Betting Stuff: Opening thoughts on opening lines for the CFP quarterfinals

The first round of the first 12-team College Football Playoff was marred by blowouts. The higher-seeded Notre Dame tail-whipped Indiana. The higher-seeded Penn State jumped all over SMU. The higher-seeded Texas ran wild over Clemson. And the higher-seeded Ohio State stone-walled Tennessee.

The Playoff promised to give more access, but it never felt likely to produce a true Cinderella like what we see during March Madness. With the quarterfinals set, the 4 best teams from the opening round all advanced.

Here’s what I’m paying attention to in the quarterfinal round of the CFP.

• CFP first round: 1-3
• 2024 regular season: 68-56-1

(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)

No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State — Quarterfinal, Dec. 31 (Fiesta Bowl)

Penn State -11 | Total: 52 | Moneyline: Penn State -425, Boise State +330

This is the most interesting game of the entire Playoff bracket to me because it has the potential to fundamentally alter the CFP’s structure going forward.

During the first round, no one enjoyed the games. Instead, they argued online about whether teams that weren’t playing deserved to be over the teams that were. Lane Kiffin and Paul Finebaum got their one-liners off and the biggest voices in the sport focused on what was wrong with the structure instead of what was right (the environments were insane). The format will assuredly get tweaked going forward, but we might see a radical alteration if Boise State gets blasted.

The point of the auto-bid was to ensure access to everyone. The narrative that too many “better” teams were excluded in the name of equity is already pervasive. If a team that got a first-round bye gets the doors blown off, there may be no hope left for the teams outside the SEC and the Big Ten.

And I think the Broncos might get the doors blown off. Vegas certainly thinks it’s possible. The moneyline at the time of publication implied a 23.3% chance of winning. Only Arizona State has worse odds in the quarters. Bill Connelly’s SP+ gives Penn State an 11.5-point edge.

In a 38-10 win over SMU, Penn State smothered SMU’s offense. It limited the ground game to 58 net yards. Adjusted for sacks, SMU averaged only 2.8 yards per carry. As harsh as it may seem, quarterback Kevin Jennings, brilliant all throughout the regular season, cost his team. Jennings threw 3 interceptions, 2 of them returned for touchdowns for Penn State’s first 2 scores of the game. Penn State’s offense never really got “rolling,” though it did find traction as the game wore on. The SMU defense played well, I thought, but the crowd noise crippled Jennings and later a few second-half drives into Penn State territory.

SMU made 4 trips to the red zone and came away with 3 points.

Penn State will not have the benefit of its home crowd in this quarterfinal matchup, but it might be able to keep Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty off the field with a ball-control offense. Boise State’s defense is a problem. The Broncos give up far too many explosive plays and that was a major issue in the Oregon game. The Ducks had an 18% explosive play rate that day and hit a couple of huge shots in the pass game. While Boise State has struggled on third down at times this year, Oregon was far better on first down. Dillon Gabriel completed all 11 of his passes on first down against the Broncos and the Ducks averaged 9 yards per play. And that was before Oregon’s offense started operating at peak efficiency.

In the MWC title game, Boise State started 6 defensive backs, 3 down linemen, and a 6-foot-3, 253-pound edge rusher. On the year, the group ranks 33rd nationally in rushing success rate allowed. Penn State should be able to run the ball effectively on early downs, which will give Andy Kotelnicki access to some of his gadget plays for Tyler Warren.

Bet Penn State -10.5 (-115 via ESPN Bet)

No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State — Quarterfinal, Jan. 1 (Peach Bowl)

Texas -14 | Total: 52 | Moneyline: Texas -650, Arizona State +470

In a 38-24 first-round win over Clemson, the Texas offense finally came alive. The Longhorns scored on their opening possession and then just kept scoring. A 31-3 run in the second and third quarters pushed the Tigers to the absolute brink, and though they responded, once the game got within 7 points in the fourth quarter, Jaydon Blue immediately smoked everyone for a 77-yard touchdown to put Texas back up by multiple scores. Texas stuffed Clemson at the 1-yard-line on the ensuing possession and that was that.

