For now, it's Michigan — and not Georgia — that deserves fourth Playoff spot
The first step in the College Football Playoff upheaval took place Saturday night, and it wasn’t the least bit unexpected. No. 3 LSU was the first dance partner to take a chair, losing 29-0 to No. 1 Alabama, opening a spot in Tuesday night’s latest edition of the Final Four.
There is a very deserving team ready to slide into that fourth spot. But it’s Michigan — and not Georgia.
For now.
With a huge emphasis on for now.
The three undefeated teams who will be at the top — Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame — are all deserving. The debate among some one-loss teams like Michigan, Georgia, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Ohio State will linger on, but for now, it’s obvious.
It’s Michigan.
The Playoff selection committee looks at a lot of data, but it really comes down to two things: Who did you beat, and who beat you. There’s a huge disparity there between Michigan and Georgia and the others, in my opinion, but there’s also an ever-so-slight difference between the Wolverines and Bulldogs.
First, let’s look at the losses.
Michigan’s only loss was in Week 1, to undefeated Notre Dame on the road where the difference between winning and losing actually came down to Notre Dame’s first two drives in the first quarter. The Irish scored twice to take a 14-0 lead, but Michigan outplayed them the rest of the way, only to come up short 24-17. It is, by far, the best loss of the one-loss teams.
Georgia’s loss, as we know, was to LSU and, as we also know, it was a true beat-down. Georgia lost by 20 to a team that now has 2 losses. There is no shame in losing to No. 1 Alabama, of course, but now LSU’s second loss is starting to look pretty bad. LSU lost at Florida, and just when you want to say that it’s really hard to win in the The Swamp, look at what Missouri did Saturday. They beat the Gators 38-17 in Gainesville for their first SEC win of the season. That’s a bad look.
Advantage, Michigan. By far.
Let’s look at the wins. Georgia’s best win so far was against the same Florida team that we just determined was a fraud. You might say that Saturday’s win over Kentucky was great, but let’s remember that UK’s best win is against a 3-loss Mississippi State team. There’s really nothing impressive on Georgia’s resume.
Michigan has beaten a Wisconsin team that was once ranked No. 4 in the country and a Penn State team was as high as No. 9. Granted, both of those teams now have 3 losses, too, and Wisconsin isn’t even ranked anymore, but the combined score of those two Michigan wins, both blowouts? Try 80-20.
Again, advantage Michigan. And again, by far.
But here’s the biggest thing to remember here in this first week of November. Being in the Top 4 this week doesn’t mean diddly squat. And if you want to compare Georgia and Michigan, there’s this all-important issue:
Georgia really does control its own Playoff destiny — and Michigan, amazingly, doesn’t. And that’s because of Georgia.
If Georgia wins out and then beats No. 1 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, it’s in the Playoff without question. That’s a 100-percent guaranteed lock. If the Bulldogs lose to Alabama, there’s no way a 2-loss Georgia team makes the Playoff unless there’s totally chaos with Notre Dame and/or Clemson this month.
So Georgia’s fate is in its own hands, plain and simple.
Michigan, for as great as it is playing, can’t say that. Even if the Wolverines win out — which means beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten title game — Georgia beating Alabama in the SEC title game could cause a huge problem for the Wolverines.
Say Georgia wins and is in. Say Clemson and Notre Dame finish the season unbeaten. They’d be in for sure, too. So if the selection committee is evaluating Alabama and Michigan for that final spot, don’t you think they’d lean toward Alabama, which clearly has been the best team in the country all season? Michigan could be on a 12-game winning streak and looking awesome, and it might still be out.
For Georgia, it still comes down to winning out. If the Dawgs had beaten LSU, they probably could have still snuck in the back door of the Playoff with a close loss to Alabama, But that’s not the case now.
Win, and you’re in. Georgia can say that, and Michigan can’t.
So give Michigan the edge for this week, but there’s still a long way to go to get to the finish line. It’s Michigan — for now.
