernaut for 40 minutes, timely shooting from the non-Dalton Knecht options is the difference for the Vols. They’re back in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2010.

Tennessee, a game away from its first Final Four berth ever, can’t quite make history. Few’s experience pays off and Gonzaga shakes off a slow start with a 45-point second half. Gonzaga heads back to the Final Four for the 3rd time in the past 7 NCAA Tournaments.

RELATED: Be sure to track the latest March Madness odds via SDS’s Tennessee sportsbooks as the Vols gear up for the Sweet 16 next week.

Final Four

Final Four — UConn beats Arizona
Final Four — Marquette beats Gonzaga
Championship — UConn beats Marquette

Stand up, Big East. The selection committee tried to convince us that the league lacked depth, and the Big East responded by dominating this tournament having a conference matchup in the title game. UConn’s exhale comes by getting through Arizona in Phoenix. Despite the crowd advantage, UConn reminds us all why it’ll play anybody, anywhere, anytime. Hurley taps into the underdog role in that matchup to get to Marquette … again.

UConn has Marquette’s number, but it’s worth remembering that in those 3 victories, Kolek was out for 2 of them. It’s also worth remembering that he had a horrendous night against UConn in an 81-53 loss in mid-February. UConn is an immovable object. The Huskies can play at any tempo, they can make any halftime adjustments and they can play on any stage.

For the first time since 2006-07 Florida, we get a repeat national champ. But unlike Florida, it’s a mostly new squad on board for the repeat.

It’s Hurley’s world and we’re just living in it.