Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Auburn. We’ll stay with the SEC West all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every SEC East team.

Previously: Alabama | Arkansas

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Let’s try this again.

From the jump, replacing Gus Malzahn proved to be a tricky endeavor. At the end of the 2020 season, a drawn-out hiring process led to Bryan Harsin taking over. About 22 months later, the Harsin era crashed. Sure, there were some messy details sandwiched in there. There was the coup to get him fired, a botched offensive coordinator, second-half collapses galore, etc.

So like I said, let’s try this again.

Hugh Freeze is Auburn’s second attempt to replace Malzahn. Ironic that it’s also Freeze’s second attempt to be an SEC head coach.

While it wasn’t a Colorado-like roster overhaul, Freeze was brought in under the assumption that he’d have some cleaning up to do, and that this wasn’t going to be an SEC championship-caliber roster in the near future. Well, at least that should’ve been the assumption. Auburn is in a different place than even a decade ago when Malzahn led that magical run as a first-year coach in 2013.

The recruiting efforts of the previous coach are factored into that, as is the transfer portal. It was mostly a 1-way street under Harsin. With Freeze, it’s at least been more of a 2-way street with acquiring talent. Whether that results in a significant Year 1 improvement in the nation’s toughest division remains to be seen.

What should we expect from the start of the Freeze era? Let’s dig into it:

Welcome back, Hugh

After 6 years away, Freeze made his long-anticipated return to the SEC. Early returns have been promising. Auburn hired a more self-aware Freeze than the one who let off-the-field issues get the better of him at Ole Miss. He looks like someone who understands that getting a second chance at acceptance is one thing, but getting a second chance to coach in the SEC is even more rare.

It’s been interesting seeing Freeze’s active approach to the transfer portal. He brought in 21 transfers, 10 of whom are from Power 5 schools. But Freeze also got proven Group of 5 starters. Dillon Wade, Gunner Britton and Jaden Muskrat were all starting offensive linemen at their previous stops, and USF 1,000-yard back Brian Battie should help if Jarquez Hunter misses any time. Instead of hoping that Harsin and his staff developed some of the underclassmen that Freeze didn’t recruit, he went out and got more plug-and-play guys to help his team immediately.

Freeze also hired Philip Montgomery to run the offense. Freeze admitted that while he’ll still have the ability to step in and call plays, he’s no longer an elite play-caller, which is why Montgomery was hired. It’ll be the same scheme, albeit with some new terminology. Yes, Freeze was hired because he’s an elite offensive mind, but he needs to be in the CEO-type role.

In that respect, Freeze took a page out of the Lane Kiffin/Josh Heupel playbook. That was a smart, important precedent to establish.

Can Payton Thorne play a pivotal role?

I’m super intrigued by Robby Ashford. Even though he’s entering Year 4, he’s still extremely football young because his first 2 springs at Oregon were spent playing baseball. There’s a way to go in order for Ashford to develop as a reliable passer, which is similar to Malik Willis when he transferred from Auburn to join Freeze at Liberty. Willis redshirted that first year because of NCAA rules, which was a blessing in disguise. My guess is that Ashford will get similar treatment, which is fine because he has 2 years of eligibility left after the 2023 season.

That’s why Freeze was willing to bring in Thorne as a post-spring transfer. He was a 2-year starter at Michigan State, though he struggled at times without stud running back Kenneth Walker III in 2022. The question is if Thorne can give Freeze something that he desperately needs — a proof of concept quarterback.

Freeze wants to implement his offense. He doesn’t want to default to running the ball 75% of the time simple because that’s what his personnel can do. That worked for Cadillac Williams during his month as an interim coach because it maximized the potential of Auburn during a lost season. But 2023 isn’t a lost season. It’s a foundation season.

In an ideal world, Thorne can start every game and Auburn will show receivers in the portal and at the high school level that Freeze and Montgomery are running a fun, explosive offense. You can do that while developing Ashford and giving him some reps, though not in a manner that suggests it’s a 2-quarterback system.

If Thorne, who was benched multiple times at Michigan State last year, can simply be the QB1 from start to finish with even a middle-of-the-pack SEC passing attack, that’d be a massive win in Year 1.

Can Ron Roberts restore the Auburn defense after it fell off a cliff in 2022?

Think about this: From 2016-21, Auburn ranked in the top 1/3 in scoring defense every year. That’s a really solid 6-year stretch, and it’s really why the program was able to withstand some of the offensive ups and downs.

But last year? Woof. It wasn’t just that Auburn finished the season ranked No. 97 in scoring defense and run defense. In the month of October, AKA the meat of the college football schedule, this is what the Tigers did:

  • 300.3 rushing yards/game allowed (last in FBS)
  • 15 rushing TDs allowed (last in FBS)
  • 5.9 yards/carry allowed (No. 127 in FBS)
  • 38 points/game allowed (No. 123 in FBS)

Bad. It was fitting that Harsin was fired on the last day of October. The month was a train wreck. Whether it was depth, scheme or pride, nothing worked.

So now, Roberts is tasked with fixing that. He spent the past 3 years with Dave Aranda running Baylor’s defense, though he was fired at the end of a disappointing 2022 season.

The good news is that he has a couple of preseason All-SEC guys in Nehemiah Pritchett and DJ James, and Jaylin Simpson is back for an experienced secondary. The bad news is that Roberts will have to rely a whole lot on newcomers in other spots. It’s fair to wonder if Auburn will struggle to get a pass rush in a post-Derick Hall/Colby Wooden world. And it’s also fair to wonder if the strength of this defense — the secondary — will be put in some tough spots.

