Todd Grantham has been a successful hire for Florida, but it feels like his future perception hinges on 1 thing
Go back to 2017. If you told any Florida fan in the first 2 years of the Dan Mullen era that Todd Grantham would lead consecutive top-20 defenses and that the Gators would win double-digit games and a New Year’s 6 Bowl in both seasons, they would’ve fist-pumped like Tiger Woods sinking a 30-foot putt to win a major.
Grantham’s overall body of work has been, by any stretch, a success. His ability to dial up pressure has been at the foundation of a pair of successful defenses. We saw the likes of Jon Greenard, Jabari Zuniga, Jachai Polite and others break out as impact players the past 2 years. The Gators had 3 defensive players drafted each of the past 2 years, and if the early outlook for the 2020 defense is any indication, that’ll continue.
There’s a reason Grantham was linked to openings like the defensive coordinator position with the Cincinnati Bengals after 2018 and the head coach vacancy at Mississippi State after 2019. Florida avoided those scares and returned one of the better coordinators in America.
But fair or not, it feels like 2020 is a potential breaking point for Grantham’s reputation among Florida fans. Grantham could enter November with the No. 1 defense in America, but if he fails to adjust and loses to Georgia for a 3rd consecutive time, well, let’s just say there won’t be any fist-pumping.
It’s no secret that Georgia has been Florida’s bugaboo during the brief Mullen era. Grantham shouldered the blame for both losses for a simple reason — Georgia turned “3rd and Grantham” into a field day.
In 2018, the Dawgs went 8-for-14 on 3rd down. Four of those conversions resulted in touchdowns, and 3 of them came on 3rd-and-5 or longer. Those sequences turned what felt like an even game into a 3-score Georgia victory.
One could argue that the 2019 Georgia loss was even more frustrating for Florida. While the overall numbers were an improvement (Georgia had fewer points and total yards), that 3rd down number was even worse. Jake Fromm and the inconsistent Georgia offense was 12-of-18 on 3rd downs.
The last 3rd-down conversion happened when Georgia was clinging to a 24-17 lead with 3rd-and-7 on its own 35-yard line with 3 minutes left. Grantham sent 7, but it didn’t matter. A flat-footed Fromm found Eli Wolf for a 22-yard gain to all but close the door on Florida’s comeback attempt.
That play gave Georgia its 6th conversion on 3rd down of 6 yards or more:
Today, Georgia converted:
3rd and 15.
3rd and 11.
3rd and 6.
3rd and 6 again.
3rd and 8.
3rd and 7.All against the same weak zone defense. Todd Grantham just never adjusted.
— InAllKindsOfWeather.com (@AllKindsWeather) November 2, 2019
That’s the issue right there — the lack of adjustments. A system predicated on pressure didn’t generate enough of it against an elite offensive line, and a veteran quarterback found the soft spots of Florida’s zone in the crucial moments of a make-or-break game (the Gators were in man coverage on that Wolf catch). Grantham’s refusal to blitz for most of the game — and not get home when he did send pressure — proved costly.
The formula isn’t that complicated. In fact, Georgia sort of made a habit of doing that against Grantham:
Georgia converted a season-high 12 third downs vs. Florida, its most against a ranked team since the 2014 Belk Bowl vs. Louisville.
Todd Grantham was the defensive coordinator in both games. pic.twitter.com/b4tcPCzPVY
— Jason Starrett (@starrettjason) November 2, 2019
This is the part where Georgia fans belly laugh because obviously they’ve seen their fair share of success since Grantham was fired from that role in Athens. To be fair, that 2013 Georgia defense was incredibly young and decimated by injuries. The deck was stacked against Grantham in his last year in Athens.
Entering Year 3 on the other side of the rivalry, though, one could argue that the deck is stacked more in Grantham’s favor than ever. Besides not having to face Fromm, who never lost to Florida, Grantham’s defense will take on Georgia’s new Air Raid offense, which features a new starting quarterback, a new offensive coordinator a new go-to receiver who isn’t Lawrence Cager (music to Florida fans’ ears) and an offensive line that just lost 4 starters. Oh, and a pandemic prevented that new-look group from having spring practice.
