5 reasons Florida wins the Cocktail Party
For the 3rd consecutive season, Florida and Georgia will meet as top-10 teams in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS). The stakes are the same as they have been the past 2 years: firm control of the SEC East, a likely spot in the SEC Championship Game and a path to the College Football Playoff. More of the same, right?
On paper, that seems right.
In reality, this won’t just be a surreal Cocktail Party off the field, with COVID-19 limiting capacity and the bulk of the Cocktail Parties confined to people’s homes. It will be a different kind of Cocktail Party because the game feels like a tipping point for both programs.
Earlier this week in my piece on key matchups, I wrote that the bulk of the pressure is on Florida, and in particular, Dan Mullen. Florida hasn’t beaten Georgia in 3 years, and Mullen hasn’t beaten a team with Kirby Smart on the coaching staff since he was Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator, a run of frustration that includes 3 head-to-head matchups as head coaches. Plus, for all of Mullen’s proselytizing that “7 points” is all that separates his program from Georgia a season ago, the reality is that Kirby Smart and the Dawgs have controlled the past 2 games. Florida had less talent and played hard in both, but Georgia made every play they needed to win. Now, Mullen has closed the talent gap, and he arrives in Jacksonville with what will be an All-SEC senior quarterback and one of the most explosive offenses in the country (4th in S&P+ offense, 3rd in success rate, 6th in yards per play). If not now, when?
That’s not to say there isn’t pressure on Georgia, too.
It’s odd to think of a team with a top-5 ranking and the SEC’s best defense as entering a big game clouded with uncertainty. But as Florida fans know all too well, it all starts at quarterback.
Is Stetson Bennett IV Georgia’s best option? Can he conjure the magic he dialed up against Auburn or early in the game against Alabama, or will we get the version that has struggled since the 2nd half of the Alabama game? No one knows the answer, but regardless, Florida’s advantage at quarterback is substantial for the first time since the Tim Tebow era and, because of Matt Stafford, perhaps since Chris Leak.
Complicating matters, Georgia’s vaunted defense arrives in Jacksonville banged up and missing the program’s best player, Richard LeCounte III. It’s great to see LeCounte out of the hospital and recovering from the motorcycle scare he suffered last weekend. That matters most. His absence, along with a laundry list of other absences and players fighting through injuries, will be felt Saturday. Does Georgia still have enough juice to slow the vaunted Florida offense? Smart knows how to scheme Mullen up. He also hasn’t faced a Mullen offense this explosive since the Tebow days.
But Georgia doesn’t just feel pressure because the team has questions and concerns.
Smart feels it because he knows what a thorn in his side a rising Florida can be to his aspirations to build a Saban-like dynasty in Athens.
Thanks to Smart’s recruiting machine, the Bulldogs rank No. 1 in the nation in the current 247Sports Talent Composite, which combines the recruiting rankings of every player on each roster. Florida ranked 13th when Mullen arrived, a testament to Mullen’s own roster-building capability. But the Dawgs still have almost 20 more blue-chippers on their roster, and talent and depth win championships.
Is this Florida’s time to offset those disadvantages?
If it is, here are 5 reasons the Gators will win.
This time, there will be no Jake Fromm Cocktail Party heroics
Smart is basically 1 win away from becoming the first SEC coach since Steve Spurrier to capture 4 consecutive division titles.
The glass-half-full view is that Smart is making the best of a very difficult situation for Georgia that started when expected starter and media and fan-base Heisman candidate Jamie Newman opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns. D’Wan Mathis didn’t look ready after starting against Arkansas, JT Daniels might be good enough but probably isn’t healthy enough to play yet, and blue chip freshman Carson Beck hasn’t really been considered close to ready. Starting a former walk-on who works hard and Smart trusts makes some sense.
The thing is, Georgia’s quarterback situation is also of Smart’s own making.
Smart’s infatuation with Jake Fromm ultimately resulted in Justin Fields’ transfer to Ohio State and Jacob Eason’s departure to Washington, depriving the program of two 5-stars who, at a minimum, profile as better NFL-type talents than Fromm ever did. Those choices forced Smart to go get Newman this offseason, and when Newman opted out, Smart was left with what he had: Mathis, an injured Daniels, and the hardworking Bennett.
Here’s the thing about Fromm, though. He was a monster in the Cocktail Party, especially the past 2 seasons, when he helped Georgia convert 20 of 32 first downs while throwing for an average of 260 yards per contest and tossing 5 touchdowns. Last year, Florida’s defense did an outstanding job against D’Andre Swift and the Georgia run game, limiting the Dawgs to a season-low 2.9 yards per carry. It didn’t matter: Fromm made every play as Georgia went 12-for-18 on 3rd down and stormed out to a 16-3 lead they’d never relinquish.
