Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with LSU. We’ll stay with the SEC West all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every SEC East team.

Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn

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Wrong. Dead wrong.

Last year, I said in this very crystal ball column that LSU would go 7-5 overall and 3-5 in the SEC.

Yeah. About that.

But wait! It gets even worse!

Not only was I horribly wrong about the eventual SEC West champs, my game-by-game prediction itself was much more alarming. Of LSU’s 12 regular-season games, I accurately predicted the result just 4 times. Mind you, 3 of the 4 games I accurately predicted were non-Power 5 games.

So yes, I was dead wrong on what LSU would be in Year 1 of the Brian Kelly era. I loved his transfer portal efforts and thought that the floor was significantly elevated. What I failed to recognize was that he’d make it work with true freshmen tackles, his starting quarterback would improve significantly by season’s end and a true freshman would emerge as one of the nation’s top players.

Now, though, expectations are much higher. LSU is coming off a West title and it’ll enter 2023 trying to repeat as division champs for the first time since divisions became a thing. A preseason top-10 ranking has LSU thinking Playoff and perhaps more.

What awaits in Year 2 of the Kelly era?

Is there a better QB situation in America than LSU’s?

Think about this before you tell me I’m stupid.

Do I believe Jayden Daniels is worthy of being a preseason top-3 guy in the Heisman Trophy odds? I don’t. His upside doesn’t lend itself to that type of 45-touchdown season, despite the fact that he’s going to rack up a ton of rushing touchdowns and he has an elite group of pass-catchers to work with coming back in Year 2 of the Mike Denbrock offense.

But do I believe that Daniels is 1 of the 10 best quarterbacks in college football? Absolutely. His improvement down the stretch was a huge reason LSU didn’t spiral into a 7-5 season after the Tennessee loss. Daniels learned to trust the offense and put more faith in his receivers. He still led FBS quarterbacks in rushing attempts, but if you watched Daniels, you saw someone who was more willing to let his guy go up and make a play.

LSU has a 5th-year starting quarterback in Daniels — you can thank COVID for that — and Garrett Nussmeier, AKA the guy who threw for 294 yards in the second half of the SEC Championship against Georgia. As in, 15-0 Georgia that had the No. 5 scoring defense in America. You really can’t ask for a better insurance policy than that.

And I know, losing Walker Howard to the transfer portal was a brutal blow. After 2023, both Daniels and Nussmeier are NFL Draft-eligible. It would’ve been nice for Kelly to have Howard developing in that room, but hey, that’s life in the transfer portal era.

The good news for LSU is that it has 2 guys who should be poised to maximize the explosive talent of this receiver room.

Round 2 of the Harold Perkins experience will have a much different feel

Expectations are sky-high for Perkins. When you play at the level that he did as a true freshman, that comes with the territory. The only SEC player with more tackles for loss than Perkins in 2022 was Will Anderson.

The expectation is that he’ll be playing more of a traditional linebacker role, and that it won’t be exclusive to rushing and spying the quarterback. It makes sense. Ideally, Perkins is flying around making plays everywhere and he helps LSU stuff the run. However, if that move results in a couple of invisible games in a row, you can bet it’ll be a talking point.

The past 2 LSU true freshmen defensive players who took off were Derek Stingley and Eli Ricks. Both, however, never got back to that level. Unlike those 2, Perkins doesn’t have a scheme change post-Year 1. His speed and instincts to get into the backfield are already on such an extraordinary level that one would think he’ll thrive no matter where he lines up.

Of course, he’ll be at the top of every opposing scouting report in 2023. How he handles that remains to be seen. And even if it helps free up other LSU defenders, some will use that as a knock that Perkins is regression.

Speaking of other LSU defenders …

Maason Smith’s emergence is ___________.

“Inevitable.”

Now that he’s back healthy after the torn ACL he suffered in last year’s season-opener, there’s an expectation that Smith is ready for takeoff. Two different coaching staffs at LSU talked about the explosive ability of the former 5-star recruit. Can he be the second coming of Jalen Carter?

What’ll be interesting is seeing not just how Smith handles the 1-on-1 matchups and disrupts the backfield, but also what it does for fellow front 7 guys. Will the aforementioned Perkins, third-team All-American Mekhi Wingo, experienced Texas transfer Ovie Oghoufo and incoming All-Pac-12 linebacker Omar Speights explode with Smith warranting so much attention? It feels likely.

Smith could be the difference in LSU winning an SEC title. That might seem like a stretch for someone with less than half a season’s worth of career starts, but all signs point to Smith making that kind of impact on LSU’s defensive line.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Florida State in Orlando (L)

Yes, LSU is vastly improved since that Sunday night slopfest in New Orleans last year. Perkins barely played, Smith got hurt and Daniels was a shell of himself. So why won’t LSU avenge last year’s loss? Because not only did FSU also improve greatly over the course of 2022, but look what it returned. The Seminoles rank No. 1 in America in percentage of returning production, which is extremely rare for a 10-win Power 5 team. A team already loaded with weapons added Michigan State leading receiver Keon Coleman and the versatile Jaheim Bell from South Carolina. Jordan Travis’ ability to pick apart the LSU secondary without scrambling proves to be too much to overcome. LSU falls in another down-to-the-wire thriller.

Week 2: vs. Grambling State (W)

This is all about Garrett Nussmeier. Hopefully Kelly lets him sling it. Ah, who are we kidding. Of course he’ll sling it.

