Ad Disclosure
In the Rose Bowl, we get a Big Ten-on-Big Ten (or Pac-12-on-Big Ten, depending on your viewpoint) rematch. These 2 teams met in the regular season, back on Oct. 12 when Oregon (13-0) handed Ohio State (11-2) its first loss of the season. The Ducks won in Eugene 32-31 but controversy muddied the result.
A late pass interference penalty on Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith moved the Buckeyes from the Oregon 28 back to the 43 with 22 seconds remaining, pushing them out of field goal range in a 1-point game. Dan Lanning then famously deployed a 12th man to kill time on a dead play with less than 10 seconds to go. And on the final play of the game, quarterback Will Howard scrambled for 12 yards but time expired before he could get down. Of course, Oregon also felt Ohio State’s opening touchdown drive of the game should never have resulted in points after Jeffrey Bassa picked off a pass that was ruled an Ohio State completion and was never stopped by the replay crew to review the play.
Though the margin was slim, Oregon held all the markers that typically indicate an edge. The Ducks outgained Ohio State both in the game and on a per-play basis. Oregon was better on third down. Oregon won the turnover battle. Oregon had more plays in the opposing backfield. Oregon had fewer penalties.
Ohio State has said since that loss that it hoped to see Oregon again. For weeks, the Buckeyes were talking about a rematch in the Big Ten Championship Game. Instead, they meet in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
Kickoff from the Rose Bowl is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Oregon vs. Ohio State betting odds
Spread: Ohio State -2.5
Total: 55.5 points
Moneyline: Ohio State -137, Oregon +114
via FanDuel
Ohio State stats, strengths, weaknesses
The Buckeyes are one of the most complete teams in college football. In the preseason, this $20 million roster was viewed as a title favorite, and to a large degree, only Ohio State has prevented Ohio State from looking like it throughout the regular season.
A game manager runs the show at quarterback and sets the table for a deep and uber-talented crop of skill players to eat. On the other side of the football, Ohio State swarms and overwhelms teams.
Quinshon Judkins has 839 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns this season on 157 carries. TreVeyon Henderson has 831 yards and 8 touchdowns on 118 carries. In what is arguably the best backfield in college football, neither player has had to carry a significant workload and that has allowed both to reach the postseason fresh. In the first-round game against Tennessee, Henderson averaged 8 yards per carry and found the endzone twice. Judkins has been quiet since a 95-yard effort against Penn State on Nov. 2, but he’s also had more than 14 carries in a game only once all year.
Freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith has brought in 63 receptions for 1,037 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. And he’s flanked by 2 other receivers who would be first-choice guys on just about any other team. Emeka Egbuka has 65 receptions for 824 yards and 9 scores on the year. Carnell Tate has 42 catches for 601 yards and 4 scores.
Per Game on Paper, Ohio State is second nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. But quarterback Will Howard has thrown 9 interceptions and, at times, left a little to be desired. Before lighting the Volunteers up with an aggressive, shot-hunting aerial assault in the first round of the CFP, Howard was last seen throwing 2 interceptions and completing less than 60% of his passes in a 13-10 loss to Michigan.
The offensive line has fluctuated this season. Season-ending injuries to tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin have forced the Buckeyes to adjust on the fly. They’ve gone through 5 different starting lineups this season and the results have been a mixed bag.
Arguably, the defense is what has carried the day for Ohio State this season. The Buckeyes are third nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play allowed and they lead the nation in success rate. Linebacker Cody Simon leads the team in tackles with 86 while outstanding safety Caleb Downs patrols the backend. JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have combined for 14 sacks and 88 quarterback pressures. Oregon is the only team all season to score more than 17 points against this Ohio State defense.
And yet, the Buckeyes also leave fans wanting more at times on this side of the ball as well. Ohio State has just 17 takeaways in 13 games (65th nationally) and the quarterback pressures have dried up against the better teams. Against Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan, Ohio State recorded 2 sacks. In its other 10 games, the Buckeyes averaged 3.7 per contest. And the corners have been burned repeatedly by strong receiver rooms. Oregon targeted Denzel Burke 7 times in the first matchup, and it got 7 completions for 162 yards. Davison Igbinosun on the other side has been flagged 13 times this year. The corners are grabby and, in a system that puts them 1-on-1 often, beatable.
Oregon stats, strengths, weaknesses
Led by a Heisman Trophy finalist at quarterback and a 1,000-yard rusher in the backfield, Oregon has hummed on offense for most of the year. There was an early malaise when the Ducks were trying to nail down the right offensive line configuration, but really since the Oregon State game, the Ducks have been a buzzsaw. They scored 30 points or more in 9 of the 10 games they played against Big Ten competition. The only exception was a night game in Madison that was Oregon’s eighth game in as many weeks.