That last anecdote is important, because the Georgia run game was much better last season than it has been this year. Part of that is due to Fromm. This season, Georgia ranks only 50th nationally in rushing success rate (though they did finish at an elite 62 percent number vs. Kentucky last week) and only 60th in yards per rush attempt (4.2), a number that is more than a half-yard worse than Florida’s (4.8), for example.
That raises the question: If Florida gangs up to stop the Georgia run, can Bennett make them pay? He probably will make a play here and there. But not enough of them.
Kyle Pitts. Enough said.
Georgia did a nice job defending Kyle Pitts last season. The Florida tight end had a productive 1st half, collecting 78 yards on 4 receptions, but went without a reception in the 2nd half.
A big reason? LeCounte, Georgia’s All-American single high safety, whom the Bulldogs deployed as help on Pitts throughout the 2nd half, trusting their corners to win a fair share of 1-on-1 battles against the Gators receivers.
Smart conceded this week that Pitts will be challenging to defend, both due to LeCounte’s absence and the way Florida has schemed ways to prevent double teams this season. As the graphic below demonstrates, Mullen does an excellent job moving Pitts around, placing pressure on various parts of the field and forcing recognition by the defense.
Passes to Florida's Kyle Pitts this year.
Line him up everywhere, throw to him everywhere. Love it.
(Red = comp, blue = INC, yellow = TD) pic.twitter.com/Rphu8W7tSy
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 4, 2020
Georgia will certainly limit Pitts to some extent. But the big tight end is a better player this season, and he’ll make a play or two that may potentially be the difference.
The Gators will do enough to slow the Georgia run game
Georgia is coming off their best running performance of 2020. The Dawgs racked up 215 yards rushing against Kentucky, despite a limited passing game that hit only 2 passes of 15 yards or more. Georgia’s 62 percent success rate against Kentucky is all the more impressive given the Cats have brilliant linebackers and were playing 7 and 8 in the box most of the afternoon.
Georgia’s run game hasn’t yet reached the “impose its will” status we’ve seen in years past under Smart, but it is improving. That said, as noted above, the Dawgs run game ranks around the middle of college football in both yards per attempt and success rate on the season. It’s a good run game, not a great one.
Florida’s run defense has surrendered 100 yards or more to both South Carolina’s Kevin Harris and Texas A&M’s Isaiah Spiller this season, and the Gators rank only 42nd nationally in rushing defense . But Florida’s best run-stopping safety, Donovan Stiner, should return this week, and their best run-leverage defensive tackle, Kyree Campbell, returned last week. Campbell’s return helped a shorthanded defense stuff a strong Missouri run game a week ago, limiting the Tigers to a paltry 40 yards. On the season, the Gators rank 38th in yards allowed per rush attempt, but Todd Grantham was encouraged by how his run defense looked with Campbell back, and Florida’s defense may be turning the corner at the optimal time.
They’ll do just enough to make Bennett beat them, which is Florida’s best pathway to winning.
Kyle Trask will have his Cocktail Party moment
If this game is close, trust Kyle Trask to make the plays needed to win.
This week, I’ve written about the ways Trask has improved his game in 2020, notably working on his arm strength and footwork in pressured or closing pockets. The most accurate and effective short route passer (1-10 yards) in college football, Trask can also spread the field vertically, as he is 2nd in the SEC in accuracy on throws of 16 yards or more and leads the SEC in accuracy on throws of more than 20 yards, per SEC Stat Cat. Despite the label, Trask is hardly a “dink and dunk” quarterback.
Georgia will be the best defense he has played, but the Dawgs are banged up and playing without one of their best defensive linemen and their best player in the secondary. Last year, Smart confused Trask with unusually exotic blitzes and disguised coverages, forcing Trask, making only his 6th college start, into some puzzling decisions and not allowing him to get comfortable.
That will be harder against the improved Trask, who is more experienced and enters the game ranked 4th nationally in pass efficiency (minimum 3 games). Playing a game that could cement his legacy as a Florida legend, Trask will, like Fromm and Aaron Murray before him, prove the value of having an All-SEC-caliber quarterback in this game.
Mullen is due (?)
This is the hottest take I’m offering, but if Florida is to win Saturday, it will be because Mullen doesn’t overthink things and trusts his offense, his players and the process.
Smart has had Mullen’s number, even accounting for the fact that you can’t put a ton of stock in repeated Alabama victories over the outmanned Mississippi State Bulldogs. Smart is 3-0 vs. Mullen as a head coach, and the 2 prior top-10 meetings have been controlled by Georgia.
