Last week, I asked who would disappoint. There were more than a dozen games involving ranked teams that had a spread of at least 10 points.

BYU lost to an unranked team. Kansas State lost to an unranked team. Washington State, Louisville and LSU lost to unranked teams. Oregon was nearly upset. Texas found itself in a fourth-quarter fight. Boise took its time separating from San Jose State. Clemson was nearly knocked off.

Once again, a slate of games that didn’t look that exciting turned into a full-day buffet of intrigue.

This season has been nothing but spectacular. And, now, we’ve reached a 2-week stretch that always looked like it would be outstanding. What’s in store?

Here’s what I’m paying attention to in Week 13.

  • Last week: 3-7
  • 2024 season: 57-48-1

(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)

Indiana at Ohio State

Ohio State -12 | Total: 52

The big one in the Big Ten is finally here. Ohio State and Indiana will be one of the most consequential in the Big Ten title discussion. It is also a crucial game for Indiana’s Playoff hopes. Indiana’s schedule is ranked as the 109th toughest in the country, per FEI. Should Indiana lose in a rout, the Hoosiers could very well end the season without a single win over a team receiving votes in the AP poll. The résumé would be picked apart, even as a 1-loss team. If Indiana can’t win, it has to keep the margin respectable. Surely the Hoosiers know this.

From a profile standpoint, these are 2 of the best teams in the country, though they’ve gotten there in different ways. Ohio State sits at No. 1 in Game on Paper‘s net adjusted EPA-per-play metric. Indiana sits 7th. Ohio State ranks 2nd in net success rate. Indiana ranks 3rd. Indiana ranks 3rd in offensive success rate. Ohio State ranks 4th. Indiana’s defense has been outstanding. But, again, Indiana hasn’t played anyone of consequence. Using FEI again, Ohio State’s strength of schedule ranks 20th in the country.

We have one team that has been tested multiple times. The Buckeyes played the No. 1 team in the nation on the road and had a chance at the end to win the game. They played another top-5 opponent on the road and won by 7.

And we have another team that has not been tested in the slightest. At least, not to the degree Ohio State has. Indiana has played 1 team that sits in the FEI top 40. Ohio State has played 4. I do wonder if this game plays out like the Texas-Georgia game earlier in the year. Texas was clearly not ready for the Bulldogs’ combination of size and athleticism in the front seven and the Longhorns’ offense short-circuited.

Indiana will not have seen anything like the athletes Ohio State will present. JT Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams and Jack Sawyer are different. If Jim Knowles sends heat, Indiana could be disrupted early. The counter here is that Indiana’s pass game is one of the quicker ones in the country. Among qualified quarterbacks, Kurtis Rourke has 1 of the 25 quickest triggers, with an average time to throw of 2.54 seconds on his drop-backs. And Indiana has to like the matchup between Elijah Sarratt and Ohio State corner Denzel Burke. He has given up 27 receptions on 32 targets this season, with an average of 13.5 yards per reception allowed. It seems boring, but if Indiana can’t neutralize the Ohio State defensive front, this will go haywire in a hurry.

Conversely, does Ohio State believe Indiana is a serious threat? That might be a significant storyline here. Ohio State is at home, it is the higher-ranked team, and it probably knows it is going to the College Football Playoff regardless of what happens. Ohio State has Michigan coming up, which will always be a bigger game regardless of how good Indiana may or may not be.

This number opened at 11.5 on Sunday. It moved to 12 by Monday morning. I’d love to be able to get 13 but that might not happen. For now, I’m leaning the Hoosiers at 12.

Lean Indiana +12

Ole Miss at Florida

Ole Miss -10 | Total: 55.5

Florida is a fascinating team. With even just an average schedule, the Gators are certainly going to a bowl game. If they start DJ Lagway from the jump, maybe the A&M game goes differently. With Lagway right now, they’re playing like one of the 30 or so best teams in college football. And they’re not even fully healthy.

The Gators took Georgia to the wire and everyone thought maybe Billy Napier’s group had finally turned the corner. Then they got properly blasted by Texas, though Lagway didn’t play. I couldn’t get over the way the defense looked and I picked LSU a week ago. Florida responded by handling the Tigers. At this point, LSU looks entirely overrated. The line fell apart and the Florida front feasted.

But Shemar James and Tyreak Sapp (6 combined TFLs, 3 sacks) show up again, they could give Ole Miss something to worry about. Ole Miss has given up sacks this season and currently sits outside the top 25 in havoc rate allowed.

Going the other way, the Ole Miss defense might be the best the Gators have faced this season. The Rebels lead the nation in sacks and tackles for loss, and they rank fourth in passes defended.

