Florida welcomes LSU to The Swamp on Saturday night (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) for what promises to be an emotional Senior Day at Steve Spurrier Field.

Kyle Trask and Kadarius Toney are among the Gators’ seniors playing their final games in The Swamp, and while junior tight end Kyle Pitts has not ruled out a return for his senior season, this could very well be his final game in Gainesville as well. That this special group of seniors gets its final home game against LSU, against whom the Gators have had so many great games over the past decade, gives the evening even more meaning.

Florida’s battle with the Tigers also represents the last opportunity the Gators have to get better before facing No. 1 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game next weekend in Atlanta.

There is plenty for the Gators, who Dan Mullen thinks have yet to play a complete game, to work on against LSU. Florida’s run game, successful early in the season, has fallen off a cliff of late.  As a result, the Gators have posted “only” 34.5 points per game over the past 3 contests, as the lack of balance has allowed defenses to force Florida into uncomfortable down-and-distance situations more frequently. Trask is also getting hit and pressured a bit more than early in the season, as defenses are free to bring additional blitzers without the threat of the run game to hold defenders in gaps.

Florida can’t afford to just sit back and work on the run game against LSU, but creating at least the threat of balance would certainly build confidence for the Gators ahead of their title bout with the Crimson Tide.

As for LSU, the biggest question may be how invested they are in the remainder of the season. LSU is a very young team. The opportunity to wear the Tigers uniform is a privilege, and you’d think that the younger players would take the chance to impress the coaching staff ahead of 2021 seriously. The Tigers also hope to avoid having the 1st losing season in the program this century, a stunning decline given last season’s 15-0, national championship campaign.

That should be motivating, but LSU has dropped 3 of 4 and been outclassed in 2 of those games (Auburn and Alabama). They also announced a self-imposed bowl ban on Wednesday. As additional opt-outs pile up in Baton Rouge, it is fair to wonder just how excited the Tigers will be to play at Florida.

Here are 5 bold predictions for the Tigers and Gators with the above framing in mind.

Trask will eclipse 40 passing TDs in SEC play, a record he will hold for a long time

All right, all right. This isn’t that bold. Trask enters the LSU game with 38 touchdowns and needs just 2 to accomplish this feat. He needs “just” 3 to stay ahead of Joe Burrow’s 4-touchdown-a-game Heisman-winning pace from a season ago.

Will Trask win the Heisman Trophy? It probably comes down to the Alabama game, which means he’s more than likely going to finish 2nd, even if he enters the game as the betting favorite in Vegas.

What he won’t do is hurt his case Saturday night in The Swamp. LSU’s pass defense is the worst in the SEC, ranking 124th in yards allowed per pass attempt and 118th in explosive plays allowed. DBU this is not, and Trask will continue to make LSU miserable in defending the pass with a huge game.

A 100-yard game for John Emery Jr. and the LSU run game

If you just looked at advanced statistics, the LSU run game appears to have struggled in 2020. The Tigers rank just 109th in the nation in yards per rush attempt (3.2) and 113th in rushing success rate, woeful numbers that explain why LSU’s young quarterbacks have struggled at times down the stretch as teams drop extra men into coverage.

But there have been signs of improvement in the run game over the 2nd half of the season. The Tigers didn’t do anything against Texas A&M on the ground, but they managed a respectable 110 non-sack rushing yards against Alabama and rushed for 150 yards in their win over Arkansas.

Tyrion Davis-Price was getting more carries early in the season, but he averages a full yard less per carry than Emery, who looked good against the Crimson Tide behind a maturing offensive line.

Florida’s run defense has given up some explosive runs against quality power run games, and the Tigers really gashed Florida in the run game a season ago. Florida will adjust as they have all season and slow the run in the 2nd half, but the Tigers’ run game will hit some nice plays in the 1st half to keep things interesting.

Florida’s run game goes for 150 yards

Save the boldest prediction for 3rd, I guess.

As I wrote earlier this week, Florida’s run game has become less and less “successful” every week over the past month. A successful run is one in which a running back gains 40 percent of the yards needed on 1st down, 60 percent on 2nd or 100 percent on 3rd or 4th down. Florida was in the top 40 in the country in that category all season through the Vanderbilt game, but they’ve fallen out of the top half in the past 2 games, when the Gators have mustered just 123 yards on 42 attempts. Florida’s running backs have been miserable — only  5 of Florida’s past 20 rushing attempts by a running back have been “successful.”

LSU’s run defense isn’t bad; the Tigers rank 58th nationally against the run overall. But look closer and you’ll see that the Tigers give up 4.6 yards per attempt, which ranks a very mediocre 83rd nationally. Mullen said this week he felt his team could run the ball, but against Tennessee, the Vols were so determined to take it away that he more or less decided it wasn’t necessary.

It will be interesting to see LSU’s approach. As bad as the LSU secondary is, it still has an All-American in Derek Stingley Jr. How defensive coordinator Bo Pelini deploys Stingley, and how many he decides to drop into coverage, will be a fascinating tactical subplot in this game.

But I think the Gators get well running the ball to some extent, and post 150 yards rushing for the 1st time in almost a month.

2 touchdowns for Pitts

Pitts has 11 touchdown receptions in 6 1/2 games played, so this prediction is really just a guess that Pitts is only slightly ahead of his “average” on the season. Ed Orgeron noted how well Pitts played at LSU a season ago, when he caught 5 passes for 108 yards, with all 5 receptions coming working against either All-American Grant Delpit or Stingley.

Delpit is gone, and LSU’s safety play this year has been abysmal. The Tigers will have to be mindful of Florida seniors Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes, both explosive players in their own right, Saturday night. That should allow Mullen to scheme things up for Pitts, who will shine as he always does.

Kaiir Elam pick-6

LSU’s inexperience at quarterback has not only helped slow the Tigers’ run game as teams have loaded the box to take away the threat of balance. Forced to constantly throw, TJ Finley has thrown 5 interceptions, including a crucial pick-6 in the shadow of his own goalposts against Texas A&M. The other young LSU quarterback, Max Johnson, has taken better care of the ball and has not thrown an interception in his first 63 collegiate attempts. But there’s a 1st time for everything, and it might happen against Florida.

Kaiir Elam leads the SEC in passes defended and grades out as one of the SEC’s top 5 corners — ahead of Stingley, among others — per Pro Football Focus. Elam has 2 interceptions this season already, and he has dropped 2 more. When did he grab these picks? Late in the Vanderbilt and Georgia games, when young quarterbacks were forced to play catchup and throw. That’s what will happen Saturday, except this time, Elam will take one back to the house.