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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Arkansas. We’ll stay with the SEC West all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every SEC East team.
Previously: Alabama
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That wasn’t what I had in mind for America’s team in 2022.
A 6-6 regular season saw a mass personnel exodus at season’s end. The honeymoon phase of the Sam Pittman era ended abruptly and a season that began with New Year’s 6 bowl hopes ended with a Liberty Bowl victory.
It was a setback season, by any stretch. The Hogs didn’t beat anyone that had a winning record in SEC play. Two respected coordinators came into question and some significant transfer portal departures from mainstays like Jalen Catalon, Trey Knox and Jordan Domineck led to the first real dip in Pittman’s approval rating.
But it wasn’t all negative.
KJ Jefferson took the next step as a passer and Rocket Sanders became Arkansas’ best back since Darren McFadden. Both are back to do the heavy lifting for a team that’s hoping to return to SEC West relevance.
Does that happen? And will the jukebox be cranked up to 11?
Here’s what’ll determine that:
So long, Kendal Briles. Hello, Dan Enos
Briles flirted with the idea of leaving several times and finally, flirtation turned into a new relationship. He’s off to TCU after an up-and-down final season in Fayetteville. Pittman immediately decided to bring Enos back to Arkansas. The expectation is that Enos will operate a much more pass-heavy attack than Briles did the past 2 years when the Hogs ranked in the top 10 in rushing attempts per game, but not in the top 100 in passing attempts per game.
Enos, on the other hand, led a Maryland passing attack that ranked No. 16 in attempts/game in 2021 and No. 41 in 2022. And even that frustrating 2019 Miami offense that he ran ranked No. 30 in touchdown passes (27).
It’s going to be a different offense. That much we know. The question is if Arkansas has the personnel to execute it.
Jefferson basically matched his 2021 passing production, but did so in 2 fewer games. Without Treylon Burks, I thought he took another step. For the second consecutive year, he was in the top 10 in FBS in quarterback rating. And obviously, he’s still a nightmare to bring down with his legs. Keeping him healthy is essential. The hope is that he takes less hits operating this offense, which will even require him to take some snaps from under center. That’ll ideally cut down on the hits he takes when he isn’t the ball-carrier on an RPO.
This offense isn’t going to operate with the tempo that we’re used to seeing, though Enos did run an offense who ranked in the top 1/3 of FBS in total plays each of the past 2 seasons. What’ll determine its potential is if Jefferson can make those post-snap reads and develop a rapport with a mostly new group of pass-catchers.
Fortunately, he does have a nice complement behind him …
The Rocket was launched in 2022. Can it ascend to new heights in 2023?
Sanders played like an All-American in 2022, which was huge because if he didn’t, I’m not sure the Hogs would’ve played in a bowl game with an opportunity to reach win No. 7. He had the most scrimmage yards in the SEC (1,714) and the most of any Arkansas player since 2007 McFadden.
Here’s the list of Power 5 running backs who had 200 carries, 6 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns:
- Bijan Robinson, Texas
- Kendre Miller, TCU
- Eric Gray, Oklahoma
- Rocket Sanders, Arkansas
And how many of those guys are back in 2023? One. It’s Sanders. He is not just a byproduct of the system, which is why he’ll still have plenty of success in the new offense. Also remember that Beaux Limmer and Brady Latham are back to solidify the middle of that interior offensive line.
Pittman said at SEC Media Days that Sanders was up to a few pounds but that he was “running faster than ever” and even at 242 at the start of fall camp, Pittman added that “there’s no fat there.” It makes sense that Sanders would tack on a little weight because if the expectation is there’ll be less tempo, he could clearly get away with not being as lean. Remember, he was once around 205 when he got to Arkansas, and last season was his first as a full-time featured back.
A pre-Draft version of Rocket could absolutely launch into a new orbit.
Travis Williams’ biggest task? Find any way to turn around last year’s “pass defense”
I put “pass defense” in air quotes because when you’re dead last in FBS in that category, yeah, we can question that. Nobody in America allowed more 20-yard passes than Arkansas, and Barry Odom’s defense allowed 4 more 30-yard completions (32) than the next-closest team.
It’s ironic because Arkansas finally had the pass rush that it was desperately lacking with 1-and-done All-SEC linebacker Drew Sanders. But it was a disaster on the back end basically from the moment that Catalon went down in the season-opener. It doesn’t help that the Hogs’ top 4 defensive players are gone (2 via transfer, 2 to the NFL) and the unit ranks No. 96 in percentage of returning production.
Odom left for UNLV and Williams came aboard after an impressive run as Gus Malzahn’s defensive coordinator at UCF. The plan is to have a variety of fronts, and they’ll take more chances. Unique blitzes will be needed, especially for a group with some questions at the pass-rusher spots. Versatile Baylor transfer Al Walcott will help with that. Even with that aggressive approach, Williams’ UCF defenses still only allowed 8 40-yard passes the past 2 years. Compare that to 24 that Arkansas surrendered in that stretch.
Williams has to avoid spots where safeties are getting gashed over the top. Period. Arkansas won’t take that next step if the entire defense is predicated on 2-3 pass-rushers getting home. Williams will be a defining hire of Pittman’s time at Arkansas.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Western Carolina in Little Rock (W)
It’s ideal that with new schemes on both sides of the ball, Arkansas gets an FCS opponent in Week 1, unlike last year when Cincinnati was months removed from a Playoff berth. And unlike the meeting with last year’s FCS foe, Bobby Petrino’s Missouri State, this one is over well before the 4th quarter.