Emphasis added on the for now.
Florida and Kentucky > Wisconsin and Penn State
Yes. Copy that.
No fan of the Big Ten, but yeah, not so much. Nice try, though.
Not even close kentucky sucks and florida super sucks!!! Penn state would smash both of them heck wisconsin to!! By the way LSU didnt score against bama are you sensing an overrated theme here??
Just you.
I guess that means your blind mr. Goose egg. #pathetic
You shouldn’t guess.
Welp your not going to the playoffs bye bye goose egg!!! #trash
The playoff committee is supposed to select the four best teams. Georgia would destroy Michigan if the two were to meet. LSU would destroy Michigan also and Kentucky and Florida would have a good chance of beating Michigan. If somehow Michigan and Alabama were to meet in the playoffs, it would be the most one-sided playoff game ever. Keep in mind that one of the worst teams in the SEC came within five points of beating Notre Dame at Notre Dame.
In fairness, that was when ND still jad Wimbush in at QB. ND with Ian Book is a different story. I also wouldn’t be crazy about UK’s and UF’s chances of beating Michigan.
Michigan would destroy UK, UF and LSU. None of them would score 10 points. Did you even watch UF play this weekend? UGA vs Michigan would be a good game.
Michigan has a legitimately very good defense. I would still say Georgia has the better offense than Michigan. I do think if Michigan and Georgia played that it would be a toss up. Keep in mind Vanderbilt was a touchdown away from beating Notre Dame at their stadium in South Bend.
Yep and 6-6 UK was less than a TD away from beating Auburn in 2010.. close games happen.
I agree. I believe LSUs defense would give Michigan fits but the LSU offense wouldn’t do anything… UK, and UF would be a speed bump at best.
You sound like an idiot one that one the south could produce what facts do you have to back it up??? YOU ” i dont need facts dag nabbit they just would” shut the heck up lsu = trash, kentucky= trash, florida = trash, and georgia got beat by 20 to a team that got blanked your a doofus.
Angry trolls are funny.
Im a troll cause Lsu is trash?? You didnt score bro bama played an fcs school that didnt get blanked tell me your facts if your not trash?? You cant dont call me a troll when you cant tell me how you dont suck!!! Hahahahahha im asking you to explain your opionion and you cant. Im not a troll you just an idiot!
LSU is a legit top 10 team in the country. They have actually beaten a good team this year. Michigan’s best win is over a team at the bottom of the rankings. They will be exposed before it is all over. As I said, you are just a troll talking trash. You’re profile will be gone in a few weeks, never to be heard from again.
Your not legit you laid a goose egg. Wtf are you talking about. Your team sucks. You the one that wont leave i guess its retardation thats keeping you here talking even though your team got spanked. Mr. Goose egg
LSU is 7th in the playoff poll. The committee thinks you are an idiot. They are correct.
Wow! This article sure takes some twist and turns to get to it’s conclusion…
“the difference between winning and losing (the ND game) actually came down to Notre Dame’s first two drives in the first quarter.” What’s that supposed to mean?
Here’s a reality check for the Author. Scores on the first and second drives count for the same points as when a team scores on the last drive of the game.
That would be like a UGA fan saying, UGA lost 4 turnovers against LSU, so lets pretend as if Ga really never lost that game…
Simply put, Georgia is 2-1 against “current top 25 teams” Michigan is only 1-1.
I have no doubt that Michigan will be ranked No.4. The voters always prop Michigan up. They do it to start each and every season. They do it despite Harbaugh essentially having a 500 record against top 25 teams. They do it despite Harbaugh never accomplishing anything of relevance since he showed up at Michigan. They will undoubtedly do it again, just like they always do.
No, the rankings are supposed to be based on resume and who have you played and your record. Georgia has clearly played a harder schedule, and they clearly have a stronger resume. And it’s not even close….
