SEC Bracket Watch: Is there a great team in a really good league?
First things first.
The SEC is a tremendous basketball conference. It might be the best conference in America this season and at a minimum, it is universally lauded as one of the top 3 conferences in the country.
The league has 4 of the country’s top 16 teams in the AP Poll, tied for the most in the country with the Big 12.
The league doesn’t just impress voters and pass the eye test.
The NCAA Committee favored analytics website KenPom ranks the league No. 3 nationally, behind the Big 12 and tradition rich Big East. At Bart Torvik, another website utilized in the NCAA Committee’s selection process, the SEC ranks 2nd, behind only the Big 12.
The league is deep, with as many as 10 teams under consideration for NCAA Tournament bids, according to the website “Bracket Matrix”, which aggregates college hoops bracketology sites and ranks the bracketologists in favor of accuracy (ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the most well known bracketologist, is in the bottom half of bracketologists, for those curious).
A deep, really good SEC is what SEC commissioner Greg Sankey envisioned when, almost a decade ago, he encouraged SEC programs not named Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas and Tennessee to pour resources into the sport, schedule aggressively, and commit institutionally to no longer being an afterthought to the hoops-rich power brokers of the ACC, Big 12 and Big East.
The plea worked, as improved investment, the SEC Network television contract, and a roster of magnificent coaches have generated unprecedented fan interest and a dramatic improvement in NCAA Tournament appearances. In 2017, only 5 SEC teams made the Big Dance. In 2018, that number improved to 8, and it has dropped to no fewer than 6 bids since (once, in 2021).
If Sankey wanted a deep conference with plenty of players in March Madness, mission accomplished.
Now, however, comes the hard part: Making Final Fours and winning championships.
Since Florida cut down back-to-back nets in 2006 and 2007, only blue-blood Kentucky has won the national championship, and the Wildcats have done so just once in that stretch, in 2012. Granted, it’s tough to win 6 games in a row in March and April. If it were easy, the SEC would have more than 3 programs (Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky) with at least 1 national title to their name.
The good news, of course, is that along with storied Kentucky and “new blood” Florida, two other SEC programs have joined the Wildcats and Gators in the Final Four in the past 10 years: South Carolina in 2017 and Auburn in 2019.
The bad news? Auburn’s stirring run to the 2019 Final Four was the last SEC Final Four run, with the league coming up short in the past 3 contested tournaments, including last season, when Alabama was the No. 1 overall seed but bowed out in the Sweet 16.
With the league on the verge of a record number of bids ahead of the 2024 tournament next month, a glass half-full view might be that sooner rather than later, the SEC will break through and return to the Final Four.
Another view, and perhaps not even a glass half-empty one, might suggest that while the SEC is a terrific, deep league top to bottom, it lacks a truly great team. While the NCAA Tournament tends to be about matchups, it also tends to reward great teams, not merely really good ones.
Does the SEC have a team, or even multiple teams, that could make the Final Four this season? Without question. But it’s also possible, if not likely, that the SEC will advance a number of teams to the Sweet 16, as it did last year when Arkansas, Alabama, and Tennessee all advanced to the prestigious second weekend, but fail to have a single team playing on the first weekend in April in Glendale, Arizona.
Rather than a traditional “bubble watch” column, SDS offers its own version of “Bracket Watch.” Including all 9 teams currently slated by Bracket Matrix to receive an NCAA Tournament invitation in our analysis, we evaluate the ability of each team to make a deep run, in order of Bracket Matrix probable seed.
Final Four contenders
Tennessee (17-6, 7-3)
Projected seed (all projected seeds are per Bracket Matrix): 2
Biggest strength: Dalton Knecht. Ask college coaches and analysts alike what Tennessee has been missing in the Rick Barnes era and the consensus answer will be “a go-to bucket getter,” as one Power 6 coach told me last month. “Knecht is what they have not had, as good as they have been. The guy who you hand the game to in the last 10 minutes of the Sweet 16 and say, go get us baskets,” the same coach told SDS.
