Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Florida. We’ll stay with the SEC East all week. Last week, we predicted every game for every SEC West team.

Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | LSU | Mississippi State | Ole Miss | Texas A&M

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If you had told Florida fans that they’d open the Billy Napier era with a win against Utah and that the year would close with Anthony Richardson becoming the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, there are 4 words that would’ve been everywhere in Gainesville.

“In Napier we trust.”

Of course, the bookends of Florida’s season didn’t tell the full story. The Utah win was the high point of a season in which Richardson’s performance didn’t reflect his eventual-NFL Draft selection. The Gators only beat 1 other team with a winning record, and it was a 6-7 season that ended with a depleted roster getting smashed by Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl.

As Year 2 of the Napier era begins, 4 other words seem a bit more appropriate to describe the state of the Gators.

“The honeymoon is over.”

Napier had to replace his defensive coordinator, his starting quarterback, nearly that entire starting offensive line and more. Florida doesn’t rank in the 100 in percentage of returning production, and fresh off consecutive losing seasons for the first time since the Jimmy Carter administration, expectations are as low as they’ve been in decades.

Is that justified? Or will Napier’s patience yield a significant improvement in Year 2?

Let’s peak into Florida’s 2023 Crystal Ball:

Graham Mertz is QB1, which means what, exactly?

Napier said that Florida evaluated 20 transfer portal quarterbacks, and Mertz was the guy he wanted. The former U.S. Army All-American Bowl MVP never lived up to his high billing during his 3 seasons as Wisconsin’s starter. How much of that was the run-heavy system and how much of that was on Mertz not developing as a player? We’ll find out soon enough.

Mertz’s arrival was a bit of a surprise considering that more decorated quarterbacks like Sam Hartman, Devin Leary and Grayson McCall all entered the portal (McCall returned to Coastal Carolina). Not so surprising was that Mertz was named the starter in the middle of fall camp. It was either Mertz or Jack Miller, who probably didn’t help his case with a touchdown-less showing in the bowl game.

So now, Mertz is tasked with turning around a passing offense that ranked:

  • No. 114 in FBS in completion percentage
  • No. 80 in FBS in passing TDs
  • No. 77 in FBS in yards/game
  • No. 70 in FBS in QB rating

The good news for Mertz is that he’ll have Ricky Pearsall to throw to. The former Arizona State transfer emerged as a go-to weapon for the inconsistent Richardson. He’ll also hand the ball off to the elite backfield duo of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne (more on them in a minute).

The bad news for Mertz is that he struggled immensely against teams that finished in the AP Top 25 — he had a sub-100 QB rating in those matchups the past 3 seasons — and he averaged an interception once every 29.7 pass attempts. Of his 773 career pass attempts, only 11 were 40-yard completions.

Napier’s faith in Mertz after a rather lackluster start to his career will have a major say in Florida’s 2023 arc.

Does Florida have SEC’s best 1-2 punch at RB?

It’s a fair question. For all the frustration that Year 1 of the Napier era produced, newcomers Johnson and Etienne were a major bright spot.

(Well, unless you were like me and frustrated that Etienne only finished the season by averaging 9 carries per game … but I digress.)

Combined, Johnson and Etienne racked up 1,560 rushing yards and 16 rushing scores. That’s almost identical to the production of Ole Miss freshman sensation Quinshon Judkins. Florida’s backs were excellent, though game-flow probably limited their involvement at times. It’s hard to imagine a world in which that won’t be the case again in 2023.

The challenge will be figuring out if that inexperienced offensive line, which returns just 1 starter, can produce an even better version of Florida’s prolific duo. Teams will likely load the box and dare Mertz to beat them. That could make for some tough sledding, at least until Florida’s passing game establishes a couple downfield threats.

Still, though. Johnson and Etienne will be the backbone of Napier’s offense in 2023.

