Florida at LSU: 3 matchups that will define Top 10 showdown
Tiger Stadium at night.
College GameDay in town.
No. 5 LSU and No. 7 Florida — 2 of the 5 programs in the country with multiple national championships this century.
In terms of pageantry and product on the field, it really doesn’t get much better than that in this sport.
Florida and LSU played rarely until the 1970s, but have met annually since and have played as each other’s designated cross-divisional opponent since the SEC went to divisions in 1992. The series has produced some compelling games but has blossomed into a rivalry over the past decade and a half, with both teams frequently in the national spotlight. Since 2014, every game between them has been decided by a touchdown or fewer, with Florida’s 8-point victory in The Swamp last season the largest margin of victory in that span.
Close games, coupled with a fair share of strange off-field drama has helped stoke the embers of discord in what for a long while was a relatively friendly rivalry. (Anyone want Tim Tebow’s cell phone number? Anyone want to re-litigate whether former LSU AD and general jackwagon Joe Alleva stole a home game over a hurricane again? Or whether the schools should stop scheduling each other for Homecoming? I know I don’t.)
Saturday’s game has all the makings of another special contest, even if Vegas overwhelmingly favors LSU (first game where a team was favored by double digits since LSU routed Florida 41-11 in 2011).
Here are 3 matchups that will define the football game.
LSU’s reshuffled offensive line against Florida’s dominant front
The Gators front 7 has been ferocious this season and in SEC play, they’ve done it without All-SEC defensive end Jabari Zuniga.
Florida is No. 3 nationally in sacks, 8th in tackles for loss and 10th in havoc rate (percentage of plays resulting in sack, tackle for loss, pass defended or broken up). Auburn felt pretty great about its offense after it poured out 56 points and 578 yards on Mississippi State the week before it arrived in Gainesville. Florida absolutely suffocated the Tigers, limiting them to fewer than 300 yards, forcing 3 Bo Nix interceptions and holding the Tigers to just 2-of-14 on 3rd down. Zuniga is expected back for the LSU game, which would give Florida a completely healthy (and eligible to play) defense for the first time in 2019 — a scary proposition for opposing offenses.
The Gators will be by far the best defense LSU has played. How soft have the defenses LSU has played been?
How about this fact — LSU has yet to play a defense that ranks above 68th nationally in total defense (Georgia Southern). If you use the smarter, more informed metric (yards allowed per play) — LSU has yet to play a defense that ranks higher than 52nd (Utah State). And Joe Burrow’s signature game so far? That came against a Texas team that has battled injuries defensively but, given how good Florida has done despite injuries — appears to be just bad at getting stops (104th in total defense and 85th in yards allowed per play).
Florida enters Baton Rouge ranked 10th in total defense, 18th in yards allowed per play, 8th in pass efficiency defense, 16th in rushing defense and No. 1 in interceptions. Per Stats Solutions, Florida also ranks 5th in stop rate (percentage of defensive possessions where they force a turnover, turnover on downs or punt).
The Gators’ defense, suffice to say, will be a huge test for LSU.
LSU’s offense, of course, will be the best unit the Gators have faced by miles. The Tigers have electric talent on the perimeter, a bell-cow running back in Clyde Edwards-Helaire and a bona fide Heisman candidate at quarterback in Joe Burrow. It will be a stout test for Florida, especially without the juice of The Swamp to urge them forward.
So how do you break down strength on strength?
Usually, in big boy football, it starts and ends up front.
LSU’s offensive line returned 4 starters to begin the year but has been shuffled a bit of late, with Ed Ingram returning to the starting lineup after being cleared of a sexual assault accusation and Adrian McGee, who usually plays guard, moved to tackle for former All-SEC All-Freshman team selection Saahdiq Charles, who has been in Ed Orgeron’s doghouse.