Knecht ranks 2nd in the SEC in scoring at 20.3 per contest, and he’s posted 25 points or more 8 times, including 37 in defeat at North Carolina and 39 in a blowout win over Florida. Knecht’s usage rate (how often a possession ends with Knecht scoring, shooting, drawing a foul, or committing a turnover) is 28%, the highest number for a Tennessee player since Grant Williams in 2017-18 (28.1%). That Tennessee team won the SEC championship and earned a 3 seed before losing a heartbreaker to Final Four-bound Loyola-Chicago in the second round. Unlike Williams, Knecht can initiate offense from the perimeter with the ball in his hands, and that could be the difference for the Vols this March.
Biggest weakness: Bench production. Rick Barnes plays an 8-man rotation, but the Volunteers don’t get much from their bench, especially offensively, a huge reason that the Vols rank 289th in bench minutes nationally, per KenPom. That’s the lowest mark in the Barnes era, and suggests exactly what you think: The Vols go as Knecht and outstanding veteran guard Zakai Zeigler go, and there’s not much on the bench to save them if those 2 aren’t great.
The Vols will make Tennessee’s first Final Four if: Knecht and a great defense drive them to Glendale. Tennessee hasn’t defended as well in February, surrendering over 1 point per possession in their past 3 contests, including 1.23 in a lopsided loss to Texas A&M. As long as the Vols get back to playing the caliber of defense we’ve grown to expect under Barnes, they will be in every game they play in March. That’s when having a talent like Knecht can be the difference between another “too early” exit or the program’s first Final Four.
Alabama (17-7, 9-2)
Projected seed: 3
Biggest strength: Getting buckets. Alabama is the best offensive basketball team in the country. They rank 1st in KenPom and Bart Torvik Adjusted Offensive Efficiency , they have the SEC’s leading scorer in All-American candidate Mark Sears, and they do it by creating high reward 3s or high quality 2s. Per Hoops Lens, the Crimson Tide have attempted 727 3-pointers, connecting on 38.2% of those shots, which ranks a fantastic 15th in the country. They have also created 628 shots at the rim,, leaving just 157 2-point jumpers. That’s ruthless efficiency, and why Alabama may win another SEC title under coach Nate Oats.
Biggest weakness: Getting stops in the paint. If only every team were as cut and dry as the Crimson Tide. When Charles Bediako surprisingly left for the NBA Draft (he went undrafted), it left a gaping hole in the Alabama defense, which, despite the portal wizadry of Oats, the Crimson Tide have not solved. Teams have exploited Alabama in the paint, making 49.8% of their attempts on the season, a number that has been worse in 6 of of Alabama’s 7 losses (Ohio State 54%, Clemson 54%, Purdue 50%, Creighton 68%, Arizona 50% and Tennessee 58%. Grant Nelson, a 6-10 transfer from North Dakota State, has been awesome offensively, but he has not successfully adjusted to defense at the Power 6 level. Alabama will struggle to get stops through March. Can they score enough to win anyway?
Alabama makes the program’s first Final Four if: Like Miami a year ago, the Crimson Tide have multiple guards go off in March. The Hurricanes were the latest team to prove that the old adage remains true — great guard play wins in March. With Sears, prolific scorer Rylan Griffin, and jack-of-all-trades Hofstra transfer Aaron Estrada, there’s a little bit of the Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack and Jordan Miller feel to the Alabama backcourt. That could be enough for the Crimson Tide to make the breakthrough, despite the leakiest defense since year 1 of the Oats regime.
Auburn (19-5, 8-3)
Projected seed: 3
Biggest strength: An All-American center and length on defense. Auburn can really guard, thanks to Bruce Pearl constructing a roster with tremendous length and multiple players who can guard at least 4 spots on the floor. The Tigers rank 4th in the country in KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and have been the best defense in the SEC in league play. At the center of everything is Johni Broome, one of the best players in the country, who dominates the defensive glass and is the sun around which Pearl’s offense orbits. A great passer, Broome has 47 assists this season, many of which come from his ability to face up and see over a defense from the elbow or just beyond the 3-point arc. Jaylin Williams, having the best season of his career, joins Broome to give the Tigers one of the nation’s best frontcourts.