The Austin Armstrong experiment

It’s not every day that you see a 20-something defensive coordinator at the Power 5 level. After Patrick Toney’s surprising departure in late-February, Napier called on Armstrong to help Florida avoid another disastrous defensive season.

In 2022, the Gators ranked:

  • No. 83 in FBS in passing defense
  • No. 87 in FBS in scoring
  • No. 99 in FBS in yards/pass allowed
  • No. 100 in FBS against the run
  • No. 103 in FBS in yards/play allowed
  • No. 115 in FBS in rushing TDs allowed
  • No. 129 in FBS in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed

That’s not great.

Can the fiery, young defensive coordinator continue his meteoric rise in the coaching world by leading the Gators back to respectability? That remains to be seen. Above all else, Florida needs to turn around that disastrous opponent 3rd-down conversion percentage. Colorado and South Florida were the only FBS defenses who were worse on 3rd down than the Gators.

Fortunately, Florida returns the promising Princely Umanmielen and run-stuffing defensive tackle Desmond Watson. Unfortunately, the ageless Ventrell Miller is gone and there are questions galore at linebacker.

Florida’s turnaround is predicated on Armstrong giving the Gators something it hasn’t had since 2019 — a reliable defense.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: at Utah (L)

I’m assuming that even though he hasn’t been cleared as of this writing, Cam Rising will play in the opener. If not, this pick could change, but it’s worth remembering that Utah’s last home loss came in 2020. That, however, was without fans because of the pandemic. Before that? September 2018. The Utes are absolutely loaded on that offensive line and with 8 months to prep, something tells me Kyle Whittingham’s team will have a little revenge on its mind after last year’s thriller in Gainesville.

Week 2: vs. McNeese (W)

Unlike the opener, Mertz gets his legs under him a bit. He throws 3 touchdown passes in the first half to fuel a blowout win to get the Gators on the board in 2023.

Week 3: vs. Tennessee (W)

It’s been 20 years since Tennessee won in Gainesville. Twenty. Yes, this should be the most lopsided the rivalry has been in Tennessee’s favor during that stretch. No, that doesn’t guarantee that the Vols finally get it done in The Swamp. My thinking? This is the game in which Napier’s hire of Armstrong looks like a godsend. Instead of the Vols pushing Florida around in their own building, a pair of Joe Milton overthrows turn into interceptions that set up Gators touchdown drives. The Vols’ lack of defensive discipline proves costly and Etienne runs for 150. Tennessee’s losing streak in The Swamp officially passes the 2-decade mark.

Week 4: vs. Charlotte (W)

Are those … good late-September vibes in Gainesville? Indeed they are. Napier’s crown jewel of his 2022 class, Kamari Wilson, produces the highlight of the day with a pick-6 that has The Swamp buzzing.

Week 5: at Kentucky (L)

Kentucky has the upper hand on Florida now. I know. That seems wild considering many of us are old enough to remember when the Florida winning streak was 31 years old. After winning 3 of the past 5, Kentucky adds another to the win column behind a huge day from wideouts Dane Key and Barion Brown. Key, just as he did last year on that long pass from Will Levis, is on the receiving end of another long touchdown. Against a disciplined defense on the road, Mertz reverts to the player who couldn’t string together scoring drives at Utah. Kentucky makes it 3 in a row against Florida for the first time since the Bear Bryant era.

Week 6: vs. Vanderbilt (W)

Revenge game? Absolutely. Instead of abandoning the running game like he did last year in Nashville, Napier sticks with it. That does the heavy lifting until Andy Dean busts loose on a play-action pass over the top for a key second-half score to give Florida enough breathing room. A strip sack of AJ Swann ends Vandy’s 4th-quarter comeback attempt and the Gators grind out a 27-17 win.

Week 7: at South Carolina (L)

Remember that time Florida beat South Carolina 38-6 in mid-November and there was no doubt about who the better football team was? Well, the Gators responded by losing at Vandy, at Florida State and to Oregon State while the Gamecocks beat 2 top-10 teams and played Notre Dame down to the wire in a bowl game. Weird. Not so weird? The idea that Spencer Rattler moves past last year’s dud in Gainesville with a brilliant showing. Armstrong’s pressure packages backfire and South Carolina takes advantage of matchups on the outside. A 31-14 South Carolina victory totally flips the script.

