25 Bold Predictions for the B1G in 2024
Welcome back to another piece of Tradition’s annual Top 25 Week coverage! The annual endeavor is just about wrapped up, but we still have a few topics to cover before we embark on the rest of the offseason.
Today’s piece tackles 25 bold predictions related to the upcoming Big Ten season. While other pieces have tackled the full scope of college football, this piece will tackle predictions specifically related to teams and players who hail from the B1G.
How does the B1G factor into the Heisman Trophy discussion? Will the league make good on Matt Rhule’s claim of 4 teams in the College Football Playoff? Can Ohio State end its B1G title drought?
Those are just a few of the topics you’ll find throughout this list, but we also dive into the full scope of the B1G. So, without further ado, let’s get to it!
25. Maryland continues historic streak of bowl games
Mike Locksley already has delivered some history for Maryland with bowl victories in 3 straight seasons. Now, he’s trying to get the Terrapins back to a bowl game for 4 straight seasons, something that has only happened twice in program history: 1982-85 under Bobby Ross and 1973-78 under Jerry Claiborne. (Ralph Friedgen produced 2 separate streaks of 3 consecutive bowl appearances.) The tricky stretch for Maryland this season will be the 2nd half of the season with road trips against Minnesota, Oregon and Penn State while getting USC, Rutgers and Iowa at home. The Terps will scrape together 6 wins somehow, but it will not be easy.
24. Rutgers finishes the season ranked on the AP Poll
Rutgers has not been ranked on the AP Poll at any point since 2012, and the last time the Scarlet Knights finished the season ranked was in 2006 — the best season of Greg Schiano’s first stint and also the most recent year Rutgers won 10 or more games. Now, the sky is the limit for Rutgers with a core group of returners, key reinforcements, and — most important — no B1G East Division to contend with. The schedule this season gives Rutgers a golden shot at a strong season and a chance to wind up on the edge of the AP Top 25 at season’s end.
23. Nebraska’s bowl drought finally ends
I know this song has been sung before, but this time things truly feel different … right? Matt Rhule had Nebraska at 5-7 in his first season, and one has to believe an improved wide receiver room and better QB play (either in an improved Heinrich Haarberg or freshman Dylan Raiola) has to translate into at least 1 more win and its first bowl appearance since 2016.
22. Iowa reaches 10 wins yet again
In the 4 full-length seasons since the start of 2019, Iowa has won 10 games 3 times. The best offensive output in any of those 10-win seasons was 25.8 points per game in 2019. (That mark ranked 88th in the country.) I know that trend is a risky bet, but the defense should keep things rolling this fall and I do anticipate a better, more creative offense. The schedule also sets up nicely for the Hawkeyes to stay near the top of the B1G standings and hit 10 wins.
21. Michigan loses to Texas but registers signature upset in the B1G
Michigan has no shortage of high-profile games on the docket this season. That’s the nature of being the defending champs, but the pressure is on early in the season. All eyes will be on Ann Arbor on Sept. 7 for the B1G vs. SEC matchup between the Wolverines and Texas. Unfortunately, I have Michigan taking an L there, but it’s not all bad. I also think the Wolverines will stun Oregon in Ann Arbor to jumpstart a wild November. Michigan is likely due a step back from the national title, but the Wolverines still have talent, and look for travel to take a toll on teams at some point in the season.
20. Northwestern regresses — hard
Northwestern will have a unique venue this season, but that might be the coolest part of the Wildcats’ season. David Braun had Northwestern at 8-5 a season ago after a 4-20 overall mark in Pat Fitzgerald’s last 2 seasons. The problem? Northwestern gave up more points (293) than it scored (287), a sure sign they outperformed expected results a bit. Northwestern also gets some traditional B1G powers over the final 6 games of the season in a brutal stretch.
19. Illinois plays better but falls short of a bowl game again
It was hard for Illinois to find a consistent performance on either side of the ball in 2023 with the 96th scoring defense in the country and 83rd scoring offense. Some of that was injury-related with a new starting quarterback in Luke Altmyer. And after an offseason of growth and reloading, I truly think the Illini will play better under Bret Bielema this fall. The problem is I don’t see 6 wins on the schedule with tough conference road games early and late in the season.
18. Jonathan Smith makes a case to be the B1G’s Coach of the Year
Don’t get it twisted. I’m not setting elite expectations for Michigan State in Jonathan Smith’s first season, but fans may be surprised by what he accomplishes in Year 1. If that happens, he’s bound to receive some attention for Coach of the Year. Just look at the voting last season when David Braun was the consensus Coach of the Year after leading Northwestern to 7 regular-season wins. Circumstances are always considered for COTY voting, and Smith inherited a dumpster fire. Getting the Spartans close to a bowl game would speak volumes.
