As Steve Sarkisian stood on the podium in the main ballroom at the Omni Hotel in Dallas, he said he never wanted his offense to grow “stale.” Adapt, tweak, self-scout, and introduce counters. “We do have a very versatile offensive team,” he said. But this offseason put that unit in flux.
Texas said goodbye to Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, and Jordan Whittington. All 3 were drafted into the NFL. They represented quarterback Quinn Ewers’ top 3 receiver targets last year. Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders was drafted too. So was running back Jonathon Brooks.
Five players caught at least 25 passes last season for the Longhorns. All of them left. Ewers (15th in Total QBR last year) is viewed as an upper-echelon quarterback, but he’ll need some time to mesh with a completely revamped passing attack.
But there was little reason to be concerned about the Texas offense because, for one, Sarkisian is still the one calling the plays and Ewers is still the one directing them, but perhaps more importantly Texas looked like it was set up to have one of college football’s best rushing attacks.
The Longhorns bring back a veteran offense line, anchored by a future first-round pick at left tackle and a center who has made 41 career starts. And a backfield with budding stars Cedric Baxter Jr. and Jaydon Blue gives Sark some real punch.
For years, Texas has pumped out elite, NFL-caliber running backs. D’Onta Foreman was a star in 2016. Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson terrorized defenses from 2020-22. Jonathan Brooks turned in a 1,139-yard season last year — the fifth consecutive season a Sarkisian offense produced a 1,000-yard rusher.
Baxter looked like the next great back in a sparkling lineage.
I asked around in Dallas at Media Days. The general feeling was that 6-foot-1, 220-pound sophomore could be special. After all, he was the opening-day starter at tailback for Texas last season — the first true freshman running back since Ricky Williams in 1995 to start an opener.
A foot injury in the Alabama game handed the job to Brooks, who happily ran with it and didn’t look back, but Baxter still ran for 659 yards at 4.8 per carry in his first collegiate season.
With Brooks off to the NFL, the ceiling was the roof for Baxter. Blue (398 yards and 3 scores last year) was the perfect complement. If Ewers took some time to get on the same page with his imported receivers, Texas would be fine leaning on its ground game early to set up everything else.
Sarkisian, ever the innovator, could tweak enough to make it work.
Then, a week into fall camp, Baxter tore the PCL and LCL in his left knee. Earlier this week, Texas revealed that backup Christian Clark had torn an Achilles tendon in practice and would miss the season.
When I published my conference title picks at the beginning of the month, I had Texas making the SEC Championship Game. At the time, the Longhorns were -110 to make the title game at DraftKings.
At the time of publication, the Longhorns are still -110 to make the game. They’re still standing with Georgia as the only 2 schools with an implied probability north of 50%. Ole Miss has the third-shortest odds at +260.
So, nothing has changed, right?
What do we make of Texas losing RB1 and RB4 in the span of a week? Anything? Nothing?
Blue was a 4-star recruit in the 2022 class, ranked as the No. 15 tailback in the industry-generated 247 Composite. In 2 seasons, he has 431 rushing yards and 3 scores at 5.4 yards a carry. He has 80 rushing attempts in 23 career appearances. He has played competitive snaps through his first 2 seasons and his advanced analytics (from PFF) look pretty favorable.
He’ll be the No. 1 option. He’ll probably be a fine No. 1 option. But Texas needs him to stay healthy. After him, the Longhorns have a true freshman and a sophomore with 12 career touches.
Before the Baxter injury, Texas had a red zone problem to solve.
Texas made 61 trips to the red zone last season — tied for the 12th-most in the country. But the Longhorns only turned 31 of those trips into touchdowns — a 50.8% conversion rate that was the 14th-worst in the country.
Pro Football Focus tracked 56 contested targets thrown up for Texas pass-catchers last season. Worthy and Sanders made up 34 of those. Sanders led the team with 7 contested catches.
Does the 5-foot-11 Isaiah Bond or the 5-foot-8 Silas Bolden provide Sarkisian with a “lob it up” option in the red zone? Probably not. The 6-foot Matthew Golden 6-4 tight end Amari Niblack need to be reliable options in crowded spaces.
“We missed some opportunities that I thought we could’ve taken advantage of that could dramatically change that number,” Sarkisian said of the red zone deficiencies. “The play-caller — me — probably, maybe at times tried too hard (on) different things. You just get back to the drawing board. Like every year, you have things and areas that are things you want to work on, you want to place an emphasis on and we’ve definitely done that.”
You wonder how big a role Baxter was going to play in that improvement.
Without him, the receivers have to be better faster. (Zooming out from the 20 to the 40-yard-line presents mostly the same picture — Texas has to be better in scoring situations. The Longhorns ranked in the 52nd percentile in points per scoring opportunity last fall.)
What’s one way to indirectly help your red zone offense? Avoid it. Score before you snap it inside the opponent’s 20. In this way, Bond and Bolden should be a great help.
