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Heisman Watch, Week 9: Ashton Jeanty and Cam Ward set for epic November duel
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The Heisman race has very clearly become a 4-horse race as we near the start of November. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, Miami’s Cam Ward, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel, and Colorado’s Travis Hunter are the only players on the board at FanDuel with odds shorter than +1600 to win the award.
I would argue Hunter is a distant fourth in this race. I’d also argue there’s more value on Jeanty now than there has been at any point in the last month or so.
Jeanty was the favorite for weeks as he ran over anyone and everyone in front of him. His record-setting rushing pace has dipped, but only by a little. Jeanty was “limited” to 128 rushing yards and just 1 score in Boise State’s win over UNLV last Friday. Jeanty’s score came on a fourth-and-goal in the fourth quarter and it gave Boise State the lead in what were the final points of the game.
There were (and still are) those skeptical of Jeanty’s legitimacy as a Heisman candidate. As the betting favorite, he was in a tough spot, tasked with practically going wire-to-wire. That was always going to be a challenge because of who votes on the award. We sportswriters are like goldfish — very short memories. The guys who make huge plays in November tend to stick out a little more.
Jeanty won’t take the field again until Nov. 1. He’ll play 5 times throughout the month. He sits 1,252 rushing yards away from tying Barry Sanders’ single-season NCAA record. He’s 19 touchdowns shy of Sanders’ single-season scores record.
Because Sanders set his records in 11 officially-scored games, Jeanty’s case will be picked at if he takes 13 or even 14 games to reach those same marks. To match Sanders in the regular-season, Jeanty would need to average 250 yards over his last 5 games.
Jeanty has shown that anything is possible. And he has received 64 carries in the last 2 outings, so maybe the workload will be there. But that’s asking an awful lot. If he comes out of the bye week rejuvenated and bowls over San Diego State, Jeanty will start to see a bit more action in the betting markets.
But Ward and Gabriel are nipping at his heels.
Oregon is ranked No. 1 in the AP poll for a second consecutive week. If the Ducks close out the regular season without a loss and wins the Big Ten, we’ll have an obvious choice for the Heisman at the position sportswriters love to lean toward. Gabriel is a touch behind Ward in most counting stats, but he’s on the best team.
Ward, meanwhile, is No. 2 on my board because of the strength of his profile. A few numbers:
- 91.0 QBR — Ward ranks third among qualified FBS quarterbacks
- 73.8 EPA — Ward leads all FBS quarterbacks
- 91.6 offensive grade from PFF — Ward leads all qualified FBS quarterbacks
- 20 big-time throws — Ward ranks fourth among all FBS quarterbacks
- 140 first-downs produced — Ward ranks second among all FBS quarterbacks
- 48 completions of at least 20 yards — Ward leads all FBS quarterbacks
- 1 of 5 FBS passers without an interception on throws of at least 20 air yards (min. 40 attempts)
Miami has games down the stretch against Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Syracuse. There isn’t a huge game left in the regular-season, meaning if he captures the public’s attention, it’ll be because Miami was in an unexpectedly close game. That could work against him, but Ward is also still piloting an unbeaten team. If Miami goes 12-0 and Ward keeps adding to his résumé, he’ll be hard to beat.
Below is the updated Heisman Trophy race entering Week 10. (Due to scheduling, last week was a wash, but the previous Heisman Watch can be found here.)
Editor’s note: The rank you see next to each player reflects how a vote for the Heisman would look right now
1. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State RB (LW: 1)
Week 9 results: 29-24 win at UNLV
Week 9 stats: 33 carries, 128 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 3 receptions, 11 receiving yards
Season stats: 159 carries, 1,376 rushing yards, 8.7 yards per attempt, 18 rushing touchdowns, 12 receptions, 50 receiving yards. 1 receiving touchdown
One big number: nation-leading 1,020 yards after contact
Current odds: +440 (via FanDuel)
Up next: vs. San Diego State
2. Cam Ward, Miami QB (LW: 2)
Week 9 results: 36-14 win over Florida State
Week 9 stats: 22-for-35, 208 passing yards, 1 reception, 7 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown
Season stats: 68.0% completion, 2,746 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 186 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns, 1 receiving touchdown
One big number: nation-leading 73.8 EPA
Current odds: +300 (via FanDuel)
Up next: vs. Duke
3. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon QB (LW: 3)
Week 9 results: 38-9 win over No. 20 Illinois
Week 9 stats: 18-for-26, 291 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 3 carries, 5 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
Season stats: 76.2% completion, 2,371 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 97 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns
One big number: 94.0 passer grade on throws of at least 20 air yards
Current odds: +230 (via FanDuel)
Up next: at Michigan
4. Travis Hunter, Colorado WR/DB (LW: 9)
Week 9 results: 34-23 win over Cincinnati
Week 9 stats: 9 receptions, 153 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns, 2 tackles, 4 pass breakups
Season stats: 60 receptions, 757 receiving yards, 8 receiving touchdowns, 20 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 7 pass breakups, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble
One big number: second-best receiving grade among Big 12 players, second-best coverage grade among Big 12 players
Current odds: +270 (via FanDuel)
Up next: BYE
5. Cade Klubnik, Clemson QB (LW: 4)
Week 9 results: N/A
Week 9 stats: N/A
Season stats: 66.7% completion, 1,836 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 227 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns
One big number: lowest turnover-worthy play rate of career (2.0%) with highest average depth of target of career (9.7 yards)
Current odds: +1600 (via FanDuel)
Up next: vs. Louisville
6. Jalen Milroe, Alabama QB (LW: 5)
Week 9 results: 34-0 win over No. 21 Missouri
Week 9 stats: 16-for-26, 215 passing yards, 11 carries, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
Season stats: 67.5% completion, 1,937 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 380 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns
One big number: 11 sacks in last 4 games
Current odds: +6000 (via FanDuel)
Up next: BYE
7. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana QB (LW: 6)
Week 9 results: 31-17 win over Washington
Week 9 stats: N/A (DNP)
Season stats: 74.6% completion, 1,941 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 45 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
One big number: nation-leading 91.6 Total QBR
Current odds: +7000 (via FanDuel)
Up next: at Michigan State
8. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss QB (LW: 10)
Week 9 results: 26-14 win over Oklahoma
Week 9 stats: 22-for-30, 311 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 8 carries, 24 rushing yards
Season stats: 70.6% completion, 2,695 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 207 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns
One big number: 25 pass plays of at least 30 yards, the most among FBS quarterbacks
Current odds: +10000 (via FanDuel)
Up next: at Arkansas
9. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU QB (LW: 8)
Week 9 results: 38-23 loss at No. 14 Texas A&M
Week 9 stats: 25-for-50, 405 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 4 carries, -3 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
Season stats: 62.5% completion, 2,627 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 13 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns
One big number: 3 second-half interceptions in loss at Texas A&M
Current odds: +7000 (via FanDuel)
Up next: BYE
10. Dylan Sampson, Tennessee RB (LW: NR)
Week 9 results: N/A
Week 9 stats: N/A
Season stats: 144 carries, 838 rushing yards, 5.8 yards per carry, 17 rushing touchdowns, 10 receptions, 88 receiving yards
One big number: multiple rushing touchdowns in 6 of 7 appearances this season
Current odds: +15000 (via FanDuel)
Up next: vs. Florida
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