Bet under 55.5 total points

Wisconsin at Nebraska

Nebraska -2.5 | Total: 42.5

Nebraska lost yet another 1-possession game in Week 12 to USC on the road. A 28-20 loss dropped the Huskers to 9-34 in games decided by 8 points or less since 2018. Matt Rhule is 2-9 in such games.

After starting 5-3 last season, Nebraska lost each of its past 4 games — all of them by 7 points or less — to miss out on a bowl. This season, the Huskers started 5-1 but have lost each of their past 4 games. The previous 3 were all by 8 points or less.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin has lost 3 in a row to put its own bowl eligibility in jeopardy. On Sunday, coach Luke Fickell fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo. The Badgers managed 13 points in a loss to Penn State, 10 points in a blowout at Iowa, and then just 13 points against Oregon at home. The Ducks scored 10 in the 4th to rally and keep their unbeaten record intact. Wisconsin produced just 88 yards from 27 plays in the second half.

Who can make fewer mistakes? Which team will be the one that simply doesn’t lose the football game? Because it is likely to be close. Wisconsin will want to run, but Nebraska’s defense is toughest against the run. Dylan Raiola threw 38 times in his first game called by Dana Holgorsen — just the second time this season he has had more than 35 pass attempts in a game. Wisconsin’s defense does well against the pass. Neither team has a positive turnover margin on the season. Neither generates a ton of havoc. Neither excels on third down.

Between the 2 sides, I’m backing the visitors. Nebraska has shown time and time again it cannot close out a tight game.

Bet Wisconsin +2.5

James Madison at App State

James Madison -7 | Total: 60.5

James Madison seems to rounding into form with 4 wins in its past 5 games, 3 of which have come by double digits. Across those 5 games, JMU has 10 takeaways and only 2 giveaways. The Dukes lead the nation in takeaways (25) and in turnover margin (plus-19). Only Army has fewer turnovers.

Only 6 teams have given the ball away more than App State has this season. The Mountaineers are minus-11 in the turnover department, with only 9 takeaways and 20 giveaways. They don’t pick passes off, either. Six of their takeaways are fumble recoveries — probably the most volatile area in the sport.

Nor does App State prevent explosive plays. The defense this season for the Mountaineers is arguably one of the worst in the country. James Madison is going to score, and if App State gives the ball away, the Dukes will cover this number easily.

Bet James Madison -7

Colorado at Kansas

Colorado -3 | Total: 59.5

The Buffs are 8-2 against the spread this season. Talk about turnarounds? Focus on what has happened in Boulder. A week after his team took previously unbeaten BYU to the wire, Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham said Colorado was, without a doubt, the best team Utah has faced this season. The Buffs are up to 17th nationally in net adjusted EPA per play.

Kansas is 51st in the same metric. But the Jayhawks are ascending. After 6 straight ATS losses to begin the season (and 5 outright defeats), Kansas has gone 4-0 against the spread. It has beaten the number by an average of 12.1 points per game during that stretch and won consecutive games outright as an underdog.

The Jayhawks will try to knock off a 3rd ranked opponent on Saturday. Kansas has won a high-scoring affair (45-36 over Iowa State) and a grind-it-out battle (17-13 over BYU) in recent weeks, something that should have the locker room brimming with confidence. But Kansas remains very pedestrian defending the pass and that’s what stands out here.

Colorado has scored at least 34 points in 6 of its past 7 games.

(Kansas has done so only 3 times all year — against FCS Lindenwood, against Houston and against Iowa State. Two of those 3 games featured defensive touchdowns.)

To beat Colorado, Kansas must slow the Colorado passing attack, and there isn’t much evidence it can do so. Even during this run, Kansas has given up an average of 266 passing yards a game and a total of 8 passing touchdowns. The Jayhawks don’t generate havoc on defense and now they’ll face the best quarterback/receiver duo they’ll see all season.

Of the previous 4 opponents, Iowa State is the only offense to rank in the top 50 in EPA per drop-back. The Cyclones threw for 383 yards. I don’t see the Jayhawks slowing down the CU pass game.

Bet Colorado team total over 29.5

Penn State at Minnesota

Penn State -12 | Total: 45

A loss to Rutgers before a bye week rocked the boat a bit for the Gophers, who had grown into one of the Big Ten’s hottest teams throughout October. They nearly won at Michigan, beat USC, beat UCLA on the road, beat Maryland, then went to Illinois and won by 8. But the ground game collapsed against Rutgers and the Gophers saw their win streak float away.

Penn State comes in off a thrashing of Purdue during which Tyler Warren was the star of the show.

Minnesota has hung its hat defensively on limiting chunk plays in the pass game. Can the linebackers and safeties cover up Warren? UCLA’s Moliki Matavao had just 23 yards against Minnesota and went for 104 a week later. Michigan’s Colston Loveland had just 41 yards on 4 receptions. Iowa’s Luke Lachey had 3 catches for 9 yards. If Minnesota can do well enough on early downs, it might be able to hang.