In the first meeting with the Buckeyes, quarterback Dillon Gabriel threw for 341 yards and 2 touchdowns. He linked up often with Evan Stewart, who had 1 of his best games of the season with 149 yards on 7 receptions. Oregon is an equal-opportunity passing attack, though. Six different players have at least 20 receptions. Tez Johnson, Stewart, and Traeshon Holden all have at least 300 receiving yards. Tight end Terrance Ferguson has 520 yards and multiple catches in all but 1 appearance this season. Gabriel — second in QBR and third in EPA — has spread the ball around to great effect. His completion percentage this season is on pace to be a career-high and, barring a disastrous day, he’ll set a new career high for passing at some point in the quarterfinal matchup with Ohio State.
The Ducks are fourth nationally in adjusted EPA per play, and they are fifth in success rate. If there’s a critique of the offense, its that Oregon doesn’t generate enough explosives. Gabriel’s average depth of 6.9 yards per target is one of the shortest of any qualified passer in the FBS. But he also has one of the lowest turnover-worthy play rates in the country.
On the other side, the Ducks pair an outstanding secondary with a bad run defense.
Oregon shuts down opposing pass games and flocks to the football. The Duck defense ranks 15th nationally in passing success rate allowed. They have the seventh-most passes defended of any FBS team. Cornerback Jabbar Muhammad — who started for Washington last season during its run to the national championship — has 11 pass breakups this season. Corner Nikko Reed has 7. Defensive end Jordan Burch has 6. (A hallmark of the Ducks’ defensive line is that they have remarkably active hands when the ball is being thrown.)
Ohio State will undoubtedly look to test the ground game. Oregon ranks 98th in rushing success rate allowed — the worst of any remaining Playoff team. The Ducks give up 4 yards per carry and are coming off a game in which Penn State ran for 292 yards. Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson averaged 8.7 per carry against Oregon the first time. Ashton Jeanty ran for 192 and 3 scores against Oregon. Purdue’s Reggie Love III ran for 93 yards on 11 carries against Oregon. Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton both cleared 100 yards on the ground in the Big Ten title game.
How to bet the spread in Oregon-Ohio State
Ohio State is 7-6 against the spread this season. It closed as a 3.5-point favorite in the first meeting with Oregon. Under Ryan Day, the Buckeyes are 2-3 ATS in games where they are a favorite of fewer than 7 points.
Oregon is also 7-6 ATS. This will mark just the second game all season in which the Ducks will be an underdog. Under Dan Lanning, Oregon is 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
Ohio State bettors can get -110 odds on the Buckeyes -2.5 at FanDuel. Oregon is sitting at +2.5 across the board, with multiple shops having the same price.
How to bet the total in Oregon-Ohio State
The point total has gone under the projection in 7 of the last 10 games for Ohio State and in 6 of the last 10 for Oregon. Unders are 7-6 for both of these teams across the season. However, the first meeting had a point total hovering right around the same spot and that number cleared. BetMGM has the best odds on the under, with the total set at 56.5. FanDuel has -106 odds on the game going over 55.5 points.
Prop picks in Oregon-Ohio State
Gabriel threw for 341 yards in the first meeting and there’s no reason he shouldn’t find success once again. Ohio State’s edge rushers have been temperamental in big games and they just couldn’t sniff Gabriel in the first meeting. While the Buckeyes have changed up their pressure looks since that game, I still the Ducks have success moving the ball through the air against this defense. The corners are still liabilities and if Ohio State is going to try and heat up Gabriel, that just puts more responsibility on the outside guys to stick with their men. Gabriel has cleared 250 passing yards in 9 of his 13 appearances this year. FanDuel has -114 odds on him going over 248.5 yards.
Henderson has been the more productive back for Ohio State down the stretch of the season. He has at least 50 yards in 5 of his last 6 outings, with the only dud coming in the Michigan game when every single Buckeye was poor. Against a really suspect run defense, both Henderson and Judkins might eat. Getting -114 odds on more than 53.5 rushing yards (FanDuel) feels generous.
Prediction for Oregon-Ohio State
I’m backing Oregon +2.5 at DraftKings. The first meeting was a “last one with the ball wins” kind of game, yes, but Oregon also did some things in that game that I think are repeatable. The Buckeyes still aren’t trustworthy, despite a mauling of Tennessee in the first round of the CFP. And Oregon has been the most consistent team all year. Dillon Gabriel is a far better quarterback at this point than Nico Iamaleava, and it’s worth pointing out that Tennessee’s offense was without its star running back, its No. 1 receiver, and its No. 3 receiver against the Buckeyes. A healthy, motivated Oregon team is a dangerous one. It’ll be another back-and-forth game. Oregon has the more reliable quarterback and the more reliable team.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
