Betting Stuff: What I got wrong in Week 5
Best Bets had a second consecutive perfect week. Not the same kind of success for our DFS picks. But that means once again we’re focusing on player-specific matchups. We’re starting to get a firmer grasp of which teams to ride, which to avoid (hello, Arkansas), and who’s doing what.
The records through the first 5 weeks:
Here’s what I missed in Week 5.
UCF RB RJ Harvey over 1.5 rushing touchdowns — MISS
I’ve driven a touchdown streak into the ground twice now this season. First, it was SMU’s Brashard Smith earlier in the season. Now it’s RJ Harvey. The UCF tailback entered Saturday’s contest with Colorado off 3 consecutive games with multiple rushing scores to begin the season. He had run 29 times against TCU in the Big 12 opener and, within an offense that was among the most run-heavy in the country, it seemed likely he’d find the endzone. He had multiple scores in 7 of his last 8 appearances for UCF.
But Colorado rose to the challenge defending the UCF run game. The Knights ran it 39 times if you factor out sacks. Falling behind by multiple scores early changed the calculus, but Colorado was also unyielding in the red zone. Six of UCF’s 7 drives to end the game crossed the Colorado 40.
Here’s how those possessions ended:
- Missed field goal from the Colorado 37
- 15-yard KJ Jefferson rushing touchdown
- RJ Harvey fumble at the Colorado 37
- KJ Jefferson sack on fourth-and-goal from the Colorado 4
- KJ Jefferson fumble at the Colorado 14
- 2-yard KJ Jefferson pass on fourth-and-14 from the Colorado 33
UCF entered Saturday’s game ranked fourth nationally in yards per rushing attempt. The Knights had the ball first-and-goal from the Colorado 2 at one point in the fourth quarter and they called 1 running play on the next 4 snaps. That run was not for RJ Harvey, who had 8 touchdowns in his first 3 games.
On one side, UCF is going to feel like this game got away from it. The Knights lost by 4 scores in a game that featured almost identical success rates on both sides (per game on paper).
On the Colorado side, what a confidence-builder. The Buffs are now 4-1 going back home to host a ranked Kansas State team.
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Arkansas QB Taylen Green over 67.5 rushing yards — MISS
Through his first 3 games against FBS competition, Green had averaged 17.7 rushing attempts for 79 yards a game. His legs were a significant piece of the puzzle for offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino.
Texas A&M’s 21-17 win over the Razorbacks saw the Aggies effectively remove Green’s runs from the equation. The Arkansas quarterback finished with 12 carries for 12 yards. Remove the sacks he took and the rushing success rate sits at 40%. Green converted a pair of third downs with his legs in the second and third quarters, but the Aggie defensive line shut down the rest of it.
Shemar Stewart and Nic Scourton were huge.
Stewart forced one of Green’s 3 turnovers by blowing up the mesh point on a second-quarter run. Scourton registered a strip-sack on Green that killed the game off in the final 2 minutes.
“I thought our defense played lights out all day,” Elko said after the game. “I thought we made a ton of plays, we pressured him (Green) all day. D-line was phenomenal, controlling the game, controlling the run game.”
That was the most impressed I’ve been walking away from an A&M game all season. Arkansas is extremely volatile right now — the Razorbacks again had a positive net success rate in a loss — but I thought the Aggie defensive line finally looked the part. Scourton entered with 3.5 TFLs in his first 4 games and walked out of AT&T Stadium with 4.
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