I know what you’re thinking. You’re filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket and you don’t want guidance so much as you want to see how much I agree with you. I get it. I’m in your shoes, too.

The people who agree with me are geniuses and the people who don’t are morons. Obviously.

But my goal today is not to get you to agree with me, though I have won my family and friends bracket pool 2 out of the past 3 years, so put some respect on my name. My goal is to inform and break down the bracket to give you 6-7 minutes away from not working/taking care of your kid(s)/doing dishes/etc.

Fair enough? Alright. Here’s some stuff to know before I share my bracket with you, specific to picking a national champ.

The real KenPom stat that should matter when picking a national champ

There’s a lot of discourse about the KenPom metrics and how the national champions rank in offensive and defensive efficiency. The discourse lies in whether those metrics should be tied back to pre-NCAA Tournament stats or after a 6-game run that will inevitably improve a team’s adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency.

You know what I think is more relevant? Since 1998, 22 of the 25 national champs entered the NCAA Tournament ranked in the top 6 overall in KenPom (H/T Will Warren). The exceptions were 2003 Syracuse, 2011 UConn and 2014 UConn.

So by that logic, let’s keep it simple and say that the national champ is most likely a top-6 team in KenPom right now:

  1. UConn
  2. Houston
  3. Purdue
  4. Auburn
  5. Iowa State
  6. Arizona

That’s probably a good place to start when picking a title team.

The conference tournament stat

It’s pretty simple. A national champion has never been eliminated in the opening game of its conference tournament. Here are the top 4 seeds who lost their opening-round game:

  • Creighton
  • Tennessee
  • Kentucky
  • Alabama
  • Kansas
  • Duke

As much as we talk about the silver lining of an early conference championship exit being the whole “fresh legs” theory, that’s a bit more of a troubling sign.

The national championship breakdown

Last year, UConn broke the mold a bit by being a 4-seed and rolling through the NCAA Tournament. The 21st century suggests that UConn is the only team that seems to do that as a non-top 3 seed:

  • No. 1: 2022 Kansas, 2021 Baylor, 2019 Virginia, 2018 Villanova, 2017 UNC, 2015 Duke, 2013 Louisville, 2012 Kentucky, 2010 Duke, 2009 UNC, 2008 Kansas, 2007 Florida, 2005 UNC, 2002 Maryland, 2001 Duke, 2000 Michigan State
  • No. 2: 2016 Villanova, 2004 UConn
  • No. 3: 2011 UConn, 2006 Florida, 2003 Syracuse
  • No. 4: 2023 UConn
  • No. 5: nobody
  • No. 6: nobody
  • No. 7: 2014 UConn

I’d argue that last year’s UConn squad was underseeded having entered the field ranked No. 4 in KenPom, but still. The point remains. Only 7 non-1 seeds have who won a title in the 21st century, and 5 of them were top-3 seeds. There are places where picking upsets is a necessary evil. Having a 5-seed as your title winner isn’t one of them.

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East

Winner — UConn

Team that can blow up my bracket — Auburn

There’s a world in which UConn becomes the first team to repeat as national champs since 2006-07 Florida. The top-seeded Huskies have somehow been more consistent than they were last year, which is why they’re the favorites to cut down the nets at +450 on DraftKings. But is there also a world in which a ticked-off Auburn squad shows up in the Sweet 16 and plays with its hair on fire? Absolutely. The Tigers defend as well as any team UConn faced all year. As we were reminded in Nashville, there’s a reason Bruce Pearl’s squad won 26 games by double-digits this season.

Iowa State is a trendy pick to win it all coming off the Big 12 title, but I have the Cyclones getting upset by in-state Drake in the Round of 32. That potential matchup in Omaha will be fantastic. Drake enters the field having won 10 of its past 11, including a bubble-bursting takedown of Robbie Avila and Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Conference championship. Drake star Tucker DeVries and his dad, Drake coach and longtime Creighton assistant Darian DeVries are returning home to Omaha. I see that becoming one of the best stories of opening weekend.

West

Winner — Arizona

Team that can blow up my bracket — Long Beach State

Look. Arizona lost to Princeton in the Round of 64 last year. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that lightning strikes twice and the Wildcats again fall to a 15-seed. After all, Long Beach State is on borrowed time more than any team in the entire tournament. Long Beach State coach Dan Monson was fired on Monday of conference tournament week, but stayed with the team … only to rattle off 3 consecutive victories en route to the Big West Conference title. LBSU is dancing for the first time since 2012. His squad already won at Michigan and at USC earlier this year, so playing a big-name school won’t be intimidating.