UGA got blownout by LSU, who just put a goose egg up against Bama. UGA’s loss is worse than Michigan’s loss.
Auburn is about to have some really good losses the next few weeks. They should probably be in this quality loss contest as well.
A 3 loss team that loses to TN should not be considered as a “quality loss”
wdeoo12, be careful what you wish for. Kirby might not like getting snubbed in favor of never accomplished anything Harbaugh.
He could decide to make a statement and run up the score for once.
Auburn is next.
Timmy, if you keep reading I haven’t wished for anything. Also I never mentioned Auburn and two UGA fans both mentioned them in response to me..
wde, yep. And Vandy, who got soundly beat by UGA, almost beat ND, who beat Michigan. See how easy that was…
That kind of moving the checkers around the board means nothing. So what’s the point?
One team played 3 top 25 teams and won two of them. The other played two top 25 teams and lost one of them. No need to decipher or manipulate that. Not opinion. Just the facts…
What are you talking about?
UGA and Michigan both have 1 loss on the road to a top 25 team.
UGA’s was by 20 points to a 2 loss team.
Michigans was by 7 points to an undefeated team.
Michigan has played 4 top 25 teams and is 3-1. They might not be ranked now but were when they played them. Michigan has 1 game remaining against a ranked opponent. If they win it and then win the big 10 champ, they have to hope Clemson, UGA, or ND stumble to get in for sure.
UGA has also played 4 top 25 teams and is 3-1. UGA has 1 game left against a ranked opponent. If they win out they’re in.
wde, Georgia’s 3 ranked opponents (as of the hear and now) are ranked in both the AP and the Coaches polls. Michigan St is 24 in the AP and Un-ranked “others Receiving Votes” in the Coaches pool.
LSU, Florida and Kentucky ‘will’ be ranked in the Play-Off pool. Will Michigan ST?
Sorry, if watching UGA stay relevant pains you. But Georgia has played a harder schedule and has played and won against more ranked teams, based on the current rankings and the polls.
Doesn’t pain me at all but Michigan has played a way tougher tougher schedule than UGA. UGA’s best win is against a team who just got beat by 21 at home against Missouri..
Georgia fans will blame the refs or claim they lost on purpose to give their team a chance to catch fire like after losing to Auburn last season.
Vol fans have no place talking about anything last season! Good Lord! Dumpster fire team, no bowl game, no conference wins, coaching search a bigger disaster than their season! Go take a seat and hush.
Hey, I hear Charlotte is nearly a top 50 team so its no wonder your game was so close.
Dude you played an overratted kentucky team that cant score. You played florida who got proven to be a fruad like your own down south writer said you have wins against no one you got blown out by LSU and they were highly overrated they have no offence what so ever. You have no argument what so ever how does georgia get blown out by trash and they should be ranked ahead of michigan. Dude kill yo self. You gotta be dumber then a box of rocks yall played an fcs school and you think your resume is better then michigan we got 6 wins against teams with a winning record you dont and you played an fcs. Walk in front of a bus chump! Georgia looks pathetic. Good wins against no one. Florida should be out the polls this week. Kentucky is coming soon enough almost lost to mizzu dont make me laugh. #pathetic
“Walk in front of a bus chump!”
“Georgia looks pathetic.”
Wow, is this what Michigan fans are like?
If you are hurt and feel i really want someone to harm themselves im sorry. Honestly. If the smack talk is to much im sorry for that to. Most mich fans arnt as aggressive as me. Sorry bro ill tone it down a little.
I appreciate your reply, but I’m not hurt or offended, just a little shocked at the aggression of your comment. Nothing wrong with trash talk at all. Opposing fan bases go at it on this site all the time, and that’s part of what makes college football so entertaining. Though admittedly, in good taste, we don’t generally wish harm on anyone.
I agree w/ the idea GA controls it’s own destiny. What if we lose to Auburn and then beat Bama? That’s a huge wrench thrown into this equation.
