So far, I don’t know how many skeptics that Billy Napier converted into believers.

When you go 6-7 and lose to teams without historical success like Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Oregon State, it’s not exactly the quickest path to convincing the masses that better days are ahead. Not at Florida. Not at the place that, until last year, hadn’t suffered consecutive losing seasons since the Jimmy Carter administration.

Napier might’ve had some temporary conversions with last year’s thrilling season-opening win against Playoff-hopeful Utah, but that turned out to be the high point of the season. So far, that was the high point of Napier’s approval rating. Landing Graham Mertz from the transfer portal didn’t boost that, and neither did losing a defensive coordinator after a lackluster Year 1.

It’s ironic that so far, Napier mostly did what he was brought in to fix — recruiting. The Gators have the No. 3 class in 2024. That’s not lost on the Napier believers. Ask anyone in that crowd why they’re sold on Napier being Florida’s first post-Steve Spurrier coach to last more than 6 years and they’ll point directly to that.

For now, though, let’s point to Thursday night’s opener at Utah — the best opportunity Napier has had to turn skeptics into believers.

Yes, the health of Utah quarterback Cam Rising will determine how that matchup will be viewed. Even though he didn’t beat Florida last year in Gainesville, he’s never lost at home. Utah’s most recent home loss was in 2020, but because of COVID, that game didn’t have any fans. The last time that Kyle Whittingham’s program lost at home in front of fans was 2018.

There’s a reason even with Rising’s status uncertain, Utah is still a touchdown favorite. It ain’t just the mountain air, either. It’s because the 2-time defending Pac-12 champs accounted for 6 of the 22 preseason first-team all-conference selections, which didn’t even include Rising.

That preseason nod to Utah is also because Florida is loaded with question marks. The Gators’ biggest strength is the playmaking duo of running backs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne, yet there’s skepticism about them operating behind 1 returning starter on the offensive line, Kingsley Eguakun … who is also questionable to play Thursday night. They could also see plenty of loaded fronts against a Florida passing game that isn’t expected to set the world on fire.

Napier said that Florida evaluated 20 transfer portal quarterbacks and chose Mertz, who had a disappointing 3 years at Wisconsin.

Napier didn’t say those 3 years at Wisconsin were disappointing. That was just me. To be fair, I had higher hopes for the 2019 U.S. Army All-American. So did Wisconsin fans. During his 3 years as a starter, his QB rating finished from 94-101 against teams who were in the final AP Top 25. Napier’s faith in Mertz is his way of saying, “I know something that you all don’t.”

OK. Show us.

Show us that Mertz won’t have 36-minute stretches without a completion like his predecessor, who shook off completely pedestrian passing numbers en route to being the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Show us that Mertz can go on the road and win in a hostile atmosphere. Show us that Florida’s offense actually has an identity and that it’ll be able to maximize that incoming talent.

Napier has to start checking these boxes, though not because his job is in imminent danger. Last I checked, paying a $31 million buyout is unprecedented in the history of the sport. If Scott Stricklin — less than 2 years removed from investing roughly $60 million into him and his beefed up support staff — loses faith in Napier, it won’t be because he goes 6-6 again. It would take much more than that (an off-field issue, a fake death threat, a credit card scandal, an NCAA show-cause or 2, etc.).

At the same time, the nation will be watching Napier on Thursday night. They’ll be watching a team with lower preseason expectations than any Florida squad since Spurrier returned home to coach his alma mater in 1990. If you disagree with that, remember that this is only the 6th time since after Spurrier’s first season that Florida started unranked in the AP Poll. The regular season over/under is 5.5 wins. That’s it.

The skeptics outweigh the believers, and it’s not close.

For now, Napier can use that as fuel internally. Sooner or later, though, those conversions matter externally. It isn’t about getting a media member to pick you to win a game. It’s about continuing to recruit at an elite level and selling the fans that you hope will soon fill that $400 million renovated stadium.

That could be largely tied to the all-important area that needs to turn around, perhaps beginning on Thursday night. Go figure it’s what Napier’s predecessor did as well as anyone in the sport — play-calling. As the number of head coaches who handle primary play-calling duties dwindles in the SEC, Napier is the last of a dying breed. Anthony Richardson’s best moments — the jump fake against Utah and the LSU run — came on plays that broke down. Napier is still trying to show that he can juggle SEC head coaching duties with play-calling duties.

“I like having my hand on the scripts, the installation, that process. I think I can help establish our identity and personality as a team through that process,” Napier said at SEC Media Days in July. “And I’m always — I think if you get too far away from that, I think there could be some things from a sustainable, repeatable part. So I want to continue to do it, and I think each year, much like all parts of what we do, we’ll continue to evaluate.”

Let me translate the coachspeak: He’s firing himself as Florida’s primary play-caller if the offense doesn’t improve this year.

What remains to be seen is what’s considered legitimate improvement. One could argue that beating Utah this time — no matter who starts at quarterback for the Utes — could be the first sign of that because of how difficult it’s been for anyone to win in Salt Lake City. If Napier’s off-the-radar defensive coordinator hire Austin Armstrong dials up pressures that baffle this loaded Utah offensive line, well, that’d also be an ideal way to kick off Year 2.

There’s a quiet confidence among Napier and Florida players. Eguakun said that there were some “sour apples” in the group last year and it affected how other guys went about their business.

“Everybody’s bought in,” Florida defensive back Jason Marshall Jr. said in July. “It’s going to be a big change.”

OK. Show us.