Texas was already a fairly explosive offense (71st percentile last year) but there’s room for improvement in the pass game. The Longhorns produced 10 yards on 35.2% of their passes, which ranked eighth nationally. Only 11.4% of pass plays went for at least 20 yards — 40th nationally.
Ten of Bond’s 48 catches went for at least 20 yards, a quarter of his targets were beyond 20 yards downfield, and a third of his yards came after the catch. Eleven of Bolden’s 54 catches produced at least 20 yards, a fifth of his targets were beyond 20 yards downfield, and a third of his yards came after the catch.
Beyond them, Texas has a pair of former 5-star receivers in Johntay Cook and Ryan Wingo.
We might see Texas in more 4-receiver sets than we’re accustomed to seeing from a Sarkisian offense.
There’s enough talent here that Texas can probably work around the loss of Baxter. Texas is still a heavy favorite (-230) to make the College Football Playoff, and I don’t think the Baxter injury changes them so much that UT suddenly falls off a cliff offensively. The juice on the Longhorns to miss the CFP isn’t worth the squeeze yet.
But it’s hard to deny the offense is worse off today than it was when it started fall camp. If you have a ticket on the Horns to make it to Atlanta, it might be time to hedge and throw some money behind Ole Miss (+280) or Missouri (+550) to sneak into the game.
The Tigers are a sleeper team with an inside track. They don’t play Georgia or Texas or Ole Miss. They get A&M and Alabama on the road, but winning the home games and splitting those 2 big road trips might be enough to force a tiebreaker or backdoor into the game altogether.
Moreover, Missouri has plus odds at DraftKings to make the College Football Playoff (+175). If the SEC produces a 10-win team, It’s hard to imagine that team not getting in. And if Missouri makes the conference title game, they’ll make the 12-team field with or without a conference title.
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CLAIM OFFEROther notable fall camp injuries that might affect the CFP or conference title races
>> Rueben Owens, Texas A&M running back — The Aggies lost a former 5-star running back to a season-ending lower-body injury in a scrimmage last weekend. Rueben Owens was expected to be one of the Aggies’ top offensive options after an SEC All-Freshman campaign a year ago that saw him produce 743 all-purpose yards. Le’Veon Moss, Amari Daniels, and Stanford transfer EJ Smith are the top candidates to replace Owens in the backfield. Daniels is the most experienced, with 161 carries. Moss has 123 carries in 2 seasons. Smith has promise, but repeated injuries derailed his Stanford tenure. I had A&M with 5 conference wins, and I think they can consistently be a pain for the top teams in the league. The Aggies get trips from Missouri, LSU, and Texas on the season. They can certainly play spoiler, but they need a running game to do so. A thin backfield also makes it all the more important quarterback Conner Weigman makes it through a full season. If A&M beats Playoff-hopeful teams while missing key pieces, it’ll be a major knock on those teams’ Playoff chances. I’m thinking Notre Dame and Missouri in particular.
>> Teddy Prochazka, Nebraska left tackle — The Huskers (+5000 at ESPN Bet) aren’t expected to contend for the Big Ten title in 2024, but they’re going to have a role to play in the larger conference picture. Nebraska faces 3 ranked Big Ten squads on the road. With a 5-star freshman quarterback, there’s hope NU can win more than it has in years and make it back to a bowl game. So much hope that the win total for NU is 7.5 at ESPN Bet. Teddy Prochazka tore his ACL in practice a little over a week ago, putting a major question mark at left tackle. The Huskers’ options for Dylan Raiola’s blindside protector are Turner Corcoran, Gunnar Gottula, or Tyler Knaak. Corcoran is a senior who has been wildly inconsistent. Gottula is a redshirt freshman. Knaak is a sophomore. The under, which has +105 odds at the time of publication, was probably the right play even before the Prochazka injury but it’s even more so now. You might also have to take a look at Iowa +1000 to make the Big Ten title game at DraftKings. The Hawkeyes miss Oregon, Michigan, Penn State, and USC. They get Wisconsin and Washington at home. The Nebraska game at the end of the season, given how close that rivalry has been of late, may have actually been one of the bigger toss-ups on the schedule. An 8-1 record in conference play puts Iowa in position to force a tiebreaker in the Big Ten.
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>> Charles Jagusah, Notre Dame offensive tackle — I’m fading Notre Dame in light of news that sophomore left tackle Charles Jagusah will miss the season. The Irish repped a true freshman at left tackle in practice as they try to replace Jagusah, and they have questions at the other tackle spot as well. Pair that uncertainty with a quarterback who is coming off a significant ankle injury and you land in murky waters. Notre Dame gets tested right off the bat against Texas A&M, and the Aggies at -125 on the moneyline (bet365) feels pretty safe in that game. After that, Notre Dame has major games against only Florida State and USC. With access only to an at-large bid, Notre Dame probably can’t lose more than twice. There’s no room to drop a game against the likes of Louisville, Stanford, or Georgia Tech. At the time of publication, Notre Dame to miss the Playoff had +138 odds on FanDuel. That’s probably worth a look.
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Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