Week 8: Bye

Week 9: vs. Georgia in Jacksonville (L)

“Overwhelmed” will be the mood of the Florida offense by day’s end. Mertz can’t handle the variety of ways Kirby Smart’s defense disguises pressure. Jamon Dumas-Johnson and Mykel Williams take turns blowing up plays in the backfield. After Florida scores on its first drive of the day on a 60-yard Etienne score, Georgia closes with 35 consecutive points. The long awaited RaRa Thomas breakout game comes, as does yet another absurd Brock Bowers touchdown. Carson Beck’s Heisman Trophy campaign picks up some more momentum in a dominant showing in Jacksonville.

Week 10: vs. Arkansas (W)

This has the makings of a big Pearsall day. I’m not sure that Arkansas and its transfer-heavy secondary will have an answer for Florida’s talented receiver. Arkansas jumps out to a fast start against a Florida squad that looks a bit fatigued coming off the Georgia game, but Armstrong’s adjustments prove to be the difference. The Hogs have to wait another week to clinch bowl eligibility, and Florida gets a much-needed bounce-back win.

Week 11: at LSU (L)

Call it an Alabama hangover, but LSU gets off to a disastrous start. With Garrett Nussmeier behind center for the injured Jayden Daniels, Armstrong dials up pressure and forces the young signal-caller into multiple first-half mistakes. The Tigers go into the locker room staring at a surprising deficit … only to come out and drop the hammer in the second half. A Major Burns pick-6 of Mertz sparks 21 consecutive points and helps LSU avoid disaster. Five straight victories against Florida marks the Tigers’ longest winning streak in the rivalry.

Week 12: at Mizzou (L)

A pair of 5-win teams battling for bowl eligibility deliver a uniquely entertaining but low-scoring affair. Armstrong and Mizzou defensive coordinator Blake Baker pull out all the stops on a frigid day that only produces 3 touchdowns. With Florida clinging to a 10-7 lead in the 4th quarter, Napier opts not to settle for the field position game. A 3rd-and-long pass by Mertz is tipped at the line of scrimmage and picked off by Kris Abrams-Draine. That sets up a Cody Shrader touchdown and ultimately gives Mizzou a postseason clinching victory.

Week 13: vs. Florida State (W)

How’s this for a way to earn bowl eligibility — FSU rolls into The Swamp with 1 loss and Playoff hopes on the line … only to lay an absolute egg in Gainesville. The Seminoles have no answer for the Florida ground attack, which kept the Gators alive in Tallahassee last year despite a 36-minute stretch without a completed pass. Florida State gets accused of looking ahead to the ACC Championship rematch against Clemson while Napier celebrates what’s easily his biggest victory to date.

2023 projection: 6-6 (3-5), 6th in SEC East

#GoGators

Perspective is everything.

On the surface, another 6-6 season won’t have anyone thinking that Florida is about to start competing for SEC titles. At the same time, if a season that begins with historically low expectations ends with wins against Tennessee and a Playoff-hopeful Florida State, there’ll be a glimmer of hope for Napier. Maybe a win No. 7 in a bowl game coupled with a middle-of-the-pack Mertz returning for another season changes the vibe.

Win a couple games you aren’t supposed to, show that your off-the-radar defensive coordinator hire is worth keeping around and establish some sort of passing game identity. Napier could check all 3 boxes and then return a ton of production from the 2023 roster to take on that 2024 gauntlet.

Of course, this is Florida. This is still the school that has had 6 coaches in the post-Steve Spurrier era. A 6-6 record won’t be celebrated so much as it’ll be tolerated.

Better days are ahead in Gainesville. How much better? That’ll be in the eye of the beholder.