Georgia’s offense made the season-to-season adjustment. The question is if Grantham can do the same, albeit in a different way. Is it as simple as just switching to a man-heavy approach to get stops on 3rd down in Jacksonville? The personnel is there to do that.
Florida lost Round 1 pick C.J. Henderson, but there’s still plenty of experience returning in the secondary. Kaiir Elam’s true freshman season was overshadowed by LSU All-American Derek Stingley, but he has the makeup of an All-SEC corner (some of the Pro Football Focus numbers on him are absurdly good). He’ll line up with Marco Wilson, who elected to stay for his senior year instead of leaving for the NFL after he had 3 interceptions in 2019. Also helpful is the depth Florida has at safety with Shawn Davis and Donovan Stiner both back, though Grantham could use some more consistency in the secondary.
Grantham did actually make some post-Georgia adjustments last year. Shifting Wilson to the nickel corner position (Star) was meant to allow Trey Dean to line up on the outside after his 2019 struggles at the position, and that yielded positive results down the stretch. It remains to be seen what that’ll look like in 2020.
It also remains to be seen just how effective Florida’s defense can be in its non-Georgia games. A group that could never seemingly get Greenard and Zuniga healthy at the same time was still No. 7 nationally in fewest points allowed. Florida is in the middle of the pack in terms of returning defensive production because of the turnover in the front 7. Maximizing the potential of guys like Jeremiah Moon and former Georgia transfer Brenton Cox could determine how badly Gators fans miss guys like Greenard, Zuniga and David Reese. It’s up to Grantham to take care of that.
It’s also up to Grantham to take care of the cloud that’s been hovering over him since he arrived in Gainesville. It’s hard to imagine a coordinator getting fired after a 3rd year with a top-20 defense, though if his defense drops the ball in key moments against Georgia yet again, there will be even louder calls for Mullen to make a change. He’d have to at least consider the possibility that Grantham’s lack of adjustments is limiting Florida’s ceiling (in case that hasn’t already crossed Mullen’s mind).
What’s Florida’s ceiling in 2020? Given the turnover among the SEC contenders, especially Georgia’s offense, it sure seems like a prime opportunity awaits the Gators following this pandemic-driven offseason (if we get a 2020 season).
It probably doesn’t make sense to call it a “make-or-break” year in Gainesville, though there’s clearly some increased urgency for Mullen to get over the Georgia hump in Year 3. There’s probably a more fitting way to describe this Florida season.
“Third and Grantham.”
Hopefully mullet and 3rd are in Gainesville for many seasons!
I suppose this article was to be expected. But a more insightful take would have explained just precisely what adjustments Grantham would have made against Georgia. One 3rd down conversion was a dropped pass called a catch. Another (the last one) was a frankly great play by Fromm under pressure.
The rest? As I suggested in the comments to the Florida defensive preview article, Fromm’s 3rd down pass protection was excellent. There was no adjustment and Connor admits as much when he notes (indirectly) that the blitzes didn’t work.
Florida ranked 9th in 2019 total defense, 6th if you throw out the stats for UAB, Buffalo and San Diego State, which don’t play the same level of competition. Georgia fan negative branding of Grantham aside, and saying nothing about Mullen’s penchant for loyalty to staff, do you seriously think a guy with a top 10 defense is going to get fired?
Agree…the issue was we didn’t generate much pressure up the middle last year. With Fromm’s lack of mobility that would have been the difference. I think we lost the game on offense last year as much as we did on defense. Sure the third down conversions killed us, but we also didn’t helps ourselves by our inability to convert key third downs on offense.
