Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Ole Miss. We’ll stay with the SEC West all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every SEC East team.

Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | LSU | Mississippi State

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At the very least, it was entertaining.

An 8-5 season wasn’t exactly the way that Ole Miss wanted to build off a historic 10-win regular season in 2021. A 7-0 start in 2022 spiraled into a 1-5 finish after Lane Kiffin’s squad went into the locker room at LSU with a lead and a No. 7 ranking in late-October.

Late-season rumors of Kiffin’s possible departure for Auburn put a damper on a once-promising season. Well, maybe it wouldn’t have been a damper if Ole Miss had built on that strong start.

But more important than winning 8 games vs. 9 was the fact that Kiffin stayed at Ole Miss. That happened amidst Kiffin calling out a reporter for falsely reporting that he was leaving to become Auburn’s next head coach. With a new contract that’ll put him in the $9 million-a-year club, he’ll return a team that’ll start in the AP Top 25 in consecutive seasons, which has only happened one other time since 1970.

Another thing that only happened once in the last half-century? Ole Miss recorded 3 consecutive 8-win seasons. That’s very much on the table this year.

Does it happen? Let’s dig into it.

Jaxson Dart is back and better than ever?

All reports out of camp are that Dart took that next step this offseason. That’s after Lane Kiffin added 2 highly regarded Power 5 quarterback transfers in Walker Howard and Spencer Sanders. Dart capped a turnover-free spring with a stellar Grove Bowl ahead of Year 2 in the Lane Kiffin offense.

The expectation is that Dart will beat out Sanders and Howard and, according to offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr., “he’s so much further ahead at this point” compared to last year (H/T David Eckert). That’s everything that Kiffin could’ve hoped for after entering the offseason with a thin quarterback room.

So does that mean he’ll be Matt Corral 2.0? Let’s wait and see on that. Dart’s numbers against quality competition dipped significantly, which we saw with Ole Miss’ backloaded schedule. But Dart should benefit from being one of the few quarterbacks in the SEC with stability. Along with Vanderbilt and LSU, nobody else returns both their starting quarterback and offensive coordinator.

Even if Dart doesn’t reach 2021 Corral levels, him taking another step could be enough to get Ole Miss to a New Year’s 6 bowl.

Quinshon Judkins and avoiding the sophomore slump

One of the biggest storylines in the SEC last year was watching Judkins run for more yards than any SEC true freshman not named “Herschel Walker.” A 1,567-yard, 16-touchdown season instantly made Judkins a household name. He went from looking like a guy who was behind a pair of decorated transfers in Zach Evans and Ulysses Bentley IV to being a no-doubter first-team All-SEC tailback. Not bad for a 3-star recruit.

The question now is whether Judkins can avoid the fate that some of the great recent SEC true freshman backs endured as sophomores. That is, getting hurt. Before Judkins, Nick Chubb, Todd Gurley and Marcus Lattimore delivered the top 3 true freshman seasons — and all missed multiple games with injuries as sophomores.

In 2022, Judkins averaged 21.1 carries per game. No other Power 5 true freshman averaged more than 15.2. Previously, the last time a Power 5 true freshman averaged 21 carries per game was 2017 when Jonathan Taylor and AJ Dillon hit that mark.

Will Kiffin dial back that workload? Or will we again see him tote the rock 20-25 times per SEC game? Kiffin’s management will be interesting. Bentley’s emergence would go a long way in helping Judkins get some much needed rest. Now that the former SMU transfer is healthy, he could be in line for a significant workload in that run-heavy offense.

Whatever the case, keeping Judkins upright and looking like an even better version of himself is at the top of the priority list.

The Pete Golding experiment should be fascinating

You couldn’t have scripted a more interesting place for Golding to leave Alabama for. Now working as Kiffin’s 3rd defensive coordinator in 4 years, the former Alabama DC has a very different bar to live up to. In Tuscaloosa, Golding arrived to a place with nothing but top-7 scoring defenses for a decade. That never happened during his 5 years as Nick Saban’s assistant, which wasn’t lost on Tide fans.

But a top-50 defense is unheard of at Ole Miss. It has been 8 years since that happened. Will Golding succeed with lower expectations?

That, we don’t know. What we do know is that he now has total autonomy on defense. We also know that Kiffin’s up-tempo offense isn’t exactly known for giving defenses on either side a whole lot of time for rest. That could play into Golding’s scheme, which figures to feature a variety of fronts. We saw base packages in the spring game because Kiffin wanted to isolate the defensive variable and keep things consistent for the offense.

Can Golding find a nice landing spot? Or will the scrutiny follow him to another SEC West fan base? We’ll find out soon enough.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Mercer (W)

Over/under 2.5 quarterbacks played? I’ll take the over, and I’ll take Ole Miss lighting up the scoreboard to kick off 2023.

Week 2: at Tulane (W)

What a brutal time to have a road game at Tulane. How often to you get a road game against a Group of 5 team coming off a New Year’s 6 bowl victory? Not often. It’s probably even less often that a team in that spot also returns its head coach, starting quarterback and a roster that ranks in the 1/4 in percentage of returning production. So what’s the difference? It’s not Judkins. It’s the Dart-Zakhari Franklin connection. He goes off for a 200-yard day in a fun, back-and-forth shootout that ends up being one of the best games of nonconference play. More important, Ole Miss gets out of New Orleans with a 42-35 win.

Week 3: vs. Georgia Tech (W)

Last week, it was Franklin who went off. This time, another Group of 5 transfer receiver, Tre Harris, does the heavy lifting for Ole Miss. It’s not quite as lopsided as last year’s 42-0 beatdown in Atlanta, but a 3-score win sees Harris earn SEC Receiver of the Week honors.