The raw numbers against the pass were solid last year, but that was also because you didn’t have to throw against Auburn. Forcing teams to at least have some sort of balance is pivotal for Roberts.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. UMass (W)

Don Brown’s defense showed a pulse against A&M in College Station last year, but that was more of a Jimbo Fisher deal than a “we can hang with a Power 5 team” deal. A low-volume passing day still produces a pair of touchdown passes to newcomers Caleb Burton and Nick Mardner.

Week 2: at California (W)

Cal might be in the single worst spot of any Power 5 team. The athletics department is facing catastrophic debt, and the Bears haven’t played in a bowl game since 2019. Granted, Cal did go 2-5 in 1-score games and Justin Wilcox is still one of the sport’s better defensive minds, which should bode well for a team that ranks No. 17 in percentage of returning production. In a 17-14 rock fight that goes down to the wire, 2 Battie touchdowns are the difference and Auburn gets a big early road win.

Week 3: vs. Samford (W)

Don’t sleep on Samford. Ask 2021 Florida about that. Auburn doesn’t, and we see some promising throws from Ashford in relief.

Week 4: at Texas A&M (L)

When I explain why SEC football is great, I’ll point to last year’s A&M-Auburn atmosphere at Jordan-Hare. At Kyle Field, it’ll be another great atmosphere. This is the first example of Auburn running into a passing game that can beat you in a variety of ways. A&M’s passing game shines as Freeze’s squad struggles to dial up pressure. That’s the difference in a “closer than expected” battle in College Station.

Week 5: vs. Georgia (L)

This is where reality sinks in that Auburn just doesn’t have the dudes up front to compete for a conference title. Not yet. Even in the hostile road environment, Georgia’s loaded offensive line bullies Auburn up front. Just like he did 2 years ago on a long play-action pass from Stetson Bennett IV, Ladd McConkey hauls in another long touchdown from Carson Beck to put the exclamation point on Georgia’s 7th consecutive victory in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: at LSU (L)

The Tiger Bowl rarely disappoints. Six of the past 7 were decided by 1 score, including the past 2 years when each team pulled off an epic road comeback to win. But this time, the home team will be in good shape to flex its muscles. Auburn’s offensive line is overwhelmed by LSU, and Thorne spends too much time running for his life. Two pressure-induced turnovers spark LSU and a back-and-forth game early turns into a 2-touchdown victory for the Tigers. Or rather, the home Tigers.

Week 8:  vs. Ole Miss (L)

After all the Lane Kiffin-Auburn drama, this one might mean a little bit more to the Ole Miss coach. Much like last year in a 448-rushing yard performance, I’m not sure the Auburn defensive line will be poised to slow down that Quinshon Judkins-led rushing attack, especially after a grueling matchup a week earlier at LSU. The tempo of Ole Miss keeps Auburn on its heels, and that defensive depth is put to the test. Ole Miss wins a 28-27 thriller.

Week 9: vs. Mississippi State (W)

Freeze knows a thing or two about beating Mississippi State. He did it 3 times at Ole Miss, though times have changed since the days he coached in the Egg Bowl, including the team Freeze is leading. Freeze’s first SEC victory at Auburn is the byproduct of a rare multi-interception day from Will Rogers. Pritchett takes one of them back to the house to ignite the home crowd and give the struggling Auburn offense some life. Thorne does the rest and a missed Mississippi State game-tying field goal attempt in the closing seconds gives Auburn a 31-28 victory.

Week 10: at Vanderbilt (W)

I believe AJ Swann has Vandy entering the 4th quarter with a lead and Auburn has to find options late. That comes in the form of 2 long touchdown runs from Hunter. A prime opportunity slips away from Clark Lea, and Auburn avoids spoiling a prime opportunity for its bowl chances.

Week 11: at Arkansas (L)

This is a bad time of year to have to face KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders. It’ll probably be a brisk day wherein Auburn’s defensive depth isn’t at ideal levels, and the Hogs take advantage of that. But it’s actually Rashod Dubinion who makes the game-breaking plays to put this one away. Freeze, who beat Arkansas when he was the head coach at Liberty last year, comes up short in Fayetteville this time.

Week 12: vs. New Mexico State (W)

Bowl eligibility will be on the line, so don’t expect a whole lot of funny business. Freeze goes run-heavy and turns it into the Hunter-Battie show in a lopsided Auburn win.

Week 13: vs. Alabama (L)

Each of the past 3 trips Alabama made to The Plains, it trailed in the final minute of the 4th quarter. Does that happen again? No. Alabama leans on that ground game against a revamped but still thin Auburn defensive line. Depth issues hurt the Tigers up front, and after a slow start, Jase McClellan takes over in the second half to prevent that trend from continuing. What else does that win do? It clinches the West for Alabama.

2023 projection: 6-6 (2-6), 7th in West

#WarEagle

On the surface, another 2-6 season in SEC play would be tough to stomach. Auburn fans endured a brutal 2-year stretch under Harsin, and the idea of still being in the basement of the division has to be frustrating.

But think about this: A possibility for win No. 7 in a bowl game with some close losses could actually have Auburn feeling like it’s in a good spot entering the new, expanded SEC. If Freeze continues to crush the recruiting trail and if Thorne shows some promise, look out. Auburn will have a much different vibe entering 2024.

That’s still a much better place than it could’ve been. Freeze’s transfer portal moves will help Auburn avoid what could’ve been another 5-7 season playing in the toughest division in college football. Plus, how fitting would it be if the former Liberty coach and Memphis native ended his first season at Auburn with a Liberty Bowl invite?

A foundation year on The Plains awaits.