Smart understands this rivalry in a way no Georgia coach has since Vince Dooley. He knows that every path to Georgia’s program goals runs through Jacksonville, and having lost to Florida 3 times as a player, he shares the contempt Spurrier had for his opponent in this game. In life, we often deliver our best when we are most passionate and focused, and that’s an apt description of Smart in the Cocktail Party.
Mullen is a Meyer protege, so he understands the value of rivalry games, too. But he has yet to win this game, and last season, Florida looked a bit overcoached, with multiple substitution penalties and complex coverage breakdowns and wristband-gate offered as a half-hearted explanation afterward.
Florida needs to avoid the urge to search for some silver bullet. They need to trust their personnel and system instead.
Expect Mullen, playing with a senior quarterback and one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, to understand that Saturday. If he doesn’t, he risks becoming a John Cooper to Lloyd Carr or Jim Harbaugh to Meyer type — a very good coach with a very good program, but one that is just south of a national power.
Note to self:
Self, usually when I say …Enough Said that means nothing else needs to be said on the matter, certainly not 6 more paragraphs on the subject.
For example…Kyle Pitts – Enough said
You probably licked windows as a child.
If I was betting money I’d put it on Florida Saturday. I think it’s a close game going into tomorrow and either team winning wouldn’t be a surprise or shocking.
If UGA didn’t have those injuries last week or if the offense wasn’t doing whatever it’s doing I’d feel more confident in UGA’s chances. Florida is a confident team with a good offense, Pitts is obviously elite, and I think they’ll be hype. Last year Fromm went beserk on 3rd down, his best game of the season, and that was the difference. I don’t expect that this year.
It’ll be a good, frustrating game and I’ll be pulling for UGA. But I do think Florida comes away with the W. But that’s why they play. I’m ready for 3:30.
Already the injury excuse. We didn’t have our 2 best defensive players available last year.
I’m making zero excuse. I mentioned it, along with other points on both teams, and I did not imply in anyway it would discredit a Florida win.
Have a great weekend
You too man!!! (Although I suspect that if one of us is having a great weekend, the other one won’t be lol)
just shut up, you moron…he never made an excuse. and the 2 defensive starters you were “missing” last year had no bearing on the game compared to what UGA is missing this year. one of the guys missing completely shut down your “elite” TE last year…yep, ZERO catches when he was on him. that guy makes much more of a difference than the 2 bums the gayturds were missing last year
Disagree, then name call. Disagree some more, defame Gator name with very original slur… Overall a well reasoned and thoughtful response..
You can always spot the trolls/12 year olds by the use of things like “gayturd.” Does any mature adult make that comment? No. If the person is an adult, it’s just further proof that the education system in this country is truly failing.
Colts embarrassment, the only “ZERO” that applies to your’e post is football knowledge and class.
I certainly hope you do not coach kids. They’ve got enough obstacles to navigate as it is.
While there are lots of good points in this article, in general, I would caution against comparing stats from this year to stats from last year. At the time the WLOCP was played last year, UGA and Florida had at least two games (I’m too lazy to look up the exact number) against cup cakes. It’s critical to only look at stats from Power 5 competition, if not SEC-only, when comparing to 2020.
Great point.
“Florida ranked 13th when Mullen arrived, a testament to Mullen’s own roster-building capability.”
How is the ranking when he arrived a testament to Mullen’s roster-building capability? What is UF ranked now?
Florida is ranked 7 now
Yes, editing error.
It happens. I enjoy your articles though
He’s ranked just schooled yah beeeachhhhh.
The Mullen hasn’t beaten Smart as a head coach thing is a lot less meaningful when you consider circumstances, like the talent ceiling at Mississippi State and that Smart has a two year program building head start on Mullen. This will be only Mullen’s third game in the Cocktail Party as head coach. Mullen is 3-1 in this game as Florida’s OC.
Florida should win this game. The offense is light years better this year than last year. And with Campbell back, the defense should be adequate.
The only record that should matter is Kirby @ UGa vs Mullen @ UF. So right now Kirby is 2-0. Not dominating Mullen but he has been better
Agreed
Nash, not to split hairs, but you reference that a head to head match-up of mullen at msu vs smart at uga should mean little, but you felt bringing up mullen’s record as an oc at uf was valid?
as for the 2017 game btwn the two, ms state was ranked 17 and coming off a big, blowout win of lsu. uga was ranked 11….so it’s not like it was some goliath v david match-up where ms state was some bottom dweller. further, what about mullen’s head start and his system ingrained in his players at msu in taking on uga? you can’t downplay that mullen had an advantage with more time with those players vs what cks had at the time at uga….but then stress the importance of how valuable it was for cks to be at uga two yrs prior to mullen.
nevertheless, concentrating just on their records as HCs at uga and uf, cks is 2-0. the head to head record will either be 3-0 or 2-1 after sat.
You can’t be serious with your assessment of those 2017 teams. Despite what MSU was ranked at the time UGA was still a far superior team across the board. The only reason they were ranked 17 was because they beat an over ranked LSU team who went on to lose 4 games, so it was hardly a BIG blowout win. UGA went on to play for a title. Let’s not act like those teams were even remotely close in talent. It was definitely a David v. Goliath matchup as was every top team from the SEC vs MSU during Mullen’s tenure. His recruiting classes only ranked higher than 22 once and that was ranked 18.
sure i can be serious. ms state was 3-0 and ranked 17 and uga was 3-0 with a true fresh qb making his 3rd career start. ms state was the hot shot upset pick after dismantling lsu 37-7 (not sure how you don’t consider that a big blow out win, especially when lsu was ranked). as for lsu being over[rated], were you the guy in the corner yelling that back in sept 2017? of course you weren’t. you also weren’t the guy yelling it in january 2018 either as they finished 9-4 and ranked 18. there’s a lot to be said about a team’s psyche….and the ms state team’s psyche was that they were “hot sh!t” heading into that game. they got punched in the mouth to the same tune that ms state had punched lsu the week prior. in hindsight, we can easily say that uga was a level better, but don’t pretend that ms state teams wasn’t a formidable opponent…as they finished the season 9-4 and ranked 19.
if mullen was running such a ‘david’ program, he never would have been given the keys to the uf team. mullen is without question a good coach and he unquestionably had a leg up on smart in the experience category. i’m not saying the talent level was the same….but that game was not a david v goliath match up for reasons i’ve posted above.
Lol, ok clearly you’re delusional about about the talent level of both teams. Mullen is known for getting everything out of his players. It’s pretty evident by what happened to that program after he left. But keep believe those teams were even remotely close in talent if it makes you feel better.
P, I only brought up the OC stuff to highlight my belief that a lot of these discussions about Smart versus Mullen are meaningless. There’s no magic to Smart’s head-to-head edge over Mullen. Of course, he (Smart) is an excellent coach. But he has also enjoyed a very significant talent advantage in every match-up against Mullen except the 2008 SECCG (which Florida won).
Research by Bill Elliott at 247 suggests you need to reach a Blue Chip Ratio (Elliott coined the term) of at least 50% to be consistently competitive with the top four or five teams in the 247 team talent composite. Or perhaps at least 45% with a great quarterback (Clemson won its 2016 NC with a BCR of 46%).
Over the last five years, Mississippi State’s Blue Chip Ratio ranged between 15% and 26%. No matter who the coach is; no matter how good a recruiter he is, MSU’s BCR just ain’t gonna get north of 30%. It’s Starkville. They’re going to have some 4-stars and the occasional 5-star. But they’re never going to have 42+ of them.
So Mullen comes to Florida. He inherits a roster that ranged between 28% and 33% in Blue Chip Ratio from 2015 to 2017 under McElwain. Here’s Florida’s BCR for each of Mullen’s first three seasons at Florida:
2018 — 41%
2019 — 46%
2020 — 56%
Two observations. First, the guy who supposedly can’t recruit has almost doubled Florida’s BCR since his arrival (and it would be 58%, had Trask been properly evaluated in high school). So maybe, just maybe, a significant part of recruiting is structural.
Second, while less talented teams can always upset a group of more talented 18- to 22-year olds (see South Carolina’s upset of Georgia last year), this is the first year that Florida has crossed the talent threshold of 50%, where they should be able to beat Georgia even on a day when both teams play well.
Obviously, there are unique match-up issues. And each team will be missing key players on defense Saturday. (For all the talk of LeCounte and Davis, Florida will miss Carter for the first half and it still isn’t clear if its field goal kicker, a starting corner and a starting safety will be available).
Should be a great game. I can’t wait.
Reason #6: At least Florida belongs in the south going as a red state. They can’t even count in Georgia….if they go blue it’s time for them to join some other conference, they don’t belong in the SEC
Or maybe the MAJORITY in Ga are smart enough to not want a narcissistic racist Russian agent running the country. We truly are trying to “make America great again” by getting him out of office. People in Florida during typical Florida things.
doing not during
You must have been educated in the Atlanta school system
I’m in the blue suburbs.
Not racist
Not Russian agent
But hey you can’t change what an ignorant fool believes
I forgot sexist. Him and Moscow Mitch were a terrible team for the country. You conservatives I to fiend patriotism but had nothing to say when Trump was attacking John McCain after he passed. MAGA my @$$.
better than being a sellout to China
Tim Dillon’s skit on McCain and his daughter is epic.
Are the majority of people smart enough to know that they voted for Harris instead of Biden? My Mom died from dementia so this next part isn’t a slam or sarcasm. Biden appears to be early on set. I bet Biden is deemed mentally incompetent within a year and the extremely socialist Harris will be President. Sanders gets to be VP. Planned all along.
I don’t agree with any of you dirtbags very often, but yes, Harris will be POTUS by early 2022…a “black” woman is what all of these Dem Libtards wanted anyway
Please refrain from mixing politics with college football. There’s already more than enough contentiousness on this site.
Everyone here is forgetting the X-factor. Georgia’s defense is banged up and their offense has been struggling. Florida’s offense has been flying high and their defense is starting to show life. Obviously, Florida should be beat Georgia handily.
But then you’ve got the 2020 X-factor that says conventional wisdom is always wrong. So, since Florida SHOULD beat the mess out of Georgia, it’s only natural to assume that Georgia is gonna blow Florida out with an all-time points record against Florida in the series because it’s the least likely thing to happen.
Thoughts? Lol
Those big buildings in Vegas seem to think otherwise. I wonder how many who are sure Florida will top Georgia are willing to place money on it.
That was meant as a joke. But since we’re on the topic, even Vegas has been pretty far off this year like everyone else.
right, at no point does anyone with half of a functioning brain thinks that flarduh should “beat the mess” out of UGA. Tennesse and flarduh both mashed mizzou, and UGA did pretty well vs one of those teams lol
You missed the point to this comment completely.
The count in Georgia is going just fine it’s just there’s a lot of absentee ballots most for our next President Joseph Biden. Quit playing The Conspiracy Theory name-calling game. The cult Has Fallen. By the way Hillary is still free haha
Didn’t realize the WLOCP had anything to do with politics.
Good grief we got enough politics this week.
Right!
Wild-guess prediction: If UGA’s offense can’t muddle its way to a win, this year’s UGA heroics will come courtesy of JT Daniels.
Kirby will stick with Stetson Bennett IV for 60 minutes Saturday…win or lose, then the debate can begin…If JT Daniels had played ? Right ?
Nah, this is a must-win game to get to the goal of the SECCG. Mathis could come back in — he has apparently been the second string QB since Bennett took over. If Bennett were to falter, I’d actually like to see Mathis come in and do well — it’d be great to see him bounce back.
One thing people on here need to understand, is the triangle theory does not and never has worked. Because A beat B and B beat C, does not mean A will beat C. Teams have great spots and bad spots from week to week. Also, most of you simply look at the score and not what transpired. Finally, you can not use Alabama as a comparison. Alabama raced out to a big lead against Missouri and then lost interest….and focus. Is there any doubt they could have won 70-7 had they wanted to? Saban played starters until less than 5 to go against Georgia, but he pulled them earlier than I have ever seen against Tennessee. Fact is, this is a good “spot” for Florida, but only because of the defensive injuries. Really curious as to how long Smart goes with Bennett if things go south.
I assume some or most of you are young on here. We should keep politics out of the board, but with what has transpired this week, it is difficult. No matter your thoughts, we have NEVER seen an election like this. What should concern all of us is that the media proved they can control who is in office. They have spent four years smearing and lying about the President. Just listen to dirty south, he is regurgitating what has been played on CNN for the last three years. Doesn’t matter the Russian probe was proven false and zero to back up claims of being a racist. Allowing race hustlers and the media to control your mind will lead to another Venezuela.
Notice how no Biden supporter begins by telling you why they like Biden or what policies he backs they agree with. It is always about their hatred for Trump. So we have a new President elected on hatred and propaganda. Never mind the tax reform, the first step act (1st legislative act to end mass incarceration),defeating ISIS,lowest unemployment rate across the board EVER, stood up to China/N.Korea and crippled Iran, pressured Mexico to end illegal immigration, etc as I could go on.
See, none of that matters because Americans are more concerned with their own personal feelings, their own hatred. “I’d rather the country do worse, pay more in taxes, sky high gas prices and less money in my pocket”, is what they have decided. Go and celebrate, but own this. In two years, don’t blame anyone but yourselves. Xi JinPing, leader of China, is thrilled, just like some of you. Does that sound like a good thing?
That’s quite hyperbolic. The media has always been liberal. That didn’t stop Bush or Trump from being elected. Trump stopped Trump from being re-elected. The proof is that Republican candidates did quite well in the House and Senate races.