Week 4: at Alabama (L)

Last year was Kiffin’s chance, and he came up short. This year, I don’t think Dart has the chops to go into Tuscaloosa and string scoring drives together against that Alabama defense. Hopefully he’s not subjected to another egregious hit from Dallas Turner, but I do believe Kevin Steele will ramp up the pressure on the Ole Miss quarterback. That leads to some early turnovers and allows a run-heavy Alabama approach to wear down Golding’s defense in his return to Tuscaloosa.

Week 5: vs. LSU (W)

Huh? How is preseason darling LSU going to stub its toe in Oxford? Isn’t LSU the better team? Yes. But here’s the issue for the favorite Tigers: In the first 5 weeks, they play 4 Power 5 teams with winning records last year. I wonder if this is where that catches up to LSU in its attempt to slow down Judkins. Unlike last year, Jaxson Dart avoids costly mistakes in the red zone and allows Ole Miss to play with a touchdown lead for most of the day. A back-and-forth day ends with LSU failing to get the defensive stands it needs in a 35-28 Ole Miss upset.

Week 6: vs. Arkansas (L)

A desperate Arkansas team shows up in Oxford. It’s as simple as that. During the 3 years of Sam Pittman-Lane Kiffin matchups, these have somewhat quietly been wildly entertaining games with big plays galore. Ole Miss looks like a team that’s gassed after the LSU victory, and that’s a bad recipe for trying to stop Rocket Sanders and KJ Jefferson. Kiffin knows that all too well. Sanders had 261 scrimmage yards against his defense last year. Then again, Judkins and Evans eclipsed the 200-yard mark for Ole Miss. I mean, this one had nearly 800 rushing yards. That doesn’t quite happen this time, but just like last year’s frigid day of zero tackling in Fayetteville, Arkansas’ ground game does the heavy lifting in a win.

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: at Auburn (W)

After all the Kiffin-Auburn drama, this one might mean a little bit more to the Ole Miss coach. Much like last year in a 448-rushing yard performance, I’m not sure the Auburn defensive line will be poised to slow down that post-bye week Judkins-led rushing attack, especially after a grueling matchup a week earlier at LSU. The tempo of Ole Miss keeps Auburn on its heels, and that defensive depth is put to the test. Ole Miss wins a 28-27 thriller.

Week 9: vs. Vanderbilt (L)

Remember last year when Vandy had a 10-point lead with a minute left in the first half? That wasn’t a fluke. Granted, neither was Ole Miss scoring 35 points to erase that deficit and avoid the letdown. But this year, Vandy doesn’t splinter with defensive lapse after defensive lapse. Instead, AJ Swann plays the best game of his young career. Golding’s secondary can’t find answers. After a fast start, Dart reverts to some old habits with 2 red-zone interceptions. Vandy ends the 4-year losing streak to Ole Miss and Clark Lea earns his first SEC win of 2023.

Week 10: vs. Texas A&M (L)

The Kiffin-Jimbo Fisher rivalry is vastly underrated. Kiffin clearly thinks that Fisher has been operating under an outdated offensive philosophy. Well, until now. With an improved A&M run defense, Judkins doesn’t go off like he did a year earlier. Instead, it’s A&M’s tempo that gives Ole Miss problems. A balanced attack leads to a 500-yard day from the A&M offense. The Bobby Petrino hire receives national praise while Golding’s good standing becomes the talk of the town in Oxford.

Week 11: at Georgia (L)

Want a bold prediction? Ole Miss goes into Athens plays 3 of its best quarters of football all year. It goes into the 4th quarter holding on in a tie game after Dart stretches the field and takes chances against the UGA secondary. Fans wonder if Georgia is looking ahead to Tennessee the following week, but in reality, an experienced Ole Miss offense is embarrassed after a pair of home losses, and it puts up 3 touchdowns against Kirby Smart’s defense. But just like Stetson Bennett IV, Carson Beck saves his best for last. Two 4th-quarter touchdown passes and a Dart interception wipe away Ole Miss’ upset bid.

Week 12: vs. Louisiana-Monroe (W)

File this one under “getting excited about Howard’s future.” In relief amidst a blowout win, the LSU transfer steals the show with a couple of garbage time scores.

Week 13: at Mississippi State (L)

Mississippi State showed last year in Oxford that it could contain Judkins. It was 1 of 2 SEC games in which Judkins didn’t hit the century mark, and it was 1 of 3 games all year in which he didn’t have at least 1 run of 20 yards. I wonder about the heart and soul of Ole Miss’ offense being close to 100% at this point of the season. I wonder less about an inexperienced Mississippi State defense getting the reps it needs to shed that notion by November. Zach Arnett picks up his first Egg Bowl win in a defensive-fueled 17-14 rock fight.

2023 projection: 6-6, 2-6, 6th in West

#ComeToTheSip

I know, Ole Miss fans. I’m the worst. You hate me, despite the fact that I have Kiffin beating a Power 5 team that goes on to win 9 regular-season games (LSU), which would be the first such occurrence since 2011. And I’ll also note that I think Ole Miss gives Georgia its biggest scare of the regular season.

So what gives? For starters, I still think Dart is too inconsistent. I worry about his decision-making once he faces teams that can contain his mobility. That turns into a heavy reliance on Judkins. As I teased earlier, I have concerns about him staying healthy in Year 2. Even if he’s limited, that makes a big difference for a team that doesn’t have a great margin for error.

And while I think Golding has his moments, I think that a lack of discipline will prove costly. Alabama was among the 20 most penalized teams each of the past 2 seasons. It leveled the playing field far too often. That’s not all on Golding, but in Year 1 of a new scheme, I do wonder if that’ll be an Achilles’ heel against a tricky schedule.

Kiffin’s Year 4 will be a roller-coaster. What else is new?