The Tigers have actually pass protected decently in 2019, limiting opponents to just 9 sacks in 5 games. That’s still a bit more leaky than Orgeron and offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger would like, but it’s a vast improvement from a unit that gave up more sacks than any offensive line in the SEC a season ago. Some of that is schematic, with new passing game coordinator Joe Brady designing plays to utilize LSU’s elite athleticism in space and get the ball out quickly, rather than have Burrow sit in the pocket. But Florida’s talented secondary, led by All-American CJ Henderson and former All-SEC freshman team corner Marco Wilson will make life a bit more difficult on the Tigers from that vantage point.
The other issue for LSU will be balance. The Tigers’ run blocking has also improved, ranking in the top 40 nationally in success rate (how often a run play goes for a successful number of yards given down and distance) a year after finishing near 100th in that category. But the Tigers have faced only 1 rushing defense in the top 50 (Utah State) — and grinding out 5 yards per carry against a Group of 5 defensive front is hardly like playing Florida’s front 7.
If LSU gives Burrow time, he’s going to make plays. Heck, he’s going to make plenty of plays even when he doesn’t have time. But LSU has to win its fair share of battles up front to make sure Laissez les bons temps rouler on the Bayou Saturday night.
LSU’s version of DBU vs. Florida’s elite wide receivers
The Gators have loads of blue-chip talent in the passing game, led by the senior quartet of Van Jefferson, Tyrie Cleveland, Freddie Swain and Joshua Hammond.
It seems like a different one steps up from week to week. Against Miami’s talented secondary, it was Hammond. Against Kentucky, Jefferson led the way. Against Auburn, Swain collected 6 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown. The Gators have elite route runners (Jefferson, Swain), vertical threats (Cleveland and NFL prototype 6-4, 215-pound junior Trevon Grimes), and guys with golden hands (Hammond). And all that is before you meet Kyle Pitts, a 6-6, 245-pound wrecking ball of a tight end who with 4.6 speed is entirely too fast for most teams to cover with linebackers and much too big to cover with a nickel or corner (see below).
The good news for LSU?
They have Grant Delpit, the nation’s most versatile DB, who is a tight-end eraser with his size and speed. His battles with Pitts on Saturday night are the stuff NFL scouts dream about. Delpit’s ability to disrupt quarterback timing with his speed in coverage but still lower the boom in run support is a big reason LSU is less susceptible to other team’s mismatch problems. Delpit is good enough to not just provide help — but handle the mismatch himself.
Grant. Delpit.💪
Just an ABSURD INT!🔥https://t.co/jAEbUkuPUD
— PointsBet Sportsbook (@PointsBetUSA) October 5, 2019
Delpit was monitored via concussion protocol this weekend but should play Saturday night.
Joining him to handle the rest of the Gators WR core is freshman sensation Derek Stingley, who leads the SEC in passes defended and opponent completion rate against (a paltry 42% per Stats Solutions). He’s an electric football player and already might be LSU’s second-best defensive back. Much maligned corner Kary Vincent Jr. is also coming off his best game — a big reason a pass defense that was uncharacteristically leaky is back in the top 50 nationally in pass efficiency defense.
The X-factor, of course, is Florida’s offensive line against LSU’s front — but the Tigers usually rely on pressure to get to the quarterback, which means LSU’s backend has to hold up its end of the bargain against the most talented group of wide receivers it will face all season, save the Alabama game.
Florida’s version of DBU vs. LSU’s elite wide receivers
There’s a whole lot of strength on strength in this Florida-LSU matchup and that’s what will intrigue football junkies, scouts and fans alike.
LSU’s receivers are pure difference makers — with 3 guys who already have 20 or more receptions on the young season in Justin Jefferson, the marvelous Ja’Marr Chase and Terrace Marshall. Marshall is coming off an injury but returned to practice for LSU Monday, giving the Tigers their full complement of weapons ahead of the Florida showdown.
Of the 3, Chase, a former Florida commit, is the most difficult to defend. He’s fast enough to beat you handily over the top, he runs precise routes, and he’s physical and strong.
#LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase makes the early season #SEC Top Plays… pic.twitter.com/KVYq3L6D1S
— Josh Lemoine (@LsuFBallTruth) September 29, 2019
That’s precisely the type of guy Florida’s secondary has struggled with at times this season — and his production is worth monitoring.