Biggest weakness: Auburn does not have an elite guard. Aden Holloway, a consensus 5-star recruit, is the best of Auburn’s guards and a special talent, but we saw in Saturday’s loss at Florida just how overwhelmed he can be at times against veteran, physical guards. Florida’s Zyon Pullin feasted on Holloway, turning his hips frequently to get in the paint where he forced help and picked apart Auburn’s defense. This wasn’t a one-off. In all 5 Auburn losses, the Tigers have lost the battle at guard, from Baylor loss, where JaKobe Walter and RayJ Dennis scored 43 of Baylor’s 88 to their stunning loss at Appalachian State, where Myles Tate and Donovan Gregory at the Tigers alive for 30 of App State’s 69 points to their conference losses, to Alabama (Mark Sears 22 points, 8 assists), Miss State (Josh Hubbard 17 of Miss State’s 64), and Florida (Zyon Pullin 19 points, 6 rebounds). Without plus-guard play, Auburn could be vulnerable in March.
Auburn returns to the Final Four for the second time under Bruce Pearl if: Broome dominates and the Tigers start to hit more 3s. Auburn doesn’t shoot the 3 well, an anomaly for a Pearl team. The Tigers hit just 32.9% of their 3s, a number that ranks 217th in the country. Auburn has made 5 3s or less in all 5 of their losses, shooting just 24% from deep in those games. When they make 3s, they are incredibly hard to beat because Broome and Williams control paint proceedings and the Tigers defensive pressure makes them a marvelous team with the lead. Broome, the nation’s No. 2 player behind Purdue’s Zach Edey in KenPom, will probably be marvelous in March. He just needs a little more help to make this team a national title contender.
South Carolina (21-3, 9-2)
Projected seed: 5
Biggest strength: Controlling tempo. Lamont Paris, a longtime Bo Ryan assistant at Wisconsin, understands the value of controlling tempo. The Gamecocks’ deliberate pace (355th in tempo, per KenPom) is a difficult challenge for opponents in the SEC, which features 4 of the nation’s 50 fastest teams (Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, and LSU). South Carolina guards you for 30 seconds defensively and they are patient offensively, screening and rescreening and reversing the ball until they find a mismatch they want to attack. South Carolina wants to play a low-possession, physical game, and when they limit possessions to 65 or less in a game, they are an astounding 14-1 this season. That will travel to neutral floors as well as it has in SEC play.
Biggest weakness: There’s not a surefire All-SEC player or star. This isn’t a bad thing, necessarily, but the truth is games get tighter in March and it is fair to wonder who Paris will want with the ball with the game on the line. Bart Torvik says the Gamecocks’ best player is Ta’Lon Cooper, a do-everything guard who had scored in double figures in 6 consecutive games before deferring to teammates in the Vanderbilt game, where he scored just 5 points but dished out 7 assists. SDS thinks it is Meechie Johnson, the team’s leading scorer at 14.1 points per game despite an extended shooting slump in SEC play. By March, though, it might be emerging freshman Collin Murray-Boyles, a physical, freakish forward who is averaging over 21 points per game over South Carolina’s past 3 games. Murray-Boyles minutes were limited in non-conference play as he adjusted to defense collegiately — but he’s played over 20 minutes a game in SEC play and is a double-double machine who can really attack the basket and finish.
South Carolina makes a second Final Four if: Murray-Boyles continues to emerge and Johnson starts hitting shots. The computers aren’t in love with the Gamecocks yet, as South Carolina ranks just 45th in KenPom efficiency. But the Gamecocks have only 1 loss (Alabama) by more than 5 points, and they have blown out Kentucky and won at Tennessee in the past month. This is absolutely a Final Four contending team today, and thanks to Murray-Boyles, it is a team that is getting better by the game. A Final Four in year 2 of the Paris era seems fantastical, but that’s where the best story in college basketball could end this year.
