How should we define success for Emory Jones? Here's a realistic outlook for 2021
It’s inevitable, but in a perfect world, we’d all do Emory Jones a solid and not compare him to Kyle Trask or Tim Tebow.
Besides the fact that Jones doesn’t operate like either one, it doesn’t seem fair to lump him with a couple of guys who rewrote the record books at Florida with Dan Mullen at the controls. If Jones gets off to a comparable start to one of those Florida greats in his first 6 games, so be it. Let the side-by-side graphics loose if you must.
But if we’re talking about what sort of standard Jones has to live up to in order to be considered successful in 2021, both of those signal-callers should be stricken from the record. It’s pretty simple. Trask just led the No. 1 passing offense in America, and he led FBS in total touchdowns. Jones can aspire to do the same, but externally, that’s not really a bar we should set for him. He’s not throwing to the likes of Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes. That in itself makes this a bit of an apples to oranges comparison because it’s unlikely the offense will be built the way it was with Trask.
And sure, Jones might operate in more of Mullen’s prototypical offense like Tebow did, but 99.9999% (roughly) of first-time SEC starting quarterbacks don’t rack up 50 touchdowns and win a Heisman from the jump. You know, just in case that wasn’t obvious.
So what should success look like for Jones if Trask and Tebow aren’t fair comps? I’m glad you asked.
Beat Georgia
Let’s just get that out of the way.
It’s not necessarily what makes a successful Florida quarterback. Treon Harris and his 3-for-6, 27-yard passing performance in the 38-20 win in 2014 are proof of that. But is it important? Of course it is, especially during a time when beating Georgia usually means taking down a top-10 team and getting a signature win. Just because this prerequisite is obvious doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
At the same time, if Jones balls out and loses a 48-45 game, that won’t make him an unsuccessful quarterback. We know who’s getting the blame if that happens. (His last name starts with a “G” and ends with “rantham.”)
Top 4 in SEC in yards/attempt
Jones has to become a more efficient passer. That’s true no matter who you want to compare him to. You don’t get to the places Florida wants to go without having someone who can be accurate and stretch the field. In a limited sample size in 2020, Jones had 46.7% accuracy and 32.1% depth-adjusted accuracy (via @SEC_StatCat). That’s meant to show numbers regardless of the talent at the pass-catcher position.
In 2020, Jones averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and he completed 18-of-32 passes (56%). From an efficiency standpoint, Jones’ numbers were most comparable to Bo Nix. Granted, the former never got to start and make in-game adjustments while the latter did. Regardless, that’s the most obvious area where Jones needs to improve.
What does being in the top 4 in the SEC in that department usually entail? Here’s the look at the SEC quarterback who ranked No. 4 in yards/attempt in the Playoff era:
- 2014 — Bo Wallace (Ole Miss), 8.4
- 2015 — Jake Coker (Alabama), 7.9
- 2016 — Sean White (Auburn), 8.1
- 2017 — Danny Etling (LSU), 9.0
- 2018 — Jake Bentley (South Carolina), 8.2
- 2019 — Kyle Trask (Florida), 8.3
- 2020 — Feleipe Franks (Arkansas), 8.9
How fitting that Trask and Franks are the last 2 quarterbacks to finish No. 4 in the SEC in yards/attempt. A good benchmark for Jones’ efficiency would be right around that 8.4 yards/attempt range. That’s not asking for too much. That 2019 version of Trask with 8.3 yards per attempt got Florida a New Year’s 6 bowl victory. Combine that with what Jones should be able to do as a runner, and that’s going to set up Florida well.
Speaking of those running abilities …
Top 2 among SEC quarterbacks in rushing
Among SEC quarterbacks regardless of snap count in 2020, Jones owned the league’s top run grade (PFF). He averaged basically the same amount of yards as a runner (6.8) as he did as a passer (6.9). Again, it’s a small sample size (just 32 carries), but the early returns were promising:
Highest rushing grade from non-RBs last season:
1. Emory Jones, Florida – 86.1
2. Justin Fields, Ohio St – 84.3
3. Malik Willis, Liberty – 83.1 pic.twitter.com/6oN2GwWG5K— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) February 4, 2021
Does that mean we should expect Jones to be the top rushing quarterback in the nation? I wouldn’t rule it out, though I certainly wouldn’t bet on that. We’re coming off a year in which Mullen’s quarterback led the nation in pass attempts. Jones isn’t going to be treated like the far-less-mobile Trask, nor is he going to be treated like a far-less-capable passer like Nick Fitzgerald. Even if Jones throws with a frequency closer to Fitzgerald (26 attempts per game in 2 years as Mullen’s starter at MSU) than Trask (36 attempts per game in 2020), those attempts will still feel different because Jones will be asked to push the ball downfield more.