Of course, Florida just played its first SEC game of the Mullen era with Henderson and Wilson on the field together. The returns — 3 interceptions and only 11 completions against — were decent. Joe Burrow is tremendous — but so are Florida’s defensive backs.
Burrow knows this — as does anyone who watched Florida-LSU a season ago.
The team that wins the Battle of the self-proclaimed DBU’s might win the football game Saturday — and remain undefeated.
This is like the Skill Position Super Bowl. Not downing Kyle, but I was looking forward to Franks and the passing game against LSU’s secondary. Can still enjoy both battles.
Love night time in Death Valley. We’re on of the few that has a realistic shot at a W.
Will tolerate no DBU disrespect this week. Stay in your corner, I’ll stay in mine.
Bring of Delpit, Fulton and Stingley!
This is what we play for!
Both teams can make a case for having the best secondary in the country. There’s just so many great players on both defenses. It’s going to be a great game. I think the stats on both teams can go right out the window because both teams play up when they meet. It’s awesome watching games like this because there’s going to be alot of players from both teams playing on Sundays in the future.
Also, Franks’ mobility would have added another much needed factor to your offense. Not having that allows our linebackers to drop back a little to cover the 10 yard crossing routes which is where I believe alot of yards will come from for both teams. Neither team is going to have alot of success with one on one matchups running post routes.
LSU is DBU. That’s what I say. But that is not what everyone says. Both teams have reasons to believe they are DBU, and both teams fans will claim they are DBU. Texas claimed they were DBU and Joe Burrow put up 471 yards and 4 touchdowns. Miami claimed they were DBU and florida put up nearly 300 points and 2 touchdowns. both teams have an argument. It will be a good game, good luck!!
It is hard for me to believe that LSU is DBU when Jefferson made Delpit and White look absolutely ridiculous last year.
Last week we saw paper tigers. This week it’s paper gators.
LSU will be wanting revenge for last year’s defeat at The Swamp. Couple that with a talented team, a psychotic fan base, and a night game in Death Valley and I can see why LSU is a -13 point favorite.
But……..that’s why they play the game. Who knows how this game will unfold. I’m looking for a shootout myself. Definitely the game of the week.
There will be a lot of interesting matchups in this one. UF has the better DLine while LSU has the better OLine. UF should win more than their share of battles there. I believe the LSU DLine could do that to the UF OLine also, but neither of these units are up to the level of the others. The UF DB’s will certainly be the best LSU has played, but they haven’t played a WR unit anywhere close to what LSU has. Burrow is way better than Trask, but he will face the tougher defense. Trask’s poise will definitely be tested. He hasn’t seen anything like the Tiger defense or the Tiger Stadium crowd. Ball security will be crucial for both teams. LSU has done a better job of protecting the ball, even though we have made some terrible mistakes. Can’t do that this week. Lots of pressure on all the playcallers. This could be epic.
Trask is pretty cool, calm, and collective. I don’t think he’ll be phased much by the crowd. Nothing seems to really phase him much. The offensive line though is a different story. I worry about them having several false starts that could kill drives.
If the O-line penalty bug hits (and with the crowd noise, chances are good), we will face way too many long down-and-distance situations. That’ll up the pressure on Trask and the vertical passing game. His ability to read defenses pre-snap and know his best option will need to be even better than usual.
You say that, but he has never been to Death Valley at night. let me just lay out some facts. There will be atleast 95,000 drunk cajuns yelling there heads off when Trask is trying to communicate with his star WR’s and not too good O line. Bear Bryant, the old Alabama Coach, said it’s like being inside a drum. Death Valley reaches a sound of 130 DB, good luck leaving without your ears ringing. They don’t call it death valley for no reason. please think about what you say about a quarterback that just took the starter position 3 games ago.
I know there’s nothing like Death Valley at night, but when a QB who hasn’t started or played significant minutes since his freshman year of high school is forced into a game down 21-10 in the 4th quarter in what was a pretty hostile environment, and proceeds to score 19 unanswered points, it’s pretty easy to say he’s not phased by much. Again, it’s the o-line that will be affected not the QB.