Even more, what if Auburn beats UGA and Bama like last year? Then UGA beats Bama in the SECCG? A bunch of 2-loss SEC candidates. So much football left to be played.
Then that could well knock the SEC out of the playoff. Unless you barely beat Bama and the committee still loves them with one loss. I can’t see them taking a two-loss team, SEC or otherwise.
Auburn ain’t sniffing a win vs UGA or Bama this year..
No one, and I mean no one, has even come remotely close to beating Alabama this year. The only way they lose is if they beat themselves with many penalties, poor execution on special teams and 3+ turnovers. Maybe even some key injuries would play a part in it as well.
Not really, not unless Georgia just wiped the floor with Alabama, which they simply will not do outside of Alabama missing the bus to the game. A two loss Georgia team would not beat out a one loss Alabama team for a playoff spot, especially with a weak schedule.
It’s a stretch to say Wisconsin and Penn State are better wins than Florida and Kentucky; it’s nearly impossible to say that they are “by far” better wins. Since you’re bringing up Wisconsin’s and Penn State’s records, you should note that Florida and Kentucky were both no. 9 when UGA beat them. Has Michigan beat two top-10 teams in a row? Is Wisconsin even ranked anymore?
All that being said, I do think Michigan deserves the no. 4 spot ahead of UGA right now.
I don’t think they’re letting 2 teams from the SEC in this year. Especially if Clemson, ND, and Michigan run the table. And don’t forget about a one loss big 12 champ too.
This writer is far from unbiased. He basically wrote an article to advocate for Michigan. Not credible. All of his nonsense is meaningless anyway. UGA is in if the beat Bama and out if they don’t.
I agree about the bias part. There seems to be several writers who are not SEC fans and seem resentful about the SEC being the best conference!
With Notre Dame schedule, they have one more tough game to play…and that’s Syracuse. Don’t laugh but look at who they’ve played and how close their losses were and the teams they did win against. Just sayin’…
I just hope there is not a bias with the committee when or if Notre Dame gets a loss moving forward. Just like the preseason polls, Notre Dame always starts out in the top 10-20 no matter what prior record they have had.
ND is in if they win out and out if they drop a game… Simple as that.
I hope you would be right, but with a 1-loss Notre Dame team versus the other 1-loss teams I just feel the committee would choose Notre Dame (tradition of college football past).
It really doesnt matter where the committee ranks us. In all honesty we’ve not done much so far but show talent over non-elite opposition. In the end, beat Alabama and no team can match our resume; loose to Alabama and we remain a pretty good resume at best. It’s a huge challenge before us. But, it’s crap like this that makes CFB so awsome.
It’s a pretty easy comparison really. Michigan and UGA both have 8 wins and 6 wins against P5 opponents. So the two teams are very comparable but a closer look reveals the differences. First all 8 of Michigan’s wins came against FBS opponents while UGA padded their schedule with an FCS opponent to open the season. Secondly and the biggest separator is the overall quality of the opponents Michigan has faced, because the teams Michigan has defeated have themselves defeated a total of 22 P5 opponents compared to UGA opponents who have defeated only 13 P5 opponents. UGA clearly is a step behind Michigan in terms of the overall quality of the teams they have defeated. However, all of this is mute point because it’s what happens going forward and meither Michigan nor UGA can afford to lose a single game before the CFP if they really want to get an invitation. My question would be does a 1 loss Alabama or Clemson get in ahead of Notre Dame after the championship games?
moot
street. Western Michigan, SMU and 2-7 Nebraska. Very impressive…
But they do play that 9 game B1G schedule. Makes them better every year.
Lol atleast somebody knows some football please learn and shut the F up forever. Georgia is trash! You beat no one like i said!
What time does mommy get home puussyboy?
Lol your mommy will be home when im done with her so stop callin!!!