All eyes are on that potential Caleb Love-UNC reunion in the Elite 8, but I nearly picked Mississippi State to knock off the Tar Heels. It could be shades of 2018 when UNC ran into a tough, physical Texas A&M squad and got bounced in the Round of 32. Mississippi State has a ton of similarities to that group. Go ask Tennessee about that. The Vols fell to the Bulldogs in both matchups this year. The possibility of an early UNC exit was what prevented me from mapping out their path to the Final Four and instead picking the Wildcats to move on.

South

Winner — Houston

Team that can blow up my bracket — Duke

For the longest time, I’d consider myself a Duke apologist in March. I’d pencil the Blue Devils in for a Final Four run without thinking twice. No more. One Final Four appearance in the past 7 NCAA Tournaments will do that to a guy. That aforementioned early ACC Tournament exit scares me, even if NC State was just a team that had an unthinkable week. But at the same time, doesn’t that set up perfectly for Duke to make a run? If the Blue Devils can avoid the Round of 64 upset I predicted against Vermont and navigate their way to the Sweet 16, I worry about how comfortable they are playing at that slow, half-court pace against the Cougars.

The matchup that could be one of the best of the tournament is if we get Kentucky-Marquette in the Sweet 16. With how well the Wildcats played when healthy, one would think they’ll be a popular pick to reach the Final Four. The looming issue, of course, is that John Calipari hasn’t made it past the opening weekend since 2019. Then again, Shaka Smart has won just 1 NCAA Tournament game since 2013 at VCU. A ton could be on the line if those squads meet in a Region semifinal.

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Midwest

Winner — Creighton

Team that can blow up my bracket — Oregon

Yes, we’ve got a potential Dana Altman-Creighton reunion in the Round of 32. That’ll only happen if the Ducks can get past a South Carolina squad that had a whale of a season after being picked to finish last in the SEC. The Pac-12 champs could be playing with house money now that they’re finally healthy. Altman doesn’t get enough credit for reaching the Sweet 16 an impressive 5 times in the past 10 NCAA Tournaments. But Creighton can play with anyone. The Bluejays handed UConn their most lopsided loss of the season, which was the defending champs’ only defeat since the calendar turned to 2024. I think that bodes well to survive Oregon and halt Tennessee’s never-ending pursuit of a Final Four berth.

I could’ve easily picked Kansas as the team that could blow up my bracket. I initially had the banged-up Jayhawks losing in the Round of 64 to Samford. Then I pictured Hunter Dickinson dropping 25 and 15 in a 20-point win against Samford and feeling dumb for perhaps overreacting to his shoulder injury. So naturally, I did a 180 and picked Kansas to avoid an opening weekend upset and reach the Elite 8. That would mean sending Matt Painter and Purdue packing short of the Final Four yet again. Dickinson, the All-American Michigan transfer, has as much experience as anyone in America playing against Zach Edey. Look at Edey’s games when matched up against Dickinson:

  • 2021 — 4 points, 8 rebounds in 14 minutes
  • 2022 — 13 points, 9 rebounds in 17 minutes
  • 2022 — 10 points, 6 rebounds in 17 minutes
  • 2023 — 19 pounds, 9 rebounds in 34 minutes

Mind you, this is someone with 37 games of 20 points and 10 rebounds in the past 2 seasons. Another Dickinson-Edey matchup would be fitting for 2 of the sport’s biggest household names.

Final Four

Semifinals — UConn over Arizona, Houston over Creighton

National Championship — Houston over UConn

Yeah, I went a bit chalky here. Sorry, but the vibe I’ve gotten all year is that there are 2-to-3 truly elite teams and then a Tier 2 that’s far and wide. Houston and UConn are among those 2-to-3 teams. A motivated Arizona squad enters the Final Four with all the local support imaginable playing in Phoenix, but ultimately it can’t keep pace with a team as unselfish as Danny Hurley’s squad. Houston, meanwhile, does what it’s been doing all year: Hound opposing backcourts and limit teams to 1 contested shot per possession. That fuels an ugly, but comfortable win against Creighton to prevent a potential all-Big East national championship.

Is UConn more than capable of repeating? No doubt. But there’s a reason that path is extremely narrow. Even if UConn gets through an East Region that has 3 other power conference tournament champs in it, a relentless, physical team like Houston could await in the title game. Finally, Houston can break through. Credit a year of playing in the deep Big 12 for preparing Houston for the grind that awaits.

Kelvin Sampson can finally be removed from the list of “best coaches to never win a title.”