Florida and Texas A&M meet for the 7th time on Saturday afternoon when the Aggies visit The Swamp for the first time since 2017 (3:30 PM ET, ESPN).

In 2022, Florida won the last meeting 41-24 in College Station behind a brilliant Anthony Richardson, but the Aggies were victorious in their last visit to The Swamp, upending Jim McElwain and the Gators 19-17 in an ugly game that is best remembered for Florida’s alligator-themed uniforms. Yes, the Gators dressed up like actual alligators. And lost.

Saturday’s tilt is the SEC opener for both programs and the first SEC game for Texas A&M under new head coach Mike Elko.

There should be a sense of urgency on both sidelines.

Despite having 2 of the best home-field advantages in the sport, the Gators and Aggies suffered disappointing losses at home to open the season. Florida was embarrassed by now-No. 10 Miami 41-17. Texas A&M was dire offensively and fell to now-No. 18 Notre Dame, 23-13, a loss that didn’t seem too maddening until Northern Illinois walked into Touchdown Jesus’s backyard and physically manhandled the Fighting Irish a week later.

Both teams recovered to wallop overmatched FCS foes in Week 2, but both wins are subject to the “It’s just Samford” and “It’s just McNeese” disclaimers.

In other words, both teams are desperate to prove themselves.

Texas A&M is the slightly more talented team, ranking 7th in the 247 Talent Composite (Florida is 12th), and perhaps due to the modest talent difference, the Aggies are favored by 3.5 points, via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Is the urgency higher on the Florida sideline?

It probably should be. Florida’s much-maligned head coach Billy Napier desperately needs a win to cool his sizzling hot seat. A loss would drop him to an astoundingly poor 5-6 in home games against power conference opposition in The Swamp during his 2-plus year tenure.

Is the game a must have for the Gators? At least some believe it is.

“I think “must win” is an understatement,” ESPN’s Paul Finebaum said of the Gators this week while talking to Greg McElroy on “Always Football.” “I think should Napier fail to win the game and Florida loses again, I can’t see how he survives.”

While SDS does not believe Napier would be dismissed immediately if Florida is defeated on Saturday, it is difficult to see a scenario where Napier can recover from another home loss — this time to a Texas A&M team that while talented is in a transition season under Elko, the program’s first-year head coach.

Elko and A&M have added incentive, too. A win would end Texas A&M’s 10-game road losing streak, the longest such run of road game futility at Texas A&M since the full integration of college football.

“We’re confident that it ends this week,” Texas A&M defensive lineman Shemar Stewart told the media. “We will go out there and play our hearts out and I feel confident we will go in there on Saturday and come out with a win. We have a different feel to us this week. We’ve taken it up a notch. We’re ready.”

Will Florida match Texas A&M’s swagger and intensity?

Here are 3 matchups that will define the Gators and the Aggies.

Will Texas A&M’s talented defensive line finally produce?

Through 2 weeks of football, Texas A&M ranks last in college football in sacks, with just 1.

This is a terribly surprising development given this is the most talented defensive front this side of Athens in the SEC, per the 247 composite, with 10 blue-chip talents.

Elko is more concerned with his team’s run defense, which ranks 110th, than the pass rush, and I think that’s fair. While you can criticize A&M’s linebacker corps from a talent standpoint, especially against the run, where players like Scooby Williams have always struggled, it’s hard to imagine a defensive line with elite talents like Shemar Turner, Shemar Stewart, DJ Hicks and Nic Scourton failing to breakthrough eventually.

The asterisk to this?

The Aggies have failed to generate much pressure despite playing an undersized FCS opponent and a revamped Notre Dame line returning just 1 starter, playing its first game on the road.

Florida isn’t any better than Notre Dame up front, though, and the right side of Florida’s offensive line has been a disaster. The Gators surrendered 10 pressures and 3 sacks in their opening defeat to Miami, grading out at a miserable 57.1 as a pass blocking unit.

Florida shuffled its starters and performed better against Samford, but that means little. The reality is the A&M front is more talented than Miami’s outstanding front, at least on paper.

This is the largest mismatch in the game.

If the Aggies can generate consistent pressure on Graham Mertz and/or DJ Lagway, the Gators path to victory becomes terribly narrow.

Texas A&M’s run game vs. Florida’s improved LB corps

Florida is better at linebacker this season. That much is evident after 2 games.

