Florida and Tennessee meet for the 53rd time Saturday evening in The Swamp (7 pm, ESPN) in a game with huge implications for both programs.

For Florida, it’s an opportunity to deliver a statement win to the chorus of white noise from outside doubters and an increasingly impatient fan base. While outside speculation that Billy Napier will be fired this season fails to understand the scale of Florida’s program reboot and the commitment and belief athletic director Scott Stricklin has in Napier’s plan, there’s no debating that an increasing swell of noise can become a self-fulfilling prophecy of failure too difficult to overcome.

Florida fans don’t want to hear that rival coach Mike Norvell was 0-4 with a loss to Jacksonville State in his second season in Tallahassee, for example. All they see is FSU in the top 5 today.

A top-10 program that competes for championships is what Florida fans expect, and every fast turnaround (see, Coach Prime) makes it more and more difficult to stay the course. If Florida wins Saturday night, it would give Napier his first rivalry win in 5 tries and help quiet his loud cynics. It would also signal to Florida’s sterling 2024 recruiting class that the ship is being righted, rather than sinking slowly. Such are the risks and rewards only rivalry games deliver.

At Tennessee, the game also matters, albeit for drastically different reasons.

Much has been made of the fact that Florida has won 16-of-18 against the Volunteers. Tennessee hasn’t won in Gainesville since George W. Bush’s first term as president, and the Vols have registered back-to-back wins against Florida just once since the SEC fully integrated in 1972.

Those facts, however, don’t define this game for the 2023 Volunteers.

History is for the fans, and this Tennessee team is living in the present. What that means for Josh Heupel’s program is that beating Florida in Gainesville is about the here and now, about showing the country that this year’s Tennessee team is deeper, more physical, better defensively and improved from last year’s 11-win Orange Bowl champion. It’s about a statement that this program’s turnaround is bigger than a magnificent season from Hendon Hooker. Tennessee’s players know that, which is why they started this week with a players only meeting after an uninspiring win at home over lowly FCS Austin Peay last Saturday.

“We are about what’s next,” defensive tackle Omari Thomas told the media on Tuesday. “We just met and said let’s have fun together, be ready to work, grow together. We’re about what this team can do.”

What can this team do? Can it run the ball effectively against the first defense it will face with comparable athletes? Can Joe Milton play pitch and catch with a group of receivers that looked lethal throughout summer camp but have only been open– and caught catchable balls — in flashes through 2 games? Is this defense,  which has played beautifully thus far, for real? Saturday is a chance for Tennessee to answer those questions. If the answers are positive, they’ll leave Gainesville winners for the first time in 2 decades.

Here are 3 matchups that will define the game.

Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson vs. Florida’s rebuilt front 7

There was a long stretch, from 1990-2010, where the team that won the rushing battle won the game. That old measurement might define Saturday’s game as well.

Tennessee’s running back trio of Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson looks like one of the best backfields in the country. The competition has been subpar, but they have gained 455 yards, rushed for 5 touchdowns and averaged 7.46 yards a carry in the process. That’s outstanding output, and they are doing it behind a line that could get Cooper Mays, one of the nation’s best centers, back on Saturday night.

Tennessee mauled the Gators for 227 yards rushing a season ago, but if this year’s Tennessee team is living in the moment, then film study will  have shown them that Florida’s front 7 is far better than the one they faced a season ago.

The Gators enter the game ranked 23rd in rushing defense and played well against one of the nation’s best rushing attacks on the road against Utah. Playing with a mobile (albeit backup) quarterback much of the game (see, what Florida will deal with Saturday night), the Utes managed just 105 yards and 3.5 per carry.

Wright has keyed the Volunteers’ balance for 2 seasons. Florida has improved its chances of slowing him by beefing up at defensive tackle, with run-stuffers Cam Jackson and Caleb Banks brought in from the portal, and converted interior lineman Tyreak Sapp becoming Florida’s first legitimate edge contain run defender since Cece Jefferson.

But the biggest improvement is at linebacker. The linebackers look like Florida linebackers again, which hasn’t been the case for a few seasons. Florida has 3 blue-chips starting at the linebacker spots, with veteran backups allowing Florida to mix and match personnel, especially in passing situations. In the middle of it all, Shemar James grades out as the top linebacker in the SEC through 2 weeks, according to PFF. 

His ability to track sideline to sideline has improved Florida’s ability to contain on the perimeter, where they were most vulnerable as a run defense last year (54% success rate against compared to this season’s 31%.)

An improved Vols run game, boosted by the return of Mays, against a stout Gators front? That almost sounds like a throwback to the days when Florida-Tennessee was one of the nation’s premier rivalries.

Graham Mertz downfield throwing vs. Tennessee’s secondary

Tennessee’s defense is deeper than it was in 2022 and thus far, the talent infusions seem to be paying dividends.

Florida’s biggest questions to date have been creating big plays, which was a weakness of UT’s defense a season ago. Tennessee ranked last in the Power 5 in long passing plays allowed last season, an obvious problem that ultimately cost the Vols a chance to do even more than win an Orange Bowl.

Tennessee’s first 2 opponents have not had a prayer of testing the secondary deep. But even with huge talent disparities, Tim Banks’ defense has surrendered 4 passing plays of 20 yards or more.

Is Florida ready to actually challenge Tennessee over the top?

It’s hard to know. Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz has an earned reputation as a check-down king at quarterback, and outside of 1 deep pass to Ricky Pearsall against lowly McNeese State, there’s little evidence he’s a downfield threat.

The “unknowns” might be Florida’s youthful receivers. The Vols undoubtedly will key on slowing Pearsall. Does that create opportunities for top-100 overall recruit Tre Wilson, a burner who has looked marvelous through 2 games, to make big plays? Is there another receiver — speedy Aidan Mizell or matchup problem Marcus Burke — ready to step up Saturday night?

Florida can’t win without some big plays, because Tennessee is too good to consistently allow long drives. Who makes those plays for the Gators?

Florida’s o-line vs. Tennessee’s talent on the edge

Through 2 games, the most welcome development on film for Tennessee has been the play of a menacing trio of edge defenders, James Pearce Jr., Tyler Baron and Aaron Beasley. Collectively, the group have 8 sacks and 12 tackles for loss.

That level of production is responsible for Tennessee’s 20% havoc rate in passing situations, an excellent number that, combined with a 17% run stuff rate, signifies the Volunteers can overwhelm you up front.

Florida’s rebuilt offensive line receives a boost this week when their lone All-SEC performer, Kingsley Eguakun, returns to the fold. But the onus will be on tackles Austin Barber, a member of the All-SEC freshman team a season ago, and Alabama transfer Damieon George, who struggled against Tennessee last season, to put together strong, low-penalty performances. If they don’t manage that, it may be a frustrating night for the Gators.

Prediction: Tennessee 26, Florida 14

The Volunteers’ defensive line will be the difference, overwhelming Florida up front and forcing Mertz to win the game with his arm. That’s a bad formula for the Gators, who will hang around for most the night until their defense tires late.