Week 3: at Mississippi State (W)

Prior to 2022, the road team had won 3 straight in this matchup. That streak ended last year only because LSU overcame a 4th-quarter deficit. But this is where we really see LSU’s loaded group of pass-catchers take flight. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. take turns scoring touchdowns on a Bulldogs secondary still searching for its Emmanuel Forbes replacement as that ball-hawking corner. LSU pulls out a gritty road win to spoil Zach Arnett’s SEC debut.

Week 4: vs. Arkansas (W)

All the good vibes about the new Arkansas offense come to a screeching halt in Baton Rouge. It’s a rare instance in which the Hogs don’t have that interior offensive line advantage against LSU’s loaded front 7. Perkins owns the state of Arkansas after last year’s “flu game.” The question is if Smith will split ownership this time. LSU controls the line of scrimmage on both sides and takes advantage of the Hogs’ revamped secondary with that loaded group of pass-catchers.

Week 5: at Ole Miss (L)

Huh? How is preseason darling LSU going to stub its toe in Oxford? Isn’t LSU the better team? Yes. But here’s the issue for the favorite Tigers: In the first 5 weeks, they play 4 Power 5 teams with winning records last year. I wonder if this is where that catches up to LSU in its attempt to slow down Quinshon Judkins. Unlike last year, Jaxson Dart avoids costly mistakes in the red zone and allows Ole Miss to play with a touchdown lead for most of the day. A back-and-forth day ends with LSU failing to get the defensive stands it needs in a 35-28 Ole Miss upset.

Week 6: at Mizzou (W)

Unlike the 2020 game when the Mizzou-LSU game was moved to Columbia because of Hurricane Delta, the visiting Tigers don’t let it come down to a goal-line play in the final seconds. Mizzou struggles with the mobility of Daniels and Logan Diggs has his first real breakout game after arriving from Notre Dame in the post-spring transfer portal window. A week after it was on its heels for much of the day, LSU’s front 7 overpowers Mizzou’s offensive line and lives in the backfield. An ugly, low-scoring game gives LSU a bounce-back victory on the road.

Week 7: vs. Auburn (W)

The Tiger Bowl rarely disappoints. Six of the past 7 were decided by 1 score, including the past 2 years when each team pulled off an epic road comeback to win. But this time, the home team will be in good shape to flex its muscles. Auburn’s offensive line is overwhelmed by LSU, and Payton Thorne spends too much time running for his life. Two pressure-induced turnovers spark LSU and a back-and-forth game early turns into a 2-touchdown victory for the Tigers. Or rather, the home Tigers.

Week 8: vs. Army (W)

Army is no longer running the triple option. I repeat, Army is no longer running the triple option. Fortunately for LSU, it’s well-equipped to stop an offense undergoing a massive schematic overhaul.

Week 9: Bye

Week 10: at Alabama (W)

How’s this for drama? In the early moments, Daniels suffers a leg injury. That brings on Nussmeier, who leads LSU to a thrilling victory in Tuscaloosa, where Alabama hasn’t lost since a certain Joe Burrow did his thing in 2019. Instead of this being a revenge game, we’re reminded that the Alabama offense isn’t quite as explosive as it has been. LSU’s loaded front 7 gets home and it’s a day to forget for Ty Simpson, who can’t keep pace with Nussmeier’s home-run plays. The good news for Alabama? It still has a path to Atlanta. The good news for LSU? It now has control of the West.

Week 11: vs. Florida (W)

Call it an Alabama hangover, but LSU gets off to a disastrous start. With Nussmeier behind center for the injured Daniels, Florida DC Austin Armstrong dials up pressure and forces the young signal-caller into multiple first-half mistakes. The Tigers go into the locker room staring at a surprising deficit … only to come out and drop the hammer in the second half. A Major Burns pick-6 of Graham Mertz sparks 21 consecutive points for LSU to avoid disaster. Five straight victories against Florida marks the Tigers’ longest winning streak in the rivalry.

Week 12: vs. Georgia State (W)

Never sleep on Shawn Elliott’s squad. Go ask 2019 Tennessee about that. But Josh Williams and Noah Cain both hit pay dirt for a run-heavy LSU offense ahead of the all-important regular season finale.

Week 13: vs. Texas A&M (L)

Do you think A&M is going to relish the opportunity to play spoiler again? I do. Instead of LSU locking up another West title, it fails to avenge its 2022 loss to the Aggies and it blows a golden opportunity. Why? Balance. LSU is unable to pin its ears back and get home. Unlike last year when it was mostly about the A&M ground game, QB Conner Weigman shows his growth by stepping into some NFL throws and burning LSU on the back end. The full transformation of A&M’s offense is complete and a stunned Death Valley crowd is left wondering what to make of a roller-coaster season.

2023 projection: 9-3 (6-2), 2nd in SEC West

#GeauxTigers

Losing the regular-season finale after beating Alabama win to revive Playoff hopes would be a crushing way to watch a Playoff opportunity slip away. I would understand why there would be a bit of an empty feeling if the most talented team that Kelly ever coached didn’t win a division title.

But at the same time, LSU getting to a New Year’s 6 bowl to potentially reach double-digit wins again would be nothing to scoff at. Don’t forget that it took until Year 5 of the Playoff era for LSU to reach a New Year’s 6 bowl. And considering the unknowns of Kelly’s fit at this time last year, life could be a whole lot worse than earning more late-season Playoff consideration after becoming the first team to beat Alabama in consecutive years since 2014-15 Ole Miss.

LSU is in position to give Saban’s Alabama yearly battles unlike any West foe since he’s been at Tuscaloosa. This year will be another reminder of that.

It just won’t end with an invite to the final 4-team Playoff.