17. Cade McNamara bucks the injury bug for a relatively healthy season
Look, I will not predict any player to make it through a season fully unscathed due to the physical nature of the sport. But Cade McNamara is due for a break, right? After appearing in 8 total games across the 2022-23 seasons, it’s time for some good news around McNamara, and the Hawkeyes could sure use it.
16. Nebraska will not lead the B1G in turnovers
Nebraska has to turn things around in terms of taking care of the ball. Otherwise, Rhule’s status as a head coach renowned for rebuilding programs will take a hit. The Huskers committed 31 turnovers in 2023, meaning they averaged over 2.5 turnovers per game. The good news is I think Nebraska cuts down on the miscues in a major way in 2024. Simply not leading the conference in turnovers may not sound bold, but considering where the Huskers were last season, I say it fits.
15. B1G defensive linemen will dominate the 2025 NFL Draft
OK, this one is a bit more about what comes after the 2024 season, but the topic will play a major role in the 2024 season. In fact, this year’s version of Ohio State vs. Michigan could feature 5 DL (defensive ends and defensive tackles) with a Day 1 or Day 2 grade. That’s without getting into the rest of the conference and players in the league who could be listed as an edge when it comes to the draft. The depth up front on the defensive side of the ball is one reason why the elite teams in the B1G will be well-suited for the Playoff, and it’s possible the DL position on the All-American teams is dominated by the league.
14. Will Howard elevates Ohio State’s offense without a QB controversy involved
Two things can be true when it comes to Kyle McCord in 2023: He wasn’t as bad as some made it seem (he finished 2nd in the B1G in yards per game and overall rating), and it was clear the Buckeyes needed an upgrade for 2024. Will Howard’s numbers do not immediately scream “upgrade,” but the tools and physical makeup say otherwise. With his dual-threat ability and veteran knowledge, I have faith Howard can develop under Ryan Day, which is my biggest knock on McCord’s performance as a starter. Howard doesn’t have to be the best pinpoint passer with the football, provided he takes steps every week and makes quick decisions with the football.
13. No B1G head coach will be fired midseason
The B1G has not had a ton of in-season coaching changes in recent history, though Mel Tucker (2023), Paul Chryst (2022) and Scott Frost (2022) were unable to make it through their final seasons in their respective jobs. This fall, things are unique, and I think that lends itself to every head coaching making it through the regular season. Five B1G head coaches are in their first season, and another 4 are in Year 2. I don’t believe those 2nd-year coaches are entirely safe in a new era of football, but a midseason firing seems unlikely. There are 9 other jobs to account for, but none of that group feels likely to lose their job before December without some wildly unforeseen losses.
12. Ryan Walters’ tenure at Purdue will be in jeopardy by season’s end
Ryan Walters may be capable of becoming a quality head coach in time. Unfortunately, it feels doubtful that Walters will find the kind of success Purdue is hoping for. And not all of that is Walters’ fault. Jeff Brohm invigorated the program with a specific style on offense, and the Boilermakers were more of a full rebuild than quick retooling after Brohm’s departure. Purdue was 4-8 a season ago and enters 2024 with a last-place finish on the B1G’s preseason poll, finishing behind in-state rival Indiana under first-year coach Curt Cignetti. Even looking past last year’s struggles, the schedule in 2024 does the program no favors with nonconference games against Notre Dame and at Oregon State. Can Purdue exercise patience in the new-look B1G era? We’ll soon find out.
11. Drew Allar makes the Year 2 jump Penn State is looking for
I have spent some time this offseason dissecting Drew Allar and the concerns associated to his 2023 numbers in his first season as a starter. I still have concerns, but I am ready to predict he will make the jump the Nittany Lions are looking for. Consider that the only B1G QB to throw a touchdown with fewer interceptions than Allar a season ago was Wisconsin’s Braedyn Locke. (Locke attempted 152 passes in 5 games. Allar attempted 389 as a 13-game starter.) All Penn State really needs out of Allar is a bit more explosiveness and accuracy in the passing game, and you can bet Andy Kotelnicki has the blueprint in mind to make that happen.
10. CJ Hicks delivers breakout season for OSU defense
CJ Hicks arrived on campus with all the fanfare of a 5-star in-state prospect in the class of 2022. He has just 14 tackles across his first two seasons, but that stands to change in 2024. Even if Sonny Styles lands the starting job opposite Cody Simon, Jim Knowles has spoken publicly about a need to get Styles, Simon and Hicks on the field together in some fashion. No matter his role, Hicks stands poised for the breakout season he has yet to deliver in Columbus.