The designed runs? Those will be plentiful, as they should be.
These are the types of plays where Jones can really grind away at a defense:
“Everyone in the stadium knows what’s coming” Emory Jones scrambles for a 17 yard pickup pic.twitter.com/oOvWlJmKXl
— libgator (@lib_gator) December 31, 2019
It’s no secret that’ll be a bigger part of Mullen’s offense than it was the last 3 years. How many designed runs per game will Jones have? That remains to be seen. Game flow could dictate that. Florida now has the ability to imposing its will that way, which is different than the first 3 seasons of the Mullen era. Franks could capitalize on a weakness, but he didn’t make game-breaking plays with his legs like Jones can.
What would it take for Jones to finish in the top 2 in rushing among SEC quarterbacks, you ask? And why not the top 1?
Well, last year, Matt Corral led the way in the SEC with 506 rushing yards. That was good for No. 8 among Power 5 quarterbacks. He was well ahead of Terry Wilson and Bo Nix, who had 424 yards and 388 yards, respectively. Corral and Nix are back, and a full year of Luke Doty at South Carolina could make him a candidate, as well as presumed Texas A&M starter Haynes King.
But Jones, if he stays healthy, should be in that 600-700 yard range. Florida hasn’t had a quarterback run for 500 yards since, well, No. 15. Tebow also averaged around 200 carries per season as a starter, which (probably) won’t be how Jones is utilized with his frame.
If Jones were to finish in the top 2 in rushing yards among SEC quarterbacks, it would also probably be a sign that he didn’t take too many sacks. As ridiculous as it is that sacks taken count against a quarterback’s rushing yards in college, it is another indicator of efficiency, albeit a less direct one.
One thing that seems like a lock? Jones is going to give Florida a much more even split of pass-run production compared to last year’s nearly 3-1 split.
Top 25 offense
Florida finished inside the top 30 in scoring in each of Mullen’s first 3 seasons in Gainesville. That’s night and day compared to Jim McElwain’s 3 offenses that all finished No. 100 or worse.
Obviously, not all of this will be on Jones. If an offensive line with 3 returning starters struggles to run-block again, that doesn’t bode well, and if Florida’s new batch of starting pass-catchers plays like it did in the Cotton Bowl, an offensive regression is inevitable.
Perhaps that’s inevitable even if Florida doesn’t fall short in those areas. We’re talking about a group that ranks No. 125 among 127 FBS teams in percentage of returning offensive production. Jones is going to be surrounded by a bunch of unproven players, though that doesn’t mean he’s destined to struggle. That number could be an afterthought if Jones takes off with 5-star transfer Demarkcus Bowman, and it would help if former 5-star Penn State transfer Justin Shorter became a go-to target.
Last year, a scoring offense in the top 25 meant averaging 34 points per game. Florida could theoretically drop by nearly a touchdown per game and earn a better AP Top 25 finish than it did in 2020. That involves things like not being a defensive train wreck (most of the time), holding on to the football on a potential game-winning drive and above all else, it involves not throwing a shoe.
Sorry. Had to.
A legitimate argument for All-SEC at season’s end
At best, Jones could be a third-team All-SEC selection in the preseason, though I wouldn’t bank on that. Remember, that’s based on what we’ve already seen a player do. As I often say, Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t even one of the 3 preseason selections in 2018 after “2nd-and-26” happened. Jones shouldn’t beat out Corral or JT Daniels for a preseason honor, which almost always goes to returning starting quarterbacks.
Consider that my way of saying, no, don’t take it personally when Nix is wrongfully given the third-team All-SEC honor in the preseason.
What’s more important is who earns the award at season’s end. Trask was Florida’s first quarterback to earn All-SEC honors at season’s end since, well, No. 15. Again, Jones shouldn’t be evaluated under the premise that he needs to follow in either of their footsteps. But if we’re at least talking about Jones having an argument to be considered a top-2 SEC quarterback in December, it’s safe to say things have gone well for Florida.
Of the 22 All-SEC quarterbacks during the 2010s, 68% of them led teams that won at least 10 games. And the ones who didn’t were Johnny Manziel, Dak Prescott, Drew Lock, Aaron Murray, Josh Dobbs and Chad Kelly. Those guys were all successful SEC quarterbacks by any metric.
In a perfect world for Florida, Jones would instead join the 68%. Could he? Absolutely. He’s had 3 years to learn from one of the best offensive minds in the sport. The physical tools aren’t lacking, either. Becoming an elite SEC quarterback is easier said than done, though.
