I gave my thoughts on the Week 8 schedule earlier this week. Here are the games I’m targeting in Week 8.

(As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.)

  • Last week’s record: 3-2
  • Overall season record: 12-15

Army -15.5 vs. East Carolina (-110 via FanDuel)

The Black Knights are winning by an average of 29.8 points per game throughout their 6-0 start. Quarterback Bryson Daily is fourth nationally in QBR, piloting an offense that leads the nation in success rate. And Army isn’t just 6-0 on the field, it is 6-0 against the number with an average margin of 14.8 points. Even at 15.5, I don’t think the market has caught up to just how good this Army team is.

East Carolina completely shut down its first 3 opponents on the ground, but has been trending the wrong way since. The Pirates have given up 519 rushing yards in the last 3 games. Charlotte ran for 311 yards and 6 touchdowns to win 55-24 last weekend as an 8.5-point dog. I’ve been riding Army all season and I will continue to do so until they give me a reason not to.

Maryland +7.5 vs. USC (-115 via bet365)

I’ve been telling readers since the preseason to fade USC. I backed Minnesota as a home dog against the visiting Trojans in Week 6, and I’m doing the same with Maryland here. On one hand, it has just been profitable to back the home team in the Big Ten this season when the visitor has to travel 2-plus timezones.

While the start was encouraging, the last few results threaten to derail the season for USC. Lincoln Riley is bad as a road favorite throughout his career, and USC is just 3-6 against the spread under Riley coming off a loss. The Trojans lost a stunner (from their point of view) on the road at Minnesota and then returned home and suffered a heartbreaking defeat in overtime against Penn State.

It remains to be seen if USC can get up off the mat. The depth in the front seven is being tested, with starting defensive end Anthony Lucas now lost for the season. Against a Terps passing attack that boasts 2 really good receivers and loves to operate between the hash marks, Lucas and linebacker Eric Gentry would be useful. So would Bear Alexander. Maryland is going to want to throw, and I don’t like USC’s options to pressure the quarterback. That’s concerning considering USC already ranks 120th nationally in passing success rate allowed this season, per Game on Paper. Maryland also ranks in the top 30 nationally in EPA per rush allowed and top 25 in havoc rate, so USC might have a hard time dictating terms in this game.

Texas -4.5 vs. Georgia (-110 via bet365)

I was a little surprised to see this number bump all the way up to 5 on Wednesday. I got Texas at 3.5 earlier in the week. But I don’t necessarily mind the difference here. If you removed the names of the programs and just looked at what the numbers show through the first 6 games for each of these teams, this wouldn’t be a difficult decision.

Texas might be a buzzsaw. While I wrote earlier in the week that we probably don’t know if Texas has any warts yet because no opponent has been equipped to actually test the Longhorns, I think Texas has a view advantages in this matchup with Georgia that will lead to a statement victory. Georgia has been worse than I expected on defense, with a young secondary that has been quite vulnerable and a gaping hole in the “future top-10 pick off the edge” department. Mykel Williams’ limited availability has hurt Georgia, and now it has to do something it hasn’t yet done this season against the best offensive line in the country.

Indiana-Nebraska under 50.5 total points (-105 via ESPN Bet)

Indiana has a defense that has given up the sixth-fewest scrimmage plays of 10 yards or more in the country. The Hoosiers don’t give the football away, and they ask their opponent to be consistently clean as they drive the length of the field. The IU defense has only allowed 11 red zone trips in 6 games. On the other side, Nebraska will be the first legitimate defense IU quarterback Kurtis Rourke has faced to this point in the season. Maryland and Northwestern are the only IU opponents whose defenses rank in the top 50 in SP+. Nebraska ranks first. Nebraska is the only team in the country that hasn’t yet allowed a rushing touchdown. The Huskers are fourth in rushing efficiency allowed (2.7 a carry) and 18th in passes defended per game (5.3).

To me, this has the makings of a slow-paced defensive slug fest. With the recent changes to college football, explosives are going to lengthen the game while plodding offenses will just completely take the air out of the ball. Both these defenses will force the opposing offenses to plod along.

Arkansas-LSU over 56.5 total points (-110 via bet365)

Brian Kelly is 21-2 straight up against unranked teams throughout his LSU tenure. LSU has one of the most explosive passing attacks in the country (16th in EPA per dropback) led by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. Arkansas, meanwhile, is 8-1 against the spread in its last 9 matchups with AP ranked teams. Against Tennessee 2 weeks ago, Arkansas earned a 5-point win as a 14.5-point dog by flummoxing the Tennessee offense. Something has to give.

With Taylen Green presumably healthy and ready to roll, I like this game to produce points. Green’s health was the difference-maker in this one for me. I have a hard time seeing Arkansas get sustained pressure on Nussmeier, and I think LSU might try to throw on early downs to mix things up against an Arkansas defense that has been better against the run than the pass. Both of these offenses have advantages on paper doing what they want to do against the other defense.