Blue’s explosion highlighted the key takeaway from the game. The Texas run game was outstanding. Behind 146 yards from Blue, 110 from Quintrevion Wisner, and 35 from Jerrick Gibson, UT piled up 306 rushing yards and 6.7 per carry (adjusted for sacks). The offensive line dominated Clemson in the trenches and everything else blossomed as a result. Quinn Ewers played mostly mistake-free ball. Gunnar Helm went off. And Texas controlled things.

UT’s defense was consistently gashed by Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik, though, and it was interesting to see a team that had, for weeks, excelled on the defensive side of the ball and underwhelmed on the offensive side sort of flip roles. Yes, Texas came up with big fourth-quarter stops, but it was diced for a 12-play, 75-yard, 6:46 drive to open the game and ended up yielding 336 yards through the air. Clemson did nothing on the ground, but it was facing a huge deficit and was without tailback Phil Mafah.

Arizona State has to be able to run the ball to run its offense smoothly. The Sun Devils have a 62% run rate on the year and Sam Leavitt has one of the highest play-action usage rates (38.3%) of any qualified FBS quarterback (per PFF). The only top-25 run defense ASU has faced this year (by EPA/run) limited star tailback Cam Skattebo to 73 yards on 25 carries. Arizona State beat Kansas State that day thanks to 176 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 receptions from Jordyn Tyson.

Tyson has since been knocked out of the lineup with a season-ending injury.

Texas also has its own injury situation to fret over. Right tackle Cameron Williams got hurt in the second quarter and center Jake Majors left the game on the very next play. Coach Steve Sarkisian said afterward that Majors might have been available if needed later on in the game, but Williams was not. Texas rotated guys in on the offensive line and kept mashing Clemson. Does the same happen against an ASU defense that is 59th nationally in rushing success rate allowed?

More than anything, I’m curious if Texas has to outscore ASU in the same way it had to outscore Clemson. That was a surprise from the first-round game. Prior to it, Texas had shut teams down with an ultra-athletic unit that won early downs and limited the chunk plays through the air. And even though that group didn’t really show up against Clemson, Texas opened as a 2-score favorite over a red-hot ASU team.

Does Skattebo score from the 1 to make it a 7-point game? I think that’s a worthwhile question.

Bet Arizona State +14 (-110 via Caesars)

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon — Quarterfinal, Jan. 1 (Rose Bowl)

Ohio State -2.5 | Total: 54.5 | Moneyline: Ohio State -135, Oregon +114

To be completely honest, I didn’t expect Ohio State to be here.

I discounted 2 things I probably shouldn’t have in the Buckeyes’ game against the Vols. The first was that Ohio State couldn’t do what it did coming off the Michigan loss in 2022 because Will Howard is not CJ Stroud. That didn’t matter at all. Howard played the game of his life and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly completely opened things up for him to take downfield shots. The Buckeyes just breezed through the Tennessee secondary in the first half, en route to a 21-0 lead in what felt like the blink of an eye.

The second was that Tennessee could actually hurt the Buckeyes with its pass game. Dylan Sampson was never really available and the ground game suffered. Then Tennessee’s first- and third-leading receivers left the lineup and the Vols just fizzled out. The first quarter was a comprehensive beatdown because of Howard but also because of the Buckeye defense. They mauled Tennessee at the line of scrimmage. Nico Iamaleava didn’t complete a first-quarter pass and the Vols ended the opening 15 minutes with 16 yards of offense.

Ohio State emphatically answered the “how would it respond” question that had been beating down the walls of the Woody Hayes Athletic Center for weeks.

Now it gets a rematch with Oregon, the clear-cut best team from the regular season and a team Ohio State lost to by 1 point on the road. Howard was great that day too, completing 28 of his 35 passes for 326 yards, scoring 3 touchdowns while not turning the ball over, and posting a 95.1 QBR. The difference that day was a pass interference call and a second lost because Howard didn’t slide in time to set up a potential game-winning field goal. But Oregon was also without its best pass-rusher in the game. The Ducks gained almost 500 yards of offense and Ohio State rarely sniffed quarterback Dillon Gabriel. As a result, Gabriel picked apart the Buckeye secondary.