Jones path to success isn’t a given. But it’s definitely there.
Finally, it’s his time to embark.
I mean he wont be as good as Kyle trask ( who turned out to be Kyle trash with secondary’s) but he ought to do very well, cause this kid has got some talent that can really help Florida 2021 who i think will be more of a rushing team than they were last year.
I am really excited for him. I think he is going to make is own mark this year. His biggest challenge in a Mullen run offense is making the right reads pre-snap and progressing through the play. Felipe Franks had all the intagibles but could not make proper reads and progressions. Kyle Trask did not have all the skills but he was a machine at making reads and working his way through progressions. The difference between the two is clear. The other hurdle that Jones will face will be when to use his legs to make positive yardage on passing plays. I personally think it should be two progressions and if there is nothing, then take off. I am sure Dan Mullen is coaching the opposite which is take the check down and if it falls apart then use your athletic ability. Either way it is nice to have that option. As long he does not overthink and decides to be Emory Jones and not Kyle Trask or Tebow he is going to be fine. Gonna be a good year. I am glad defenses will now have to also focus on containing a running QB against us this year. Emory will hurt teams with his arm but will defeat teams legs on 3rd down and long IMO.
with his legs*
You make a great point about the reads and progressions. Pre-snap reads are very important for success in both the running and passing games. I hope he won’t be too quick to just tuck a run. I love the guys who can scramble to open up a big pass play. Hopefully, he and all the new starters can get in synch this spring.
Success for Jones this year is if he throws less picks than touchdowns. I don’t know if he can do it.
How do you define any player at Florida? Coach won’t be there for three years and neither will the players.
Weak Troll Job. Do not worry. The three stooges will be here soon to show you “the way,” of the troll. Like hanger on’s in a bar at closing time, when the bartender just wants to go home. The song and dance is sad.
Nice prediction, so far 2 of the 3 have complied
Its just a Shame Arik Gilbert left Because i think he would have worked great with Emory
Gilbert has all the markings of a problem child in progress. Too much drama potential. Our TE room is more then well stocked w/o Arik. No worries.
At least at Florida, when we realize we made a mistake in a coaching hire and ended up with a Muschamp or a MclWain, we don’t keep them around for 15 straight seasons.
I see a Nick Marshall like QB (great athlete, marginal at best passer) playing in system that is something less than what Malzahn put on the field.
The only flaw that Emory Jones has that could really, mess us up is passing cause he aint really a threat when it comes to passing which he will need to work on a lot
LOL. How can we define success for Emory Jones?
Can he complete 50% of his passes? (Likely, but barely)
Can he finish the season as Floriduh’s starter? (Not likely… Richardson is better)
Corch…I agree with you. From what I’ve seen from Emory…His 2021 season will go as far as his legs can carry him. I am not sure he can beat out Richardson(much better passer). Lots of offensive weapons are
gone from Florida’s 2020 team. Time will tell.
I’m inclined to agree with you both. I’m excited to see what Jones can do, but primarily because he’s done what you hope highly ranked QBs will do; sit, watch, learn, and take their chance when they have it. I think Richardson is the future. But in a season with lost production and the stress of maintaining the W/L record Mullen has built the past three years, he will probably opt to go with the asset he knows he has in Jones.
One hope is, last year, everyone thought they had Trask pegged, and he blew expectations out of the water. We can hope that Jones is underestimated as well (not to say he’ll be a Heisman contender, but that he’ll outperform his “ceiling”)
I like Richardson too but Emory has spring and fall pre-season practices to get even more comfortable with the system and his receivers. He will make any defense crazy with his running speed, elusiveness and the natural broken field play-making skills he brings (who does that remind you of?). Tebow wasn’t a great passer but because he could make the coverage stop and watch during play action his receivers got the extra step(s) of separation they needed to adjust to the off target passes he threw. That’s what I expect will happen with Emory. Contrary to what the naysayers predict, Florida has a lot of quality passing targets (TEs, WRs and RBs out of the backfield) who will make life Hell for any opponent’s LBs and secondary. We have too many offensive positives to be concerned about that side of the team. With a little defensive improvement I predict another 44-28ish result in Jax this year.
I’m not sure Kyle Trask would have such a good year last year without Pitts, Toney, and Grimes to throw to.
Curious to see what CDM has up his sleeve with Jones and how the Gators are gonna score points.
I mean ya never know what is gonna happen cause Florida does have a kinda rough season for a rebuild team cause their offense is pretty much just gone compared to last year, but defense might be better.
Did anyone foresee Pitts doing what Pitts did …or Toney doing what Toney did? Maybe they ALL elevated each other.