But quarterback Max Brosmer has to play clean. He had a fumble and 3 turnover-worthy passes against Rutgers in the loss. Minnesota’s ground game has been wildly inconsistent this season, and it probably won’t get rolling against a PSU run defense that ranks fifth in EPA per run faced.

Still, Minnesota is 7-2-1 ATS this year and 2-1-1 as an underdog.

During his tenure, PJ Fleck is 5-5 against the spread when his Gophers are at least a 10-point dog. That includes a 1-3 mark at home.

BYU at Arizona State

Arizona State -3.5 | Total: 48.5

BYU is coming off its first loss. Arizona State is coming off a massive win that earned the program its first spot in the AP poll since 2021. Now feels like a good time to fade the Sun Devils and back the Cougars. And, fortunately, BYU is heavily discounted.

The Cougars had been flirting with disaster for weeks before Kansas upended their dream season, 17-13, in Provo last Saturday. This Week 13 matchup with the Sun Devils now determines whether BYU will even play for the Big 12 Championship. If the focus was slipping, it is right back where it needs to be.

BYU has the edge to me, so I like getting the Cougars as a dog.

Bet BYU +3.5

Missouri at Mississippi State

Missouri -7.5 | Total: 57

This is an interesting week for Missouri, one that will test the culture Eli Drinkwitz has built in CoMo. The SEC Championship Game is off the table. The College Football Playoff is gone. The Tigers are playing for a fancier bowl package and nothing more at this point. Brady Cook is still banged up. And in consecutive weeks they have had games with wild emotional swings in the closing moments. They came out on the winning side against Oklahoma. They fell against South Carolina. Now they go on the road to face a 2-8 Mississippi State team. Where does Missouri draw its motivation from?

Mississippi State is 0-6 in league play and 0-7 this season against power conference teams. But it has put a scare into several quality opponents. Michael Van Buren was bad in the loss to Tennessee — his first bad game of the season, really. Dating back to the Georgia game, Van Buren was improving each week.

Missouri will get after Van Buren on defense. It shouldn’t have issues scoring on offense. I just wonder how much is left in the tank. The Tigers are 0-3 in road games this season against other power conference teams, but they’re also 4-2 ATS as a favorite. I think the culture is fine.

Bet Missouri -7.5

Army vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame -14 | Total: 44.5

This game opened at 16.5 points on Sunday and that felt like a gift. So it was no surprise to see it tighten to 14 by Monday. To anyone who jumped on the early number, good for you. It’ll probably be hard for people to separate the 51-14 win over Navy from this game, but that game was over after the first Navy possession. A team that hadn’t had any fumble issues all season fumbled on its first 2 possessions and suddenly found itself in a 14-0 hole. The Midshipmen turned it over 6 times, which is just not something to bet on again.

Notre Dame’s defense is outstanding. And its 25 takeaways this season are tied with James Madison for the most in the country. Army has lost 2 fumbles all year and quarterback Bryson Daily has thrown 1 interception. If it happens again, it happens again and we take the L. But my numbers tell me Army can hang with Notre Dame more than Navy could.

Can the Black Knights win? Stopping a running quarterback shouldn’t be an issue for an Army defense, but this Army team also ranks 75th nationally in EPA per run faced this season. The defense will have to create takeaways when Notre Dame goes to the air. Army has 14 interceptions on the season, tied for the ninth-most in the FBS.

Notre Dame is merely average defending the run. Again, turnovers are the gambit. The Irish have 15 interceptions this year and the No. 1 pass defense in the country when judged by EPA per dropback faced. When Daily goes to the air, can Notre Dame’s athletes make a play? If not, Notre Dame is waiting for fumbles that might not come while Army plods down the field and bleeds 7 minutes off the clock. If this number goes back above 15, take it.

Lean Army +14

Vanderbilt at LSU

LSU -8 | Total: 54.5

Vanderbilt as anything greater than a 1-touchdown dog will always be a play for me. Vanderbilt as an 8-point dog against a cratering LSU team? Yes, please. The Commodores have been blown out 1 time this season. LSU does not have anywhere close to the same caliber of defense as South Carolina. The ‘Dores are coming off a bye week, which should be huge for quarterback Diego Pavia, who has been duct-taped together in recent weeks. LSU has lost 3 in a row and still can’t corral the quarterback. A&M’s Marcel Reed ran for 62 yards and 3 scores on the Tigers, then Alabama’s Jalen Milroe ran for 185 and 4 scores. In Week 12, Florida’s backs ran over LSU for 116 yards on 14 carries. Vanderbilt can win this game outright.

Bet Vanderbilt +8