UGA’s O line played it’s best game of the season in pass pro that game. Mostly because the blitzes were unimaginative and depended on guys winning one on one matchups. If you wanted to beat UGA up the middle, send a twist on Kindley and Trey Hill. If you wanted to beat Wilson, crash your 3 tech and have your 9 go outside in on Wilson with a LB flowing the contain area. There was no luck beating Thomas so no point there. The problem was they kept sending schemes relying on a guy to win straight up and when they were sending more guys than UGA had blocking, they telegraphed it. Fromm was very good at seeing that stuff and they exploited it.
Not many teams converted 3rd downs on UGA last year but Florida could have won that game with a better defensive gameplan. UGA was sputtering all season on offense with bad gameplans and Florida was the one team that played into UGA’s plan.
Matty, the Gators did run twists on 3rd down in the first half. They were well blocked. They actually seemed to get more effective pressure straight ahead. When the Gators sent the house in the 3rd quarter, the running back picked up the safety perfectly.
The most successful pass rushes against Georgia all year were bull rushing defensive tackles up the middle (Derrick Brown and Javon Kinlaw, in particular). Alas, Florida did not have one of those guys.
We lost that guy before the season started. Gervin Dexter will be that guy now.
I think Grantham tends to send a lot of delayed blitzers. They just took a bit too long for the fast decision making of Fromm.
Also, it’s ludicrous to make any claims about what Grantham “needs” to with respect to Georgia to improve in 2020 compared to 2019. Suppose Newman is the starting QB for Georgia and the offense is as productive as Dawg fans hope. It’ll be a completely different situation from 2019, and will have to be viewed as such.
If you buy into the theory that the 28 SEC coordinators are all roughly within a narrow range of high competency compared to the rest of American football, then it goes without saying that any one defensive coordinator is going to make minimal difference when stopping or falling to another offensive coordinator’s strategies.
Can we all agree that a very high majority of scrimmage plays are won by the team with the better talent performing at the proper techninques?
What percentage does talent alone count toward winning games and winning scrimmage plays? I have heard the number 90-95% from past SEC coaches. Sometimes the best coaching jobs are done by the teams with the weaker talent, but their teams lose to the superior teams even though the adversary on the other sideline didn’t do as good a job as the losing coaching staff.
This is not an indictment on the coaches of the superior teams. Actually, when the talent is superior, coaches probably do best by letting their players play and not burdening them with too much extra.
In my opinion, Grantham is one of 14 Grade A defensive coordinators in the SEC. To get that job, and the DC position at any of the 14 members, a candidate must already be an A-grade coach.
LH61, I believe those coaches you’ve spoken with sincerely believe the 90-95% number range because they do understand that elite talent is an ante… but most probably do not understand their own cognitive biases.
Football is a team sport and a fairly complex one at that. Scheme matters. Experience matters. Quality of practice matters. Strength and endurance matter. And of course, luck (e.g., avoiding key injuries).
Sports contests are won by the most talented athletes. But in a complex team sport like football, I would put talent lower; at perhaps 70-75%.
I can buy that, but at the same time, I also believe if you lower the number, you also need to make the extra coaching advantage variable. One coordinator might make the wrong decision one week but make the decisive winning decision the next week. I would rate Grantham just as highly as I would rate Dan Lanning, or more importantly Todd Monken. It’s like Brooks Koepka being the dominant golfer one week and making a better decision with his coordinator/caddie that Dustin Johnson did not make, and it allowed him to win by one stroke. Johnson might return the favor in the next tournament, but overall, the fact that they are two of the best 10 golfers in the world is what really matters, and just how close to top-potential they play from week to week matters more than anything.
Grantham has a lot of big talent to replace this year. Jonathan Greenard will not easily be replaced, but the new starters will most likely show considerable improvement if the season progresses. The same goes with Lanning, who will have the best overall defensive talent in the division.