Emory will do just fine in Mullen’s system to the surprise and chagrin of all his detractors..
Funny Connor talking about whether Emory would be top 3 in the preseason.
Hey man we don’t care about the pre season, that is the property of the Georgia Morons. In the 2020 preseason Trask was obviously the top returning SEC QB and yet Jamie Newman, the Georgia legend, was named first team all SEC QB ahead of him. We all know how that worked out.
This pre season Matt Corral is obviously the top returning SEC QB yet some are giving the nod to Daniels, same sheet different preseason. Morons never learn
Man, you’ve been real quiet for months. It’s been nice.
Where ya been? What happened, did you lose a shoe?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Moe-ron got run-over that Boomer Sooner wagon, wagon wheel marks down he is back and horse sh*t on his face
44 – 28
UGA:
2020 SECE Co-Champions
#7 in Final Season Polls
Even when we lose to the turds, we still beat the turds!!!!
Man it’s always a treat when the top 2 founding members of the Moron Triumvirate commiserate with each other in a Gator article
Where were the co-champions playing when we put the fear of God into the future National Champions in the SEC Championship game? Oh yea, trying to play Vandy in a make up game. Cool. Oh, and “National Champions,” is a phrase given to the best college football team in the Nation. You would not understand.
Best season at Florida in 12 years still sees them lose FOUR GAMES and finish ranked behind Georgia.
If we’re gonna have a down year in Athens, I’ll take it knowing the ‘turds have to be happy with their warm bowl of nice warm s–t. Hah!
Keepin it classy in Athen’s! Atta boy, live up to your reputation. The weird and sad obessesion with our football program continues for the trolls of UGA.
Athens*
“UGA:
2020 SECE Co-Champions
#7 in Final Season Polls
Even when we lose to the turds, we still beat the turds!!!!”
What a dumba$$… UGA wasn’t co champions… Florida was 8-2 while UGA was 7-2..
“Where were the co-champions playing when we put the fear of God into the future National Champions in the SEC Championship game? “
LMAO… 4 loss Florida didn’t scare anyone.. The East was weak.
@Bamatime, your insecurity shows just as much as the UGA trolls on this site. People view you in the same vein as these clowns. You are contrarian and obstinate. Keep acting like you weren’t afraid y’all were gonna lose that game. Everyone knows the truth.
LMAO.. Now you speak for everyone? Dude just STFU.. You don’t know how people feel. You’re here crying like a little b!tch replying to every UGA fan that isn’t hyping up that $hit Florida team…
Florida wasn’t winning that game and it was never in doubt…
Your comment further proves my point. Thank you.
The fact you came back just proves mine…
Pre-Season Natty-lights all around…
At this time of the year every SEC team is undefeated…even Vandy & south Carolina.
So that’s your reply to my factual post, just some gibberish
Daniel’s will lead the SEC in interceptions…
I’m in for a Franklin to be donated to winners choice of charity, scared?
Haha Humper. Less scared and more poor. I was not saying that to simply troll the trollers though. I think if UGA gets pass heavy and tries to be something they are not, then Daniels will feel pressure and force the ball. He was certainly known for that at his previous school. I do not think it is an outlandish statement.
I hear you 2Bitz, but he was a early high school graduating true freshman back then as well. All I have is his body of work since he’s been at HumperU…did you know in 4 games JT threw the ball 119 times with 10 TDs and 2 Ints? The Humpers ran the ball 138 times in those same 4 games. Prior to JT taking over they ran the ball at a 2.5 to 1 clip. In the two games that JT played in where the pups ran the ball (43 passes vs 91 runs)twice as much as they passed (because of USC and MIZZ blowouts) JT threw 5 TDs to 1 Int. In the two nailbiters against MS St and Cincy that JT played in he passed 76 times to only 47 runs and yet he still threw for 5 TDs vs 1 Int…
I can’t defend what he is known for but I do know this, first Nash and now you have thrown out that JT will lead in Ints scenario but neither of you have accepted my offer of betting for charity. Perhaps these stats I mentioned you both already know about…sure thoguth Iwas going to get at least one sucker bet (:
Stay well 2Bitz…always a pleasure.
Nice stats. Interesting. Time will tell. If it makes you feel better I have never bet on anything in my life. Always been to cheap.
LOL, if you were a Humper fan I’d swear you were my Brother n law…only one difference, he’ll bet, he just won’t pay…
I never said Daniels would “lead” in INTs, whatever that means. I said only that I expect him to give the ball to the other team a lot. Fumbles too.
