Betting Stuff: Best Bets for Week 6 of the 2024 college football season
Last week marked a second consecutive 3-0 week for Best Bets. I’m looking to keep the positive momentum going in Week 6, where there aren’t as many heavyweight collisions but there are still several profitable matchups on the slate. I gave my thoughts on the Week 6 schedule earlier this week. Here are the games I’m targeting in Week 6.
(As always, the best price or the best line at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.)
Navy -9.5 at Air Force (-110 via DraftKings)
Navy ranks 32nd nationally in net success rate and 12th in adjusted EPA per play. Air Force ranks 109th and 116th, respectively. The Midshipmen have been on a roll to begin this season, scoring 49 points, 38 points, 56 points, and then 41 points in 4 games. They upset Memphis on Sept. 21 and have just been crushing point spreads. In the last 3 games against FBS competition, Navy is beating the spread by an average of 18.3 points a game.
In steps an Air Force team that cannot sustain itself offensively, consistently loses the field position battle, gets gashed with the pass, and has scored a total of 29 points in 3 games against FBS competition. Navy has been rolling behind quarterback Blake Horvath, who has 15 touchdowns, 1,087 yards of total offense in 4 games, and the nation’s best Total QBR. I just don’t see a scenario where Air Force puts up much resistance.
San Jose State -6.5 vs. Nevada (-115 via FanDuel)
Nevada doesn’t shut down opposing passing attacks and quarterback Brendon Lewis is not a guy I trust to throw the football. San Jose State is well-equipped to take advantage of the Wolf Pack’s defensive deficiencies. Quarterback Emmett Brown and wideout Nick Nash — one of the most productive receivers in the country this season — should throw the ball all over the yard on this Nevada team. San Jose State ranks 15th nationally in EPA per dropback, per Game on Paper. Nevada ranks 106th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Pack are going to struggle to keep pace.
Missouri +2.5 at Texas A&M (-110 via ESPN Bet)
Texas A&M is battle-tested at this point in the season and Missouri is not. Given the recent close calls for the Tigers, I’d say it’s fair to have the Aggies as a slight favorite in a game that’ll be played in one of the more daunting venues for visitors in all of college football. I still feel comfortable picking Missouri to win this football game.
There’s something to be said about knowing how to win close games. Missouri has won 7 straight games that were decided by 8 points or less. And the Tigers have a bit more to trust here. The defense has been a nice surprise under new leadership and the team ranks fourth nationally in net success rate, per Game on Paper.
You can point to Missouri’s struggles to generate explosive plays in the opening portion of the season but with Luther Burden and Brady Cook, there’s too much experience there to not figure it out. Explosives have been an issue for the Aggie defense, so this weekend, off a bye, would be a perfectly logical spot for the Tigers to answer that specific question. Alternatively, when you can run for 5.2 yards a pop against the likes of Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College, and Vandy, there isn’t much incentive to get exotic.
While Marcel Reed has been effective at operating Collin Klein’s run-first system, he’s been underwhelming as a passer and Missouri should be able to take advantage of that.