We all know how college football works. Ask Bo Nix
Remember what Jake Fromm said last year before he rolled into death valley? He would be able to drown out the noise and play like it was a regular game. He wasn’t intimidated by the “rumors” at all. 3 hours later…the worst game of his UGA career. End result? 36-16 Tigers. Don’t think that playing in Death Valley on a Saturday night won’t make a difference. That place is crazy! Dont believe me… go to a SEC game in that place on a Saturday night and tell me otherwise. Geaux Tigers!
The more I read into this game the more I think these 2 teams are even on paper. The difference maker in this game is Death Valley. I think everything will have to go right for UF in this one to have a chance.
Crowd noise is more of a problem for the offensive line, not the quarterback. I’m sure we’ll have a few procedure penalties.
Trask has been in Mullen’s system for two years. He came off the bench to lead a second half comeback in a sold-out away stadium; he felt his knee pop but came back to finish the game; and he just got the crap knocked out of him repeatedly by maybe the best college defensive lineman in America, but he kept doing his job. I think he’ll be fine.
I think Burrow will have to deal with more rush pressure than Trask.
Still don’t understand the betting line. Think LSU should be favored by 2.5 for home field advantage, but the Gators can definitely win it.
I wouldn’t count on Trask’s experience with crowd noise. Kentucky may have been sold out but it wasn’t very noisy. I was shocked by how quiet it actually was (My first trip to Kroger field) Even if the Wildcat fans were going nuts it wouldn’t compare to LSU level noise. I have been to Death Valley and while I can complain about some of the hospitality the crowd noise was beyond impressive. One of the few stadiums I have absolute respect for…
True. Kentucky only seats 65,000. And the Kentucky crowd probably developed a strong case of “Oh no, not again.”
But even so, crowd noise shouldn’t affect Trask’s play. The biggest problem with crowd noise is O-line communication.
Bo Nix’ problem wasn’t crowd noise. It was pass rush pressure and inexperience throwing into zone coverage. Keep in mind that Trask has practiced for four years against some of the best DBs in the country. He’s not Bo Nix.
I was trying to think exactly what teams strength and weakness are when opposite of each other, and that’s only a few things. FL’s offensive line (weakness) and the LSU crowd (strength) will be huge. 4 of FL’s O’linemen have not played at LSU and will be on edge. Not to mention they are freshmen players.
I think Trask will handle the crowd noise without major problems. What I want to see is if he can be coached up on better ball security in the pocket. What makes him great, also makes him vulnerable to fumbles. He looks downfield when lots of QBs are hearing footsteps.
Our defensive front just isn’t as dominant as Auburn’s so I dont foresee nearly as many fumbles as that game from Trask. Implementing blitz packages from the linebackers may not be the smartest idea because we need all the help we can get covering your WR’s
Given our O-line struggles, upping the blitz rate could be the ticket to MORE Trask fumbles, but like you said, there’s risk there.
I suspect Trask will be working on blitz recognition all week.
LSU LBs will need to worry about the TEs.
Pitts has WR skill and speed and Mullen loves to use him.
^^This.
LSU most likely won’t put a LB on Pitts. As the article says, Delpit will probably have the task of locking down Pitts.
It will be all about match ups and how many mismatches Mullen can create as far as offense go’s. The story of the game will be can we slow down Burroughs reads and pressure him a little.
It’s refreshing to see two fan bases make valid points and not just throw shade! I think this will be a great game. As a lifelong Gator fan, I hope our offense can show up and protect the ball. LSU’s offense is absolutely dynamic…and will test our defense for sure. Can’t wait for Saturday night!!
Agreed. LSU has some great fans on this site.
Thank you, but I live and breathe LSU Football, but at the end of the day, we are all humans living on the same earth. We should all be respectful and treat eachother with kindness, even if we might not like the opponent team. sometimes i have to remind myself that when i see a dirty hit or a bad play lol. good luck!!