It would seem the gap between Iamaleava and Gabriel is quite large. Oregon’s receivers are also better than Tennessee’s to an almost absurd degree. Assuming the Ducks don’t lose their best tailback after 2 carries, Ohio State isn’t likely to shut this offense down the way it did Tennessee’s. The Buckeyes also fed off the energy in Ohio Stadium and now they have to go cross-country to play in a much less friendly environment. I do wonder how much energy it took to do what Ohio State did in the first round, and if this game highlights the advantage of grabbing 1 of those first-round byes.

Bet Oregon +2.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia — Quarterfinal, Jan. 1 (Sugar Bowl)

Georgia -1.5 | Total: 44 | Moneyline: Georgia -120, Notre Dame +100

With Carson Beck’s injury, Georgia might have been better served playing in the first round. Beck completed 7 of his 13 passes for 56 yards in the SEC Championship game against Texas, but he was knocked out of the game on the final play of the first half with an arm injury. Gunner Stockton replaced Beck in the second half and led Georgia to a 22-19 overtime victory.

Stockton completed 12 of his 16 passes for 71 yards and an interception, while also running 8 times for 8 yards. In the third quarter, when Georgia made its run to get back into the game, the offense averaged 5.5 yards per play (up from 2.6 in the first half) and Stockton completed 4 of his 6 passes. The Bulldogs turned to the ground and used Stockton’s ability as a runner to catch Texas off-guard. When Texas got reoriented for Stockton, the offense started to struggle again and Stockton was caught in a few bad spots.

The official statement from Georgia after the SEC title game was that Beck injured his elbow, was exploring treatment options, and had no timetable for a return. The expectation remains that Stockton will start against the Irish.

Advantage Notre Dame. The Irish will be preparing all the way for Stockton, which is something Texas wasn’t able to do. I think safety Xavier Watts has a monster day.

Notre Dame leads the nation in EPA per dropback faced and passing success rate allowed. Nothing comes easy against the secondary, which had to replace star corner Benjamin Morrison on the fly in mid-October and hasn’t really skipped a beat. The Irish thoroughly dominated Indiana until a handful of garbage-time possessions made both Kurtis Rourke’s stat line and the scoreboard look better than they actually were. This looked like the Ohio State game all over again for the Hoosiers, who averaged just 3.6 yards per play through the first 3 quarters and went into the fourth trailing 20-3.

The Irish ended the day averaging 6 yards per carry, adjusted for sacks, and got a 23-for-32 performance out of Riley Leonard through the air. Jeremiyah Love again flashed his ability on a 98-yard run. A receiver emerged. Notre Dame had a couple of so-so drives, but it also didn’t really have to do too much to pancake an overmatched IU team. Remove the 98-yard score and Notre Dame’s offensive performance could best be described as time-wasting.

How much did Notre Dame show? How healthy was Love? The Irish won’t have defensive lineman Rylie Mills, which is a concern. This becomes a monster moment for Howard Cross, who returned from a lengthy absence in the Indiana game but only made 1 tackle. Getting 11 days off between games should help.

With Indiana looking like it didn’t belong, it becomes fair to question if Notre Dame has faced anyone yet that even comes close to Georgia. Even with a Playoff game already under its belt, Notre Dame’s schedule ranks 40th nationally, per FPI. Georgia played the toughest schedule in the country according to the model, and only Oregon has a better strength of record than the Bulldogs. Notre Dame has wins over 5 teams that were ranked at the time of the game, including over Texas A&M. But it still hasn’t been tested the way Georgia has.

Georgia has been pedestrian against the run this season but it’ll still be the most physical unit Notre Dame has seen. This game has the potential to be a rock fight for the ages.

Bet under 44.5 points (-114 via FanDuel)

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Derek Peterson

Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.