When I first saw the matchup, I didn’t really like it for Florida.

I envisioned a scenario in which Michigan, which has yet to win a New Year’s 6 Bowl in the Jim Harbaugh era, took out some anger from its devastating Ohio State loss. That would mean a long day for Feleipe Franks and the Florida offense for the third time in as many chances against Michigan.

Despite what happened at Ohio State, the Wolverines still had the top defense in terms of yards allowed for the majority of the season. Coached by arguably the top defensive coordinator in the sport in Don Brown, I wasn’t crazy about the idea of Florida’s inconsistent offense lining up with all of Michigan’s playmakers.

But a lot has happened since that matchup was put in place, particularly on Michigan’s side.

We’re not talking about the same Michigan squad that we were a month ago. The future first-round defensive lineman who reeked havoc on Big Ten backfields, Rashan Gary, is skipping the bowl game. The same is true of the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year who’s also likely going to be picked in the first round, Devin Bush.

And just in case that wasn’t enough to change the dynamic of this matchup, Michigan’s best tailback of the Harbaugh era, Karan Higdon, isn’t playing either.

So that all begs the question. Is this shaping up for Florida to win its first New Year’s 6 Bowl of the Playoff era?

Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t know about that. But I do feel like this opportunity is as good of a chance as Florida can ask for to get over that hump.

Keep in mind that while Will Muschamp’s 2013 team got to the Sugar Bowl — and then got upset by Charlie Strong’s Louisville squad — we’re talking about a program that hasn’t won a New Year’s 6 Bowl since 2009. In other words, it’s been since roughly a month after Tim Tebow’s SEC Championship tears that the Gators have experienced a significant bowl victory.

Sorry, Outback Bowl. You’re significant too, I guess.

But think about what that would mean in Year 1 of the Dan Mullen era to get Florida to that point. Coming off a year in which Miami (FL) and Florida State both took steps back, the Gators would finally be back in the power position in the state.

Sorry, UCF. You’re powerful too, I guess.

Jokes aside, the Peach Bowl can potentially serve as the perfect exclamation point to cap Mullen’s first year in Gainesville. To beat a team like Michigan, which spent nearly the entire season ranked in the top 10, en route to win No. 10 would obviously matter to the Gators.

And based on how Michigan’s stars are treating this game, it’s fair to question if it means as much to the players in that locker room. Lord knows how brutal of a loss that was in Columbus. If Michigan came out flat against Florida, nobody would be particularly surprised. At least they shouldn’t be.

It was just over a year ago that a team went into the Peach Bowl coming off a devastating loss, only to underperform and lose to a team from the state of Florida.

See, UCF. You are powerful.

But even if this is a game that Michigan is motivated to play in, there are some basic flaws in the Wolverines’ customary plan of attack, mainly when it comes to time of possession. Michigan is ranked fourth in FBS and second among Power 5 teams in that department.

It isn’t just the big-play ability that the Wolverines are missing. If you look at what the 3 absent players take away on paper in terms of their production the last 2 years, you’ll see why that’s significant:

  • A) Rashan Gary, 0.82 tackles for loss
  • B) Devin Bush, 0.74 tackles for loss
  • C) Karan Higdon, 5.6 yards per carry

In other words, Gary and Bush help the Michigan defense get off the field on third down, and Higdon is who helps them stay on the field. Well, I should probably use that in the past tense. Their Michigan careers are over.

Perhaps with the exception of West Virginia being without Will Grier, no team has bigger bowl game holes to fill than Michigan.

Maybe this is the perfect opportunity for Mullen, with a month to prepare, to catch a Michigan defense off-guard. We already know Franks is trying to fend off the Emory Jones hype, and for so many of these Gator skill players, the goal to leave a lasting impression on the first-year coaching staff heading into the offseason.

Again, there’s no guarantee that Florida shows up the more motivated group. For all we know, this is Shea Patterson’s launching point to get back into the first round discussion and Michigan’s young receivers have their best game of the season.

But it’s just starting to feel like this matchup has turned in Florida’s favor. Time will tell if that’s just me underrating Michigan’s depth at those key positions, and time will tell what Mullen is able to draw up with a month to prepare.

A prime opportunity sits in front of Mullen.

Now is Florida’s chance to be significant, too.