Even Vanderbilt DC Ted Roof is a highly qualified coordinator. Give him Georgia’s defense, and he would produce nearly identical numbers with the Junkyard Dogs. Give Grantham or Lanning the Vanderbilt defense, and even with all 11 starters returning, they won’t be able to stop the Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M offenses that will torch them for a lot of points if these games are played. There is just so much you can do with 3 star talent when it plays 4 and 5 star talent 9 times a year. That’s what happens to 3 star talent with little depth and why when you sandwich a game against UNLV between two important, supposedly winnable conference games, you give up 34 points to a G5 team averaging 15 points per game against FBS teams.
I agree completely, on both ends of the spectrum. A great coach can beat an incrementally more talented team. And an average coach looks a whole lot better when working with great talent.
What sets the great teams apart from merely good teams isn’t just their starters. It’s their quality depth. The biggest fundamental change in college football since the 85 scholarship limit is more competitive games…
for three quarters.
“Georgia’s new Air Raid offense”
Connor, please site your source. Because no one from UGA’s coaching staff has come even remotely close to saying UGA will now be running the Air Raid.
He’s been saying it for 7 months. I’ve tried correcting him in the past to no avail.
It’s Monken’s preferred style. If Kirby wanted to run the same old vanilla offense there was a line of vanilla coordinators to choose from. He could have justified keeping Coley. Monken is there because Kirby knows what he brings and that’s what he wanted. Those are going to be the play designs. Tempo might be a different factor but you are going to see the run-pass dynamic likely shift from 60-40 to 50-50 or 40-60 and I think that will be a good thing for the run game and the pass game.
I agree with everything you said. But changing tempo and run/pass ratio doesn’t necessarily equate to running an Air Raid though. Based on Kirby’s words and recruiting, it seems that he still wants a physical running game which is antithetical to an actual Air Raid. I fully agree it’s likely we’ll see a dynamic passing game and I personally think they’ll be elements of an Air Raid. But Georgia is not going to wholesale switch to an Air Raid offense.
It’s funny Connor, but I don’t remember you keying in on what is actually the problem in Jortsville:
Sideshow Dan the Clown, the “offensive genius” has never scored more than 20 points against Kirby Smart as a head coach in TEN STRAIGHT LOSSES. And he only scored those 20 points once, with Dak as his QB.
So… as much as I love having Third and Granthem in Jortsville, and believe you me, I do love it, I love having MuLLLen’s particularly ineptness on offense there more.
Especially since our defense, which was No. 1 in the SEC last year, will only be better this year.
Soon he’ll be making up nicknames for our defensive coordinator… so idiotic
It’s “Turd and Grantham”.
Name-calling, the hobgoblin of simple minds.
I’m a simple-minded kind of guy anyway, so if the shoe fits…
Give this lecture to cojones West.
The difference, Dumbdawg, is that I am counter trolling and have a lot of catching up to do. That, and the fact that you guys are truly Morons.
By you guys I mean Corch, TDOW, Negan and those like you that come to their defense
“Name-calling, the hobgoblin of simple minds”
44-28
Grantham is getting better in my opinion. He just needs a year without all the injuries. Without Zuniga then Greenard was hobbled he still had a top 10.
I believe Grantham will become a much better DC if he can just learn to have a great defensive tackle, a star/OLB who can remember his coverage assignments and stay with a tight end, and edge rushers who don’t tweak their ankles.
Dexter can fill that role. Trey Dean was absent or just didn’t understand that role. I think Diabate could be a good star.
Exactly. Super excited about Dexter.
Nash, I still can’t figure out why so many ankle issues. Hopefully Savage has an answer this year in the S&C before the season.
I don’t think 2019 was the same as 2013 when 22 starters missed games. I think 2019 was just bad luck with a couple guys. And I wonder about Greenard’s durability; I think perceptions about that may be why he went 90th in the draft instead of the first two rounds.
Yeah he lost a season at Louisville due to injury too.