Week 2: vs. Kent State (W)
Remember when I said that schedule started favorably? Kent State won 5 games, it has first-year head coach and it ranks dead last in percentage of returning production. We’ll get some reminders of that in this one.
Week 3: vs. BYU (W)
Never ever sleep on BYU, but man, it’s hard to imagine a different script than last year when Arkansas piled on 644 yards in a 52-point showing in Provo. Jefferson was at the peak of his powers. Once again, Jefferson and the Hogs run wild against BYU. He outduels the well-traveled Kedon Slovis in another high-scoring Arkansas victory.
Week 4: at LSU (L)
All the good vibes about the new Arkansas offense come to a screeching halt in Baton Rouge. It’s a rare instance in which the Hogs don’t have that interior offensive line advantage against LSU’s loaded front 7. Harold Perkins owns the state of Arkansas after last year’s “flu game.” The question is if Maason Smith will split ownership this time. LSU controls the line of scrimmage on both sides and takes advantage of the Hogs’ revamped secondary with that loaded group of pass-catchers.
Week 5: vs. Texas A&M in Arlington (L)
That Jefferson fumble on the goal line against A&M changed the trajectory of Arkansas’ season. That was the difference in the matchup in 2022. What’s’ the difference this year? The pressure that A&M can finally put on an opposing secondary with Robert Patrick Petrino. Scheme will matter, but so will having an extremely deep group of pass-catchers to help the emerging QB Conner Weigman. Petrino kept Arkansas on its heels with Missouri State’s roster last year. I imagine he’ll be able to even better things running the A&M offense against his former team.
Week 6: at Ole Miss (W)
A desperate Arkansas team shows up in Oxford. It’s as simple as that. During the 3 years of Pittman-Lane Kiffin matchups, these have somewhat quietly been wildly entertaining games with big plays galore. Ole Miss looks like a team that’s gassed after the LSU victory, and that’s a bad recipe for trying to stop Sanders and Jefferson. Kiffin knows that all too well. Sanders had 261 scrimmage yards against his defense last year. Then again, Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans both eclipsed the 200-yard mark for Ole Miss. I mean, this one had nearly 800 rushing yards. That doesn’t quite happen this time, but just like last year’s frigid day of zero tackling in Fayetteville, Arkansas’ ground game does the heavy lifting in a win.
Week 7: at Alabama (L)
This will be the point in Arkansas’ season in which it wished it had a true alpha dog No. 1 receiver to take some pressure off Jefferson. But nobody who lines up across from Kool-Aid McKinstry and the Tide secondary can break free. On the other side of the ball, WR Malik Benson has the breakout game that Alabama has been waiting for. It leads to a continuation of the SEC’s longest annual rivalry winning streak, which will be at 17 by game’s end.
Week 8: vs. Mississippi State (W)
In a battle of experienced, prolific quarterbacks in new schemes, we get a shootout. Both teams take to the air in a fun, back-and-forth noon game on SEC Network. Jefferson is so dialed in that he’s throwing first-read jump balls to big-bodied transfers Andrew Armstrong and Tyrone Broden in single coverage. Without a lockdown corner like Emmanuel Forbes to step in, Mississippi State struggles to stop the bleeding in a 38-35 Arkansas win.
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: at Florida (L)
This has the makings of a big Ricky Pearsall day. I’m not sure that Arkansas and its transfer-heavy secondary will have an answer for Florida’s talented receiver. Arkansas jumps out to a fast start against a Florida squad that looks a bit fatigued coming off the Georgia game, but the adjustments of Gators DC Austin Armstrong prove to be the difference. The Hogs fail to clinch bowl eligibility and Florida gets a much needed bounce-back win.
Week 11: vs. Auburn (W)
This is a bad time of year to have to face Jefferson and Sanders. It’ll probably be a brisk day wherein Auburn’s defensive depth isn’t at ideal levels, and the Hogs take advantage of that. But it’s actually Rashod Dubinion who makes the game-breaking plays to put this one away. Freeze, who beat Arkansas at Liberty last year, comes up short in Fayetteville.
Week 12: vs. FIU (W)
After the aforementioned loss to Liberty and the close call against FCS Missouri State, Arkansas shouldn’t take any game lightly in 2023, especially against a former national coach of the year in Mike MacIntyre. But against a defense that struggled mightily in 2023, Arkansas airs it out in a comfortable home victory.
Week 13: vs. Mizzou (W)
I’ll call my shot and say that Trajan Jeffcoat has 2 sacks against his former team. I’ll call another shot and say that Arkansas treats this as a Senior Day of sorts for Jefferson and Sanders, both whom could return in 2024, but barring injury, will likely be off to the NFL at season’s end. Much like when Treylon Burks got an ideal sendoff 2 years ago against Mizzou, the same plays out for Jefferson and Sanders. The Battle Line Rivalry goes to the home team for the 4th consecutive year.
2023 projection: 8-4 (4-4), 4th in West
#WooPig
Improving by multiple regular-season wins would be a nice way for Pittman to fend off any potential hot-seat discussions in November. Staying afloat in the West is easier said than done. In this scenario, Jefferson is healthy. If he’s not, it’s fair to question how bad things could get. Fortunately for him, Enos’ offense should do a nice job of keeping him upright while allowing him to develop as a passer.
Arkansas’ defense has major questions. It’s a pretty significant overhaul, which it needed. Can it at least flirt with mediocrity? I believe it will. It won’t be one of the better groups in the SEC, but it shouldn’t be a complete liability, either.
Having a potential 9th win on the table in a Florida bowl game would feel like a “back on track” season for the Hogs.
Expect a bit more music on the jukebox in 2023.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.