9. Nicholas Singleton has his best season yet under Andy Kotelnicki
Nicholas Singleton has 2 seasons of experience. One as a dynamic freshman averaging nearly 7 yards per carry and another with less than 800 rushing yards while seeing his efficiency drop. The good news is Singleton was better as a receiver in Year 2, so there’s some evidence he’s growing as an overall playmaker. Considering Penn State hired Andy Kotelnicki to find more explosive plays, I think Singleton will benefit in a major way.
8. USC pulls off 1 signature upset
Who knows what the future holds for Lincoln Riley at USC? It would not surprise me if he leaves the Trojans by the time 2025 rolls around, but I currently lean toward thinking he will give it 2 seasons in the B1G before making a major decision. (And I doubt USC is ready to hit a full reset once again unless 2024 is just an utter debacle.) In fact, look for the Trojans to pull off at least 1 marquee victory this fall from the group of games against LSU, Michigan, Penn State or Notre Dame.
7. Donovan Edwards fails to crack 1,000 yards rushing
I can already see the torches and pitchforks assembling in Ann Arbor, so let me quickly explain myself. My prediction related to Donovan Edwards’ rushing production is based on two things: How he will be used offensively, and how opponents will defend Michigan. Edwards will continue to be used in Michigan’s passing game this fall, so it’s possible he eclipses 1,000 total yards, but I don’t think he will get 1,000 yards on the ground. It’s also likely the opposition will try and stack the box to slow down Edwards’ rushing attack while forcing a new QB for the Wolverines to make tough throws.
6. Jeremiah Smith goes for 1,000 receiving yards as a freshman
Forget everything you know about freshman receivers at Ohio State when it comes to Jeremiah Smith. Yes, Smith is that good, but it is also more about opportunity than anything else. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka were highly acclaimed prospects in Ohio State’s 2021 recruiting class who made a very limited impact as true freshmen. That’s because the Buckeyes had a trio of veterans who each went for 900+ yards in 2021. Ohio State does not have that kind of veteran depth at WR this season, so look for Smith to get major opportunities from Week 1 onward. And considering the Buckeyes have a legit chance at playing 15+ games this season, 1,000 yards is far from absurd.
5. Will Johnson fails to capture B1G Defensive Player of the Year
Will Johnson has been a major topic of the offseason spotlight. He received the highest player rating in EA Sports College Football 25 before being named the preseason B1G Defensive Player of the Year. Sorry to burst everyone’s bubble, but that’s not going to happen. A cornerback has not won the league’s top defensive honor since 2000, and it’s really not that hard to understand why. Johnson is a game-changer when quarterbacks test his coverage. So you can bet QBs will not test his coverage very often throughout 2024. In fact, Johnson’s teammate Mason Graham, a defensive lineman for the Wolverines, probably has a better shot at winning the award for his ability to directly impact plays on a regular basis.
4. Ohio State reclaims the conference title but not without hiccups
No matter how you slice things, it’s hard for me to envision a world where Ohio State is denied a return to the top of the B1G. Desperation breeds motivation, but this will be far from easy. In fact, a mid-October road trip to face Oregon could bump the Buckeyes out of the position of favorite in the conference. This also looks like the kind of season where just 1 conference loss could put your spot in the title game in jeopardy. With a deeper schedule and teams like Oregon, Penn State and Michigan also in the league, it’s possible to see a tie atop the rankings now that divisions are gone. I still have Ohio State getting to Indy — and winning — but be prepared to sweat this one out, Buckeyes fans.
3. B1G falls short of Matt Rhule’s 4 CFP teams proclamation
I like Matt Rhule’s message that the B1G should get 4 teams in the new-look Playoff every season. Unfortunately, the Playoff Committee is unlikely to agree, especially when you consider the various automatic qualifiers in play. Barring something wildly unforeseen, 3 B1G teams should reach the Playoff, but the drop from No. 3 to No. 4 in the conference could be steep in the eyes of the committee.
2. The B1G produces a pair of Heisman finalists
There’s probably some scoffing about 2 of the 4 Heisman Finalists coming out of the B1G this season but consider this: Since 2021, there have been 2 players from a program that will be in the B1G this fall at every Heisman Trophy ceremony, and that includes 3 finalists from the new B1G in 2023. Dillon Gabriel is just about penciled into the Heisman Trophy ceremony barring injury, so all it will take is one other star to step up in the B1G. And don’t count out non-QB players from the mix with star power in the B1G at running back and on the defensive side of the ball. You can track all our Heisman Trophy odds here.
1. The B1G goes back-to-back in national titles
Why not go all the way with our bold predictions for the season? I’ll call the shot now that a team from the new B1G will win this year’s national title, likely needing a win over Georgia or Texas from the SEC to make it happen. I won’t decide between Ohio State or Oregon in this piece, but the national title winner in a long season with an expanded Playoff is going to be more or less a “last man standing” kind of championship. Depth is key, and don’t be surprised if backup QBs or second-string defenders are required for pivotal moments.