Time will tell G8rMarsh, you sound like me back in 2011 as I was so excited how Grantham had transformed our dee from horrible to 5th best in the nation and then…2012 regression to 32nd followed by 2013 45th…if I recall he had similar results at Louisville…25th to 31st. I’ve said it before, I like Grantham, always have, and I appreciate the attitude he tried to bring to my pups, but historically he regresses into predictability, this isn’t opinion, it’s fact. I don’t see where that’s going to change, even if Dan has brought him better talent recently, he had some serious talent in Athens but still regressed. With who y’all have coming in this year one thing will be certain, if there’s no improvement in big moments in big games this year, certainly it can’t be ol 3rd n Grantham. No way an elite coach like Dan could miss the signs…right? Those are mistakes only lesser coaches like Kubby n Coley would make…yes
You can’t base all of his abilities off of what happened in a 4-year period at UGA, especially when that was his first time as a college defensive coordinator. The man has never been at one job for longer than 3 years, other than UGA, for his entire career. That’s not long enough to make the claim that he’s the reason the defenses have regressed and claim it as a fact, especially at the college level where losing great players happens every year. It’s kind’ve funny though that the only people who make the claim that he sucks are Dawg fans. Everyone else seems to believe he’s a great DC, including people at the next level.
Where did I say he sucked? I said he doesn’t do very good adjusting in crucial games. However you should certainly be the first to ask yourself why is it he hasn’t been anywhere for an extended amount of time…
If I needed a respectable DC to come in and turn my woeful defensive program around Todd would certainly be on the short list, but once that corner was turned I would be looking for a a better one to take my program to the next level…hope that clears up your perception of this humper fan’s fake claims of toddsuckiness…
Curious though, who at the next level thinks he’s a great DC?
I believe I said “Dawg fans” claim he sucks. Not sure why you feel I was specifically referring to you. Must be your guilty conscience. You might want to read your comment I was responding to again. You didn’t say anything about not adjusting in crucial games. Your whole comment was about him regressing at every job he’s been at and how you don’t see that changing. You know basically saying he sucks without actually saying it. I don’t need to ask myself why he hasn’t been anywhere for an extended period of time. Maybe I would if he was getting fired, but he was just taking more money or better jobs each time. Can’t fault the guy for that. That’s what happens when you’re desired for what you do by the people who actually do the hiring. I’m guessing you missed it last year when the Bengals put the full court press on him?
Just clearing up that while you think Dawg fans claim he sucks, this Dawg fan doesn’t. He’s a top notch defensive program builder, highly motivational, awful recruiter. He’s tutored under some of the best, Dom, Wade, Mora…so he clearly knows defense…but his Achilles heel has always been being out maneuvered in tge crucial heat of moment decision war. Perhaps that changes this year, we’ll see. History is against it.
As for your 2nd point he indeed just takes more money, most definitely, this we agree…4 years at Uga, 3 raises or I leave for greener pastures, same deal at UL, so far 2 years at Uf with two large raises forced…so if y’all do improve more this year do you see him staying? Not a chance without forcing another huge salary increase. And If he regresses so what, the next offer is just around the corner…Todd is a perfect free market commodity…loyal only to the Franklins
I actually said more money or better jobs, and you’re wrong again. He took a pretty massive pay cut going from Louisville to MSU. $400,000 to be exact. Considering he’s one of the highest paid DC’s in the country, the only way he’ll get a pay raise now will be with a head coaching gig. So again can’t fault him for doing that and trying to better his career, as everyone else on the planet would do. So he’s ALWAYS being outmaneuvered huh? Kind’ve hard to win 21 games games and 2 New Years 6 bowls in 2 years if you’re ALWAYS being outmaneuvered don’t you think? He’ll get over the Georgia hump soon.
Ok I’ll give ya that Joe, ALWAYS outmaneuvered may have been a little harsh, let’s just say outmaneuvered in division and conference championship determining games routinely during his SEC career thus far.
