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Betting Stuff: Best Bets for Week 13 of the 2024 college football season
Published:
I gave my thoughts on the Week 13 schedule earlier this week.
Here are the games I’m targeting in Week 13.
(As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.)
- Last week’s record: 3-2
- Overall season record: 25-26
Ole Miss -10.5 at Florida (-115 via BetMGM)
I don’t like the spot for the Gators. Under the lights, The Swamp can be a game-changer. But a sleepy noon kickoff changes the atmosphere. Florida is coming off a big win over LSU but, in that victory, the defense faced 92 (!!!) plays and was on the field for almost 42 minutes. In that game, the 2 starting safeties and 2 starting corners played every single snap. The corner situation is still an issue for the Gators, so Dijon Johnson and Trikweze Bridges could be looking at another long day of work. And, against an Ole Miss offense that wants to push the tempo and attack through the air, that’s a concern. Off a bye week, Ole Miss will be as healthy as it has been in weeks. Wideout Tre Harris is back after an extended absence, rounding out a strong receiver group. The defense will be the best Florida has seen all year The Rebels have too many advantages.
James Madison -7 at Appalachian State (-110 via Caesars)
The Dukes lead the nation in takeaways (25) and in turnover margin (plus-19). Only Army has fewer turnovers. On the other side, only 6 teams have given the ball away more than App State has this season. The Mountaineers are minus-11 in the turnover department, with only 9 takeaways and 20 giveaways. They don’t pick passes off, either. Six of their takeaways are fumble recoveries — probably the most volatile area in the sport. App State also doesn’t prevent explosive plays. The defense this season for the Mountaineers is arguably one of the worst in the country.
Army +14.5 vs. Notre Dame (-106 via FanDuel)
Notre Dame’s defense is outstanding. And its 25 takeaways this season are tied with James Madison for the most in the country. But Army has only lost 2 fumbles all year and quarterback Bryson Daily has thrown 1 interception. The Navy game was a laugher because Navy threw up on itself and couldn’t hold onto the football. The fumbles were uncharacteristic and they produced a somewhat flukey margin. So long as Army doesn’t do the same, this is going to be an incredibly low-scoring game between 2 teams that want to pound the ball, bleed the clock, and win time of possession.
Texas A&M -2.5 at Auburn (-105 via ESPN Bet)
The unsettled quarterback situation isn’t enough to fade the Aggies in this spot. Auburn will have trouble moving the ball. The Tigers consistently have long fields to work with. And because the line struggles to get much push, the Tigers aren’t in enough third-and-manageables. With a quarterback whose reputation is that of a turnover machine, A&M’s defense poses a significant problem. The Aggies are in the top 20 nationally in havoc rate, per Game on Paper. Nic Scourton, Shemar Stewart, and Cashius Howell will create problems.
Vanderbilt +7.5 at LSU (-110 via ESPN Bet)
The ‘Dores are coming off a bye week, which should be huge for quarterback Diego Pavia, who has been duct-taped together in recent weeks. LSU has lost 3 in a row and still can’t corral the quarterback. A&M’s Marcel Reed ran for 62 yards and 3 scores on the Tigers, then Alabama’s Jalen Milroe ran for 185 and 4 scores. In Week 12, Florida’s backs ran over LSU for 116 yards on 14 carries. Now the Tigers get a Vanderbilt team that loves to slow it down, run the ball, and make games uncomfortable. Vandy is 7-3 against the spread this season while LSU is 3-7.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