If Bama wins out, they are in. That means GA will have two losses. Clemson will likely win out. Notre Dame will likely win out. If Michigan or Ohio State win the conference and have one loss, they deserve to be in over a two loss GA team or over anybody from the Big 12. Most of us see Bama and Clemson as being the best two teams in the land. Both teams have improved from last year, with Alabama making the biggest improvements. GA, LSU, and Auburn have taken a step back. Probably something to do with losing those big powerful running backs to the NFL. Michigan has improved a lot from last year.
Not sure why you think LSU has taken a step back this season. They finished 18th last season and are currently in the top 10 in every poll this season. That’s a step up, even with the thrashing by Bama.
gary, those big powerful backs to the NFL have the least to do with it.
Multiple injuries across the O-line and being the youngest team in the SEC are why Ga isn’t quite as good as last year.
Michigan is in the B1G and the committee caught hell last year for leaving them out. That’s the only reason Michigan would be there this year.
Yeah it has nothing to do with michigan probably going 12-1 and georgia probably going 11-2. Nope thats a stupid idea right Einstein??
I hate to say it, because this hurts as a Georgia fan, but being objectively honest, I do not believe that UGA truly is one of the top 4 teams in the country. We’re certainly in the top 10, and I think we can give just about anyone a run for their money, but we’re just too inconsistent. Some of that is injuries, some of that is youth, some of that is play calling, but until we can consistently move the ball (I’m looking at you, Goalline Stands) and produce a better defense, we can’t match up against Bama or Clemson.
I would put bama in a class by themselves, maybe Clemson as well.
I would take the Dawgs over either ND or Michigan.
UGA would beat Michigan like a rented mule.
^ says the guy who sleeps with a Buck Belue bobble head doll. UGA could compete with and possibly beat Michigan on a neutral field… and I’d actually enjoy watching those two teams. But a complete beat down? Seriously bro, lay off the Jagerbombs.
Lol, you already getting butthurt from the dirt stomping AU will get this Saturday.
Nope. AU is down this year; UGA should slice us up like warm butter. Try to stay on topic if you can. You said UGA would beat Michigan like a rented mule; I responded it would be a much closer game.
UGA’s best wins are better than michigan’s best wins. You can argue about which one has a deeper resume of wins, but UGA clearly has the best wins of the two.
I don’t understand why people point to chaos within the SEC as proof of the conference being bad when that same (or worse) chaos occurs in the other conferences and, importantly, the SEC has demonstrated its superiority in out of conference matchups. I’m not talking about “Bama plays the citadel,” I’m talking about the second best pac12 team (Washington) losing to the 7th best SEC team (Auburn) while the third best big10 team (Northwestern) lost to Akron(!). Or the eighth best SEC team (A&M) almost beating the best ACC team (Clemson) while the the seventh best big10 team (penn st) barely beats App st.
The length and scheduling of the cfb season isn’t set up to give us enough data for good comparisons, so we have to make do with what we get. And so far, the SEC has demonstrated a level of talent and depth that the other conferences haven’t matched. So because SEC teams play more games against SEC opponents and only one team can win each game, it is logical that a good team playing against tougher teams will have a worse record than a similar team playing easier teams.
Who do you think UGA’s best wins are and who do you think Michigan’s best wins are?
UGA – UF & UK
Michigan – penn st & mich st
Both of UGA’s are ranked higher than Michigan’s highest.
UF just got beat by 3 touchdowns at home by Missouri. That is not impressive. UK is a good team but would get beat handily by penn st and mich st. When it is all said and done, Penn st will be the highest ranked out of those 4.
UF also beat LSU & Miss st. Much better wins than what penn st and mich st have.
UK beat UF & Miss st. Better wins than penn st or mich st have.
Penn st needed overtime to beat app st and lost to mich st. Not impressive!
Mich st lost to arizona st, lol. Not impressive!