In fairness no you didn’t explicitly say JT would “lead” in INTs, what you explicitly said was
“I wonder what the over/under is on Daniels’ interception total next year. Whatever it is, I’ll take the over” … too which I offered up a bet for a Benjamin with the loser donating to the charity of the winner’s choice…that bet is still on the table btw. I’m sure we can find a Vegas line on O/U INTs…besides Golden Harvest could use the money…still scared?
A friend of mine has a buddy who is a coach with the Baltimore Raven’s.he told me they can’t wait to see Emory play.He think’s Emory will be slot better passer than everybody thinks he will be.He also mentioned the guy has a arm and the way the ball comes off of his hand. he was joking with me because he knows I’m a UGA fan and said don’t you remember he threw a 40 yard rope down the sideline for a completion in either the 2018 or 2019 in the FLA GA game. He seems to think Emory is going to give some team’s problems with his arm and legs.
What, you think some NFL dude knows more than corch or Dumbs
Funny you say that about the action as the ball moves from his hand. It is really crazy how tight the spiral is on throws were he rips it, however he seems really uncomfortable on short touch throws. There is a lot of unknown because of lack of reps to give an accurate assessment but a fan can only hope for the best. I think the ability is there for sure. He just has to make the right reads…
dude is that your imaginary friends buddy?
Well of course Emory is going to give some teams problems Dawgtime…FAU, South Fla, Samford. We’ll find out what Emory is all about in game 3, that is IF he beats out Richardson.
Refreshing to hear something from a rival fan that isn’t baseless insults. I am higher on Emory going into this year than I was on Trask going into last year. I hope my expectations are exceeded again.
Emory’s legs are an asset…but his arm is a liability on any pass other than the short stuff.
AFan you got that completely backwards, Emory is supposed to have trouble with the short stuff
Noted.
The only reason Corral and Daniels have/will run is when/if their pass blocking fails. Emory will run by design.
Just win, baby. That’s the bottom line. It’s the only stat that really matters, and to that end a big one for Jones or anyone is– protect the football. Turnovers are destroyers, and all those other stats don’t mean a thing if you can’t protect the football.
Dude the only thing worse than georgia will be in 2021 is Jt Daniels Facial hairs
aka what is supposed to be a mustache but is really a pile of sh*t on his face
um out best season was 11-2
JT kinda reminds me of Stephen Garcia(former Gamecock QB)….concerning that facial-hair.
Exactly. Points are points, doesn’t matter if they come by QB runs, handoffs, short passes or long passes. Just score more than the other team.
Emory has been at UF for 3 years. The loss of some star receivers will be rough, but I think we still have enough talent at OL, RB, TE and Rec to be balanced and effective.
He’s got quite a trask ahead of him.
Nice article for a change for SDS on Florida, although the author threw in the usual negative slaps at the UF program. Then you read the comments section and you realize that the low level of conversion just gets more and more juvenile…and downright stupid.
Georgia always wins the preseason. I like winning the regular season. I really like the talent and depth on this year’s UF football roster. And that includes Jones and Richardson.
True…True
You have to wonder though he has just seen one of the best qb that Florida will see for a long time to come, i wonder if being with Trask for so long if he might have learned some tricks
@Bamatime, your insecurity shows just as much as the UGA trolls. Keep acting like you weren’t afraid y’all were gonna lose that game.
You want to see insecurity? Look at all your crying a$$ posts to UGA fans… You cry like a b!tch with hurt feeling because of comments made by the big bad UGA fans..
He’s got to stay healthy. He’s shown he like running ball up between the tackles and he’s pretty slippery, and finishes with power. I’d hope he knows when to get down.
Of course he will have prove he can hit those soft touch dump off passes while he’s on the move(something that Felipe struggled with still while at Arkansas even). It’s tough for a guy with a “cannon arm” to make those throws where you have to take something off them. It’s like shooting basketball right after lifting weights. Can he do it? He’s got the right coach if he’s got any shot.
The UGA game? No idea what that will look like… if you rewatch last years game, you will see Georgia wideouts getting behind Florida’s defense consistently but UGAs QBs were off target. Conversely, Trask carried out many ball fakes where UGA defenders completely ignored him, especially fakes to the boundaries.
Feather in the cap: Mullen will get the best out of Emory. Mullens history as coordinator and head coach have shown that many times players look their best under his tutelage and often timed never look as good after separating, whether because he left or they moved on…
Florida’s 2021 offense should resemble the one Dan Mullen ran at Mississippi State with Dak Prescott at the helm of the offense. More runs than the past 3 years “If” that offensive line actually learns how-to-block.
Gilbert has all the markings of a problem child in progress. Too much drama potential. Our TE room is more then well stocked w/o Arik. No worries.