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By any objective measure, Dan Mullen’s first season in Gainesville has been a roaring success. A year removed from Florida’s second 4-win season in five years, the Gators won 9 games, reclaimed the state with a four-touchdown rout of Florida State, and qualified for the program’s first New Year’s 6 bowl game of the College Football Playoff era.
The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl presents the best opportunity yet to show Florida is an ascendant program that has left the discord and disappointment of the Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain eras far behind.
The game provides two unique opportunities for the Gators.
First, they can win a “marquee” bowl game for the first time since Tim Tebow’s final game as a Gator, a 51-24 Sugar Bowl win in 2010.
Muschamp took Florida to its only “marquee” bowl game since- the Sugar Bowl after the 2012 season — where Florida was routed by Charlie Strong’s Louisville.
Second, Florida gets a chance to do something McElwain’s Florida teams certainly couldn’t do.
Beat Michigan.
In many ways, Florida’s inability to compete against Jim Harbaugh, who began his tenure at Michigan at the same time as McElwain started at Florida, was a hallmark of the McElwain tenure in Gainesville.
And in no way was that more evident than in Florida’s meeting with Michigan in Arlington, Texas in the 2017 season opener.
Culturally, Florida was a broken team in Texas, arriving on the heels of the Credit Card 9 scandal that deprived the Gators of two of their best players before the season began.
Meanwhile, Florida’s recruiting classes, while improved, still didn’t stack up to what Harbaugh was building in Ann Arbor.
The Gators got two interception returns for touchdowns to stake them to a surprising halftime lead, but eventually, Michigan stopped beating itself and manhandled Florida, winning 33-17 in a game far less competitive than the final score.
The game demonstrated that while McElwain managed to win the SEC East twice, largely by feeding off a down east and navigating the Richt-Smart transition in Athens, the Gators didn’t have the talent — or the mentality — to compete against well-coached competition with equitable or better talent.
That’s a challenge Dan Mullen has embraced from the moment he Gator-chomped his way off the plane. Florida “was and is an elite program,” Mullen told reporters at his initial press conference, and they “will compete with those programs on and off the field.” A month later, Mullen signed the best transition class (on paper) in Florida football history.
Florida’s huge wins over LSU and Florida State this season certainly suggested Florida was on the way back. But a New Year’s 6 win over a top-ten Michigan team with elite talent would be the biggest sign yet that things are different under Mullen.
Florida also should benefit from facing a Wolverines team that is undoubtedly disappointed to not be in the College Football Playoff, having been denied that opportunity following yet another disheartening loss to Ohio State. Michigan will also face the Gators shorthanded, with All-B1G lineman Rashan Gary, All-B1G RB Karan Higdon and B1G Defensive Player of the Year Devin Bush all sitting the game out to protect their NFL Draft stock.
All told, it’s an immense opportunity for Mullen and the Gators.
Here are three ways Florida will likely attack the Wolverines.
Simplify the game for Feleipe Franks against Michigan’s aggressive defense
Michigan’s Don Brown is one of the best defensive coordinators in the sport. He’s a prideful man and will do everything in his power to avoid seeing his defense embarrass itself again after Ohio State’s 62-point explosion knocked the Wolverines out of the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins torched Michigan in the air, throwing for 318 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Even after the Ohio State debacle, Brown is unlikely to sit back and let Franks become comfortable with short passes underneath and screens. Michigan will be Michigan, using physical press coverage and forcing Franks to make intermediate throws.
While no one is about to confuse Feleipe Franks with a Heisman finalist like Haskins, Franks should be eager to show how much he has improved since his first game against Michigan, where he was benched due to ineffectiveness.
Mullen, as a good Meyer disciple, will likely look to simplify the game for Franks by isolating his speedy playmakers on Michigan’s aggressive corners.
Any one of Van Jefferson, Josh Hammond, Freddie Swain or Trevon Grimes would be a matchup problem for Michigan corner Brandon Watson, who Ohio State exploited repeatedly, both on crossing routes and corner routes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yF9weGetyHw
Look for Florida to find creative ways to isolate speedy playmakers on Watson, where the Gators will have a speed and talent advantage.
Blitz less, contain more, keep Michigan behind schedule
Like Brown, Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is known for aggressive defense and exotic blitzes.
At Florida, that has mostly meant finding creative ways to get speedy Vosean Joseph or Chauncey Gardner-Johnson moving downhill toward the opposing backfield, as the Gators did early and often against LSU.
https://twitter.com/JaredStanger/status/1049161997718155265
These concepts continued the remainder of the season, as a stunning 54 percent of Florida’s blitzes involve Joseph, Gardner-Johnson or edge corner C.J. Henderson.
Florida is going to be Florida just like Michigan is going to be Michigan, but Grantham should use some restraint.
Why?
Michigan ranks 27th nationally in sacks-allowed and they are even better at preventing negative plays, ranking 18th nationally in standard-down success rate. Where Michigan has struggled offensively is in creating big plays, especially down the stretch.
The Wolverines rank 69th in marginal rushing efficiency (difference between success rate and expected success rate given down and distance) and 95th in opportunity rate (percentage of carries gaining 4 or more yards). They have only 20 rushes of 20-plus yards, and only 3 of those since Halloween weekend. They beat you by controlling the clock and staying on schedule (6.0 yards per play, including a third-and-medium percentage that is 9th-best in America and a 3rd-and-short percentage that is 13th.
In that regard, Florida is a bad matchup for Michigan, as long as they don’t take too many chances on the blitz.
The Gators rank 22nd in marginal defensive efficiency and an impressive 17th in success rate defensively. They are, however, 79th in explosive plays allowed, and over 40 percent of those “big plays” have come on blitzes.
That might lead you to ask — why does Florida blitz so much?
The answer is the blitzes get home a great deal — they are No. 2 nationally in sack rate and have forced 12 turnovers this season on blitzes.
It’s just that against a ball control offense like Michigan, Florida might be better suited to sit back a bit more.
Attack “the replacements” in the run game
Michigan’s run defense is marvelous, surrendering only 3.4 yards per carry. The only team on Florida’s schedule stingier against the run was Mississippi State, who Florida couldn’t run against (107 yards). That said, Florida State was better statistically until they played the Gators, who gashed the Noles for 282 yards rushing, including over 200 in the second half alone. Ohio State didn’t run the ball well this season, but they did manage 171 against Michigan running out of similar spread and power concepts.
Florida has two advantages every other Michigan opponent didn’t have, though.
First, they get to run at a Michigan front seven playing without Gary, who is probably the best edge-setter against the run in college football. Gary missed three games in the regular season, and Michigan’s defensive line depth is tremendous, but schematically Florida being able to line up All-SEC tackle Martez Ivey on an end one on one all day without keeping a double team home is a big deal. Here’s a good look at what Ivey can do operating one on one in the run game.
"THERE GOES PERINE!"
Lamical Perine goes 74 YARDS for the @GatorsFB TD! pic.twitter.com/W7gkBamuJW
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 24, 2018
More critically, Michigan will be without Bush, the vacuum cleaner of a middle linebacker who obliterated Florida a year ago and whose sideline to sideline speed and knack for finding the ball the Wolverines can’t replace on the current roster.
Florida has two of the better running backs Michigan has played this season in Lamical Perine and Jordan Scarlett, and they should attack the Gary replacement and attempt to isolate Bush’s replacement in run fits early and often.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