CFB scheduling isn’t set up so that we can definitively learn much about the relative level of each team, so we have to make do with what we have. And what we have indicates that the SEC is tougher than the big10.
Rankings aren’t perfect, but why should we throw out current rankings for what someone *thinks* rankings will be at the end of the year? Also, “UK would get beat[en] handily by penn st and mich st” is another purely unsubstantiated opinion. And if you look at mizzou, they have a 1st round qb and are 2 extremely close losses in very tough circumstances away from having the best 2-loss resume. There isn’t an unassailable position in this debate, but at least for now, the rankings clearly have UF & UK as better wins than penn st & mich st, “by far.”
While I agree with your assessment of UGA vs Mich, your attempt to characterize conferences is supported by a circular argument. Reality is every conference plays a “conference heavy” schedule. That’s not unique to the SEC. This “chaos” you cite is nothing more than middle tier teams that cannibalize each other. It happens every year across every conference.
Citing “almost” wins (TAMU – Clemson) is an even weaker data point.
Every team plays a conference-heavy schedule, but it is illogical to think that the level and distribution of good teams is equal across the conferences. Teams that are relatively equal tend to cannibalize each other, regardless of whether their absolute level is high, low, or somewhere in between. The difference between the cannibalization in the pac12 vs the SEC is that we have good reason to believe that the teams in the SEC have a higher absolute level than the ones in the pac12.
So everyone complaining about a 4-3 SEC team being ranked so high is ignoring the fact that 4-3 in the SEC is not the same as 4-3 in another conference, and may actually be better than 5-2 in another conference.
Clemson v A&M is neither a data point, which is neither strong nor weak. The arguments made from it can be either strong or weak. I think it would be a weak argument to use this to support the opinion that Clemson would be about the sixth- or seventh-best team in the SEC (an opinion I do not hold). I think it would be a strong argument to use this, along with a comparison to the eighth-best team in the ACC (GT, also 3-3 in conference) who was never even in their game against Clemson, to support the opinion that the SEC is better/deeper than the ACC.
What’s being lost in these comments is how awful and embarrassing Alabama’s schedule is. I’m not saying they’re not a great football team but their schedule is an absolute joke. They’ve only beaten one currently ranked team (LSU) this entire year! There non-conference games are Louisville (2&7), Arkansas State (5&4), LA Lafayette (4&5), and The Citadel (3&5).
PLEASE LEAVE THE SOUTH AND GO PLAY SOMEONE, ALABAMA!!! You conveniently schedule a bye before LSU every year and you conveniently scheduled The Citadel before the Iron Bowl/Auburn this year. Next year is even more embarrassing. You have two byes scheduled, one before you play Texas AM and the other again before LSU. And you play Western Carolina before the Auburn game.
Alabama pretty much guarantees themselves a spot in the Football College Playoff EVERY YEAR with horrendous out of conference scheduling. Everyone brags about the SEC but you only have two really good teams every year in Bama and Georgia. So for the love of God, Saban – LEAVE THE SOUTH AND GO PLAY SOMEONE RANKED!!!
p.s. MICHIGAN would destroy any SEC school NOT named Alabama or Georgia and it’s not even close.
p.s. Nobody cares…
Typical Bama fan with no response when it comes to your trash schedule. Go schedule The Powerhouse Citadel and Western Carolina some more!! What an absolute joke.
There is no response really required for your crying. Everyone in the SEC gets two byes next year. LSU takes a bye prior to Bama every year as well. Auburn schedules a scrub prior to Bama every year also… You’re doing nothing but crying…
So before I ignore you let me guess, you’re a Michigan fan? Who should Bama schedule? SMU or western Michigan? Maybe they should schedule some of your powerhouse conference opponents you’re playing like 2 win Nebraska and 1 win Rutgers? Also Michigan has two byes next year as well dumba$$.
I dont know if he a michigan fan or not but you didleave out notre dame first game of the season. Just sayin you conviently let that one off your mentions.
All this bickering is