Sweet 16/Elite 8 contenders
Kentucky (16-7, 6-4)
Projected seed: 6
Biggest strength: Electric offense. John Calipari said he would fix the offensive woes in Lexington, and he has, thanks to a team that is lethal in transition (1.14 points per possession, per Synergy, best in the SEC), protects the basketball (1st in the SEC in assist to turnover ratio), and is prolific from deep (41%, 1st in the country). There’s not a team in America with better freshmen guards than Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham, either.
Biggest weakness: Kentucky can’t get stops. Ever. One of the best tools as we approach March Madness in the analytics world is Bart Torvik’s “Last 10” efficiency number. Kentucky’s defense ranks a horrifying 199th in defensive efficiency in its past 10 games. Kentucky is 5-5 in those games, with 3 losses at Rupp Arena. There’s no big man Calipari can trust against the pick-and-roll, and aside from Ugonna Onyenso, no big who isn’t manhandled consistently on post-ups. This, plus young guards who struggle to keep drivers in front, has created a free for all of easy two point looks for opponents. Calipari says the team is “bult for March,” but unless they guard better inside, this will not prove prophetic.
March outlook: Kentucky will score on anyone they play in March, but once they wear blue in the second round, generating stops will define their season.
Texas A&M (15-8, 6-4)
Projected seed: 9
Biggest strength: Offensive rebounding and straight-line drives. The Aggies can’t shoot, but that doesn’t matter as much when you rebound 43.3% of your misses, the best offensive rebounding mark in America. The Aggies are also magnificent at getting to the free throw line, thanks to the physical driving ability of preseason SEC Player of the Year Wade Taylor IV, who draws 5.6 fouls per 40 minutes. Throw in the sudden explosion of guard Boots Radford, who has averaged 25 points a game and picked up 3 KenPom game MVPs in 3 games since Buzz Williams elected to allow the super senior to continue playing despite being arrested on felony fleeing and eluding police charges on Feb. 2, and you have the type of veteran backcourt that can will you to wins in March.
Biggest weakness: Did we mention the Aggies can’t shoot? If Radford cools off or the Aggies have a night where they aren’t as dominant on the offensive glass, they could be in trouble in March. The Aggies rank 346th, worst in the SEC, in effective field goal percentage and at 27.2%, they shoot the 3 worse than any team in the Power 6. Those numbers will make winning 4 in a row almost impossible in March, but Taylor IV and Radford, as well as the Aggies arsenal of offensive rebounders, will give them a chance to claw their way to the second weekend.
March outlook: With 2 outstanding guards, one of the SEC’s best in-game coaches, and a ferocious group on the glass, this team can give a 1 or 2 seed fits in Round 2. They could also miss a ton of shots, have an off night on the glass, and go home after Round 1 again.
Florida (16-7, 6-4)
Projected seed: 10
Biggest strength: Marvelous guards. Florida’s starting guard duo of Walter Clayton Jr. and Zyon Pullin is the best in the SEC. Pullin, who ranks 2nd in efficiency in the SEC behind only Alabama’s Sears, per Bart Torvik, leads one of the nation’s most efficient offenses. Pullin leads the SEC in assist to turnover ratio and he averages 15.6 points per game, 2nd on the team to the sharpshooting Clayton (16 ppg). Florida has depth at guard as well, with preseason All-SEC selection Riley Kugel beginning to come out of his early season funk. Embracing a role as a 6th man, Kugel scored 22 points in Florida’s rout of Auburn over the weekend, and his decision-making in pick and roll and driving situations has improved markedly since December. Kugel is also Florida’s best defender, and his improved contributions are a big reason Florida quietly ranks 9th in the country in efficiency over its past 10 games, per Bart Torvik.