Problem is Connor the gators D has been pretty good against UGA it’s the head coach that you and everybody else praise as this offensive guru he’s the one holding the gators back against UGA his offense can’t score more than 20 points But just overlook that fact keep talking about the defense until they score at least 28 points Mullen is never going to beat Kirby but hey this is the year right??I doubt it but you and the gators fans please keep your hopes alive we did lose the South Carolina last year so I guess anything is possible only difference is y’all won’t slip by the Dawgs like the Cocks.Pretty sure Mullen and the gators will have Kirby and the Dawgs full attention so if you do win it will be a well earned W
912 this comment makes no sense. According to you’re statement it seems you are on board with how coach CDM and a lot of Gators think. We were only 7 points away from a win.
If that’s the case, then surely you understand we will have a better offense this season.
I would like to see an Air Raid expert submit an all-inclusive feature describing what is and what is not the Air Raid offense.
I remember years ago, there was a debate over what was and what was not the old Split-T offense, and it came down to more than just line splits and the QB making his fakes and hand-offs at the line of scrimmage.
The same goes with the wishbone. Teams have lined up in what looks like a wishbone but did not run any wishbone plays. Were they in a wishbone or not?
To me in order to be a real Air Raid offense, these criteria must be met.
1. Line splits to the maximum, even up to 4 feet if linemen can still control their gaps. With the extra large splits, the linemen will align as deep as they can and still be legal.
2. Mostly 4 wide receivers but not mandatory.
3. A QB that most of the time lines up in a shotgun, but it isn’t mandatory.
4. Spreading the field both vertically and horizontally.
5. Most running plays outside the off-tackle gaps are replaced by quick passes behind the line of scrimmage up to 5 yards past the line.
6. A certain familiar type of pass routes, including the shallow cross, the mesh, the dig, the all verts, and others.
7. Players drilled over and over in how to settle in the open grass versus zone defense and to use the legal pick versus man to man defenses.
8. The pace of play is sped up and can at any time go no huddle.
9. Most of the running plays are designed to be 21st century play-action pass equivalents and rely on the defense concentrating on stopping short pass routes first.
10. Practices notoriously use every QB on the roster on most scrimmage plays. 5 QBs with 5 footballs throwing to 5 receivers gives every receiver a pass-catching rep on every play, and through rotation, allows every receiver a chance to be familiar with every QB that might play.
Just because a team passed 50 times in 70 plays, it does not make them air raid. And, there are run and shoot offensive philosophies that can apply to air raid and vice versa.
There are some air raid principles in most every offense used today–West Cost, Air Coryell, Erhardt-Perkins, etc.
Like the definition of the start of space at 100 kilometers, there needs to be a standard definition for what Air Raid is and isn’t. FWIW, I don’t agree with the Karman Line definition of space. I’ll go with 264,000 that the USAF uses, so that all the X-15 pilots deserved their astronaut wings.
The big three:
1. Four wide receivers and no tight end.
2. Wide offensive line splits to open up throwing lanes over the middle and increase the distance from edge rushers to the quarterback.
3. 65% or more of plays from scrimmage are pass plays.
…element 4…no huddle
LH61, I believe your criteria is absolutely correct, especially nos. 5-10. Air Raid is much more than a formation. It replaces the standard run game with quick strike passes that attack as much space as possible. Playbook is paired down and the focus is on massive repetition in practice so that there’s flawless execution in games; fewer plays run with razor-sharp accuracy. Routes are simple and quick (no long developing route trees) and neither the receivers or QB are making many post-snap reads (though in the era of RPOs this is obviously changing). This puts the ball in the hands of as many play makers as possible, which makes it difficult for defenses to just focus on one or two players.
Also, props for accurately identifying the run and shoot as well.
Ultimately, I do not believe Smart is going to trade a physical, dominant running game entirely for short, quick passes (which is a hallmark of the Air Raid). Though I do believe we’ll see many concepts applied for a hybrid, dynamic offense. Smart, also, has said very little about the offensive evolution and the only real details offered so far are that he’s not going to want to change too much on account of having a severely limited offseason.
Your offensive line splits statement is wrong. You can have 8 feet splits but can still only be 1 yard off the line of scrimmage. The length of the splits doesn’t change the rules of formation.