Skip to content

Ad Disclosure

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer.

College Football

Which non-Playoff teams have the best shot at getting into the 2025 field?

Brett Friedlander

By Brett Friedlander

Published:


The 3 saddest words in college basketball have now carried over to football.

First 4 out.

It’s a phrase that makes a long offseason even longer as the teams it describes agonize over what they could have done differently – or who to blame – after being denied an opportunity to play for a national championship.

Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina are the first to feel the sting of falling just short in the expanded 12-team Football Playoff.

Their near-misses will motivate them to avoid a similar fate in 2025. But while they’ll be among the favorites to fill those precious few spots in the bracket, they’ll have plenty of competition in pursuing that goal.

Here’s a look at the team from each of the power conferences and Group of 5 with the best chance of making the 2025 Playoff after missing out this season:

ACC: Miami

First things first. Let’s not get carried away with the Bill Belichick effect at North Carolina. The guy was a great NFL coach, maybe the best ever. But this is his first foray into the college game. And he turns 73 in April. 

Beyond that, have you seen the roster with which he’ll be working?

It will be a curiosity, for sure. But when it comes to substance, the Hurricanes are the team other than Clemson best equipped to make a Playoff run.

They have their own coaching questions to answer, of course. Mario Cristobal has a knack for coming up small at just the wrong time, as he and his team did after taking a 21-0 lead at Syracuse in the final week of the regular season. That puzzling loss ultimately kept Miami out of the 2024 Playoff.

While Cristobal has reloaded his offense by replacing record-setting quarterback Cam Ward with another Heisman-quality passer in Georgia’s Carson Beck, his most important additions have been to a defense most responsible for the Hurricanes’ disappointing finish in 2024.

Corey Hetherman, who led a Minnesota defense that ranked among the top 10 in the FBS in scoring (16.9 ppg), yards per game (285) and passing efficiency (111.15) while allowing only 36 plays of 20 yards or more, has replaced Lance Guidry as coordinator. He’s also bulked up a secondary by bringing in 4 transfer cornerbacks, including Xavier Lucas – whose departure from Wisconsin after signing a “binding agreement” to play for the Badgers made national headlines.

Big 12: Iowa State

The Cyclones were within a game of earning a spot in this season’s Playoff but were soundly beaten for the conference championship by Arizona State. Still, they gave a glimpse of how good they were – and can be – by outlasting Miami in an entertaining Pop-Tarts Bowl shootout. 

Unlike the Hurricanes, Iowa State didn’t enhance its 2025 Playoff chances because of who it added. But rather, who it retained.

Matt Campbell is the biggest fish to decide to stay in the small pond of Ames. One of the nation’s best, most underrated coaches, Campbell’s name was mentioned for several prominent college jobs as well as the Chicago Bears’ opening. But after leading Iowa State to its first 10-win season and its 7th bowl appearance in the past 8 years, he committed to stay by extending his contract through 2032.

So did his quarterback Rocco Becht. 

The dual-threat junior threw for 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns last season while rushing for 318 and 8 more scores. He resisted the urge to enter the transfer portal, where reported offers from SEC and ACC schools awaited, to finish what he started, emerge from the crowd in a balanced Big 12 and get the Cyclones into the Playoff for the first time.

Big Ten: Michigan

Last season was a transition. And the growing pains showed. But rookie coach Sherrone Moore grew in the job as 2024 went along. And after finishing with 3 straight wins, including upsets of eventual national champion Ohio State in the regular-season finale and Alabama in the ReliaQuest Bowl, he and his team head into 2025 with momentum.

A return to championship form will require major improvement on offense, with high hopes being pinned on the arrival of 5-star quarterback Bryce Underwood, the nation’s top-rated recruit in the 2025 class. Underwood will have the advantage of working with new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey, who mentored Drake Maye when he was at North Carolina. But that’s still a big ask for an incoming freshman, which is why Moore signed transfer Mikey Keene from Fresno State as insurance.

Regardless of who plays quarterback, Michigan’s defense promises to be elite. Although it will lose several starters to the NFL Draft, everyone who was on the field while limiting Jalen Milroe and Alabama to 260 yards and 13 points while forcing 3 turnovers projects to be back. That includes the trio of Rayshaun Benny, Derrick Moore and TJ Guy up front, and safety Rod Moore.

Returning to the top of a conference that sent 4 teams to the Playoff in 2024 won’t be easy. But with Indiana expected to take a step back and a schedule that replaces Texas with the much less formidable Oklahoma and avoids Oregon and Penn State, it’s not a stretch to suggest the Wolverines could be undefeated heading into their end-of-the-schedule showdown with the Buckeyes.

Group of 5: UNLV

Boise State continues to be the gold standard of the G5 and will once again be in contention for the automatic bid awarded to the highest-rated team among the group. But with Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty leaving for the NFL Draft, the door will be open for someone else to slip through.

UNLV nearly accomplished that goal in 2024 by finishing in the national rankings for the first time — with 2 of its 3 losses coming to Boise, including a 21-7 setback in the Mountain West Championship Game.

Although the Rebels lost coach Barry Odom to Purdue, they found a capable replacement in Dan Mullen, who was 34-15 with an SEC East championship in his 4 seasons at Florida. He’s already recruited an impressive quarterback room with transfers Anthony Colandrea from Virginia and Alex Orji from Michigan to join returning 1,400-yard rusher Jai’Den Thomas.

SEC: Alabama

Yes, South Carolina is going to be a chic pick with the return of LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart, Lane Kiffin will keep Ole Miss competitive while LSU and Florida are lurking. But c’mon, do you really think Alabama is going to go 2 years in a row without making the Playoff?

The pressure is already on Kalen DeBoer after the Crimson Tide suffered more losses on his watch this season than in any season since going 7-6 in Nick Saban’s debut in 2007. If DeBoer needs any inspiration he can find it from Saban, who turned things around quickly by going 12-1 (8-0 SEC) in Year 2.

Defensively, Bama should be set with the return of LT Overton and Tim Keenan up front, along with Deontae Lawson, Domani Jackson, Justin Jefferson and Keon Sabb on the back line. The questions are all on offense. 

Outstanding freshman receiver Ryan Williams is a good place to start. And he’ll be helped by the addition of Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, a playmaker opposing defenses can’t ignore. But everything else is a mystery. Not only was Jalen Milroe the team’s leading passer last season, he was also the top rusher. Unless DeBoer brings in a veteran transfer, the Crimson Tide will ride with former 5-star recruit and 3-year backup Ty Simpson or 5-star freshman Keelon Russell.

The schedule is brutal, with road games at Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina, in addition to home dates with Tennessee and LSU. But even if Bama stumbles a time or 2, that degree of difficulty will keep Bama in the mix up to Selection Sunday, just as it did in 2024.

Brett Friedlander

Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.

You might also like...

2024 RANKINGS

presented by rankings

Read our Privacy Policy, Terms and Conditions, Cookie Policy and

© 2025 Saturday Down South. All rights reserved

We do not target any individuals under the age of 21. We support responsible gambling. If you feel like you're losing control over your gambling experience, call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA, WV), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-888- 532-3500(Virginia) 1-800-522-4700 (NV, TN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO, TN), 1-855-2CALLGA (IL), 1-800-270-7117 (MI). global.footer.legal