Biggest weakness: Frontcourt physicality and defense. Florida is a tremendous offensive rebounding team, ranking 2nd nationally in grabbing misses, behind only Texas A&M. That’s what makes the lack of interior physicality on the other end mystifying, but it has been a problem for the Gators. Florida’s biggest player, Micah Handlogten, has improved on this front, but was consistently pushed around inside in early season losses to Virginia, Wake Forest and Kentucky. Alex Condon is a huge talent, but he has struggled to adjust to playing pick-and-roll defense in D1 basketball, often getting too deep in his drops to affect shots. Tyrese Samuel is steady, but he’s undersized as a 5 — meaning Florida needs physical play from Condon and Handlogten if they hope to avoid being bully-balled out of March.
March outlook: Elite guard play wins in March. Thanks to the best guards in the SEC, the Gators will be a tough out if the defense continues to improve and the frontcourt continues to rise to the physical challenges that frustrated Florida early in the season.
First weekend cameos
Ole Miss (18-5, 5-5)
Projected seed: 11
Biggest strength: Shot selection, perimeter shooting. Chris Beard has maxed out a roster that lacks a star but has played smart basketball, especially offensively. The Rebels have won the “shot quality” metric in 21 of 23 games, per the website Shot Quality, a sign that the team creates and takes good shots, even in defeat. Matthew Murrell (40%) and Jaylen Murray (42.5%) give the Rebels two assassins from beyond the arc as well, where the team shoots over 38%, the 10th best mark in the country.
Biggest weakness: Rebounding, frontcourt defense. Ole Miss is the SEC’s worst on the defensive glass, ranking 353rd nationally in defensive rebounding. That’s poison to a Chris Beard team, which plays at a deliberate tempo and tends to generate enough stops on first chance possessions to win games. Unfortunately, the Rebels give up more 2nd-chance points than any team in the Power 6, per Hoops Lens, a product of having 2 bigs in Moussa Cisse and Jamarion Sharp who are good shot blockers, but not capable rebounders.
March outlook: It’s a Chris Beard team, so don’t count them out, but a defense that ranks 130th nationally would be one of the worst in the field in March, and the rebounding woes mean that unlike say, Texas A&M, Tennessee, or Florida, the Rebels can’t win if they don’t hit jump shots.
Mississippi State (16-8, 5-6)
Projected seed: First Four, 11
Biggest strength: Tolu Smith. The Bulldogs have one of the best big men in the sport in Smith, who averages 8 rebounds a game and leads the nation in fouls drawn per 40 (7.5, more than Purdue All-American Zach Edey). Smith is also a terrific passer, averaging 1.8 assists per game, a career high. Defensively, Smith shuts the interior down, leading the SEC’s 2nd best defense (10th in KenPom) by freeing up all 4 of his teammates to help on perimeter shooters, trusting Smith to do the dirty work inside. The Bulldogs allow opponents to shoot just 28.9% from beyond the arc, a number that ranks top 10 in the country, and they do a great job of rebounding the many misses (top 5 in the SEC in rebounding margin).
Biggest weakness: Offense when Josh Hubbard doesn’t make shots. Hubbard, a 5-11 in platform shoes jitterbug guard from Madison, Mississippi, has been one of the nation’s best freshmen, averaging 14.8 points per game and shooting 36% from deep on outrageously high volume (186 attempts!). When he doesn’t score, State is cooked — as happened in losses to Alabama (7 points), Kentucky (3 points), and South Carolina (13 points, 2-for-8 from deep). Chris Jans doesn’t have depth at guard or a wing who can change the game, which means teams gang up on Tolu and dare Hubbard to beat them. If he misses shots, State is in trouble.
March outlook: State hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA Tournaments since 2008-2009, but that’s possible in Year 2 under Jans, as long as the Bulldogs keep feeding Smith inside and finding ways to free up Hubbard for perimeter jump shots. The defense means State could win a game if they advance too, but the limitations of this team offensively likely cap the ceiling at the Round of 32.