Cool man. Enjoy the game.
I’m fortunate (and old enough..lol) to have been to games at every sec school except MZ. The night games at LSU and Auburn have as great a noise level and atmosphere as any place in the country. The best thing that can happen for an opposing team is to get an early lead and take the crowd down a few notches. After that it’s about playing good, disciplined football. BTW…LSU has the best tailgating food of anywhere!!
Great comment and words to live by.
I’ve never been to LSU, but one of my friends went in 2015 and said that the tailgating scene was unbelievable. He met some really nice LSU fans who were sharing their cajun food with him and said he had a blast.
I been to BR on many an occasion and have always had good experiences.
I wi
It was starting to get chippy in the 90s and I remember the administrations for both schools sending out a letter to their respective fan bases to please be respectful of each other. That year we were playing in BR and we were offered food by just about every tailgate we walked by.
I graduated boot camp in Orlando in December of ’89, and was fortunate enough to go see the Gators play UK in the Swamp. Great atmosphere! I had on my LSU hoodie and was treated like a king by almost every Gator fan I met. I was given so much (really, REALLY) good food by so many different tailgaters! So nice, and went way out of their way to make sure I had everything I needed, and so much more. I was GIVEN a Gators jersey, along with other souvenirs.
For someone who was just there to get the game day experience of being in the Swamp, it went above and beyond what I could have ever dreamed of. They turned an average SEC game (of there is such a thing) into an experience I will always remember.
Being 19 and on my own, I even had a lady make me promise to call her once I got home to Louisiana, so she would know I was safe. Where else but in the south???
Yes! This is the most rationale and evidence-based thread I’ve seen in ages. Apart from the game taking place in Death Valley (which is huge), it’s hard to discern an obvious edge for either team.
Either this game or the uga game we will see Emory take more than usual snaps to offset blitz packages. Mullen is a master at overcoming blitzing with dump off routes.
Can’t wait to see this battle. Hoping no injuries for both and no ref controversies.
And for what it’s worth, out of the 102,000+ fans at the game, there will be plenty who aren’t completely drunk. Some of us go and watch the game without being super intoxicated.
I just want a good game with no injuries for either team. At the end of the day this game is about bragging rights. The UF vs UGA game will determine the East and LSU vs Bama will determine the West.
Way back in the day, I watched a Mizzou-Nebraska game from the Rock M seats with my buddy while clandestinely sipping tequila. The game came down to the final seconds, with Mizzou leading the David Humm Huskies narrowly. Mizzou was backed up to its own goal line, but held the Huskers out for 3 downs. It came down to the final play! Very exciting! I was hootin’ and hollerin’! We knocked down Humm’s last-gasp pass and won over highly rated Nebraska. I was wildly jubilant and very tipsy, but when I looked over to my friend, he was snoring — oblivious in his tequila-induced stupor.
Some can hold it and some can’t, Timbo. Hats off to you.
I believe they will use emory jones in alot of plays..mullen has done well against us making big plays when the qb can run. Having zuniga back is huge for FL and hopefully we can get some protection. I dont think marshal is ready after only having surgery 2 weeks ago…if he did that would be huge. my prediction is 31-24 LSU
Minutely analytical, but not at all prophetic.
Vegas is both prophetic and quantitative (though not always correctly!). They have it this way:
LSU 34 Florida 21
Vegas’ accuracy rate is about 75%.
Vegas’ accuracy rate with Florida against a ranked opponent 2018-2019… 20% When Vegas favors a ranked opponent over Florida 2018-2019… 33%
As I said, “not always correctly”.
All I know is that we need DawgsofWar in here immediately to make a predication. That dude has been money in the bank all season so far.
“decided by a touchdown or fewer”
You can’t have “fewer” than “a touchdown” — should write “seven points or less”.
Marshall is not playing I don’t think.
He didnt practice yesterday
Always a fun night at our house, with my Gator wife and her Tiger husband. Good luck, UFers (not You F’ers). In the immortal words of Marvin Gaye, “Let’s get it on.” May the better team win.