Shemar James is an All-SEC talent and healthy and he’s partnered by South Carolina transfer Pup Howard, who was the best Florida player defensively against Miami, grading out an impressive 83.8 in run fits. Derek Wingo adds a smart player who plays with good technique. Florida has allowed 102.5 yards per game on the ground, just 48th in the country, but the Gators are limiting opponents to just a 41% success rate in run defense, a vast improvement from a season ago when Florida ranked 81st nationally against the run and allowed an opponent rushing success rate of 55%.

While Texas A&M rushed for 333 yards against McNeese State a week ago, they struggled to consistently run the ball against Notre Dame at home. Playing a talented Florida linebacker corps and defensive line with solid depth on the interior, the Aggies may find it tough to establish the run on the road.

Can Trey Zuhn III and Chase Bisontis, both marvelous against McNeese, show out again against Florida? How much will Texas A&M miss All-SEC guard Layden Robinson in their first road game of the season? Will the struggling Dametrious Crownover and inconsistent center Kolinu’u Faaiu, who each graded out poorly (66.6 and 60.7, respectively, per PFF) against Notre Dame, be better against the Gators?

The Aggies have quality talent at running back, but they’ll need to do better than the 3.8 yards per carry and 42% success rate they managed in their opening week loss to the Fighting Irish.

Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway against Texas A&M’s unproven secondary

Texas A&M lost All-SEC defensive back Josh DeBerry, corner Deuce Harmon, and safeties Demani Richardson and Jacoby Matthews from last season’s 7-6 team. Collectively, that was 3 of the Aggies’ top 6 tacklers and 34 career starts. Despite that attrition, there was “addition by subtraction” talk in College Station throughout fall camp with Elko bringing in a quartet of full-time starters as transfers along with immensely talented Alabama corner Dezz Ricks.

The Aggies new group held up well in the first 2 games, but Florida’s wide receiver corps and quarterback duo will easily be the best pure passers and receivers they have faced.

There is plenty of understandable chatter around Florida’s quarterback situation.

Will the Gators stick with the steady Graham Mertz, the most accurate returning passer in the SEC who finished 4th in the SEC in passing success rate a season ago or will Napier roll with 5-star freshman DJ Lagway, the Gatorade National Player of the Year who looked magnificent in Florida’s 45-7 rout of Samford last week?

Napier has said all week that both will play. But what will that look like? 

Whatever Napier does, I don’t think it will confuse Elko. One of the best defensive minds in the sport, Elko will have disguised coverages and looks dialed up for when Lagway plays and a series of zone defenses and blitzes for when the less mobile Mertz plays.

The other problem for Napier? The overlap between what Mertz and Lagway offer is minimal, which means playing both doesn’t necessarily make the Gators more multiple.

That’s why Florida should stick with Lagway if Mertz struggles early.

Lagway, a Texas native who chose the Gators despite a furious late push by Texas A&M, offers Florida more explosive plays and verticality in its offense, even if he’s the riskier play.

Here Lagway connects with Elijhah Badger in 1-on-1 coverage. But note that as open as Badger looks when he catches the ball — Lagway has the anticipation and instincts to let it fly before his man is open — and the ability to make the throw in space.


This 41-yard touchdown strike to Aidan Mizell is the one everyone was talking about after the game, and for good reason.

Here, Lagway was flushed from the pocket because, predictably, the right side of Florida’s offensive line wilted like a flower. Lagway originally tried to connect with Chimere Dike, who ran a go route in the slot. He then stepped up into the pocket but ignords his second read, a check down, in favor of his third read, Mizell, who was well covered on a double move flag concept. No matter. Lagway threw Mizell open, tucking the ball just past the corner and to Mizell’s inside, where only he could catch it.

The first play is the type of throw Mertz can’t consistently make.

The second is the type of throw Mertz cannot make, period.

Consider this: Florida made 5 pass plays of 40 yards or more in Saturday’s win over Samford. A season ago, Mertz made 5 all season. Is Lagway a higher risk play? Sure. But so was freshman Trevor Lawrence at Clemson.

Napier is coaching for his future at Florida. His best chance to win is likely Lagway, who could be the future at Florida.

Florida has favorable matchups at receiver, but an unfavorable one in getting time to throw. The ability of Florida’s quarterbacks to extend plays and/or anticipate receivers coming open despite pressure could be the deciding factor in the football game.

Prediction: Texas A&M 23, Florida 20

Florida will not be able to block Texas A&M, which will force a turnover or 2 and get just enough from Conner Weigman in the passing game to open up running lanes as the game wears on. Napier will stick with Mertz too long — and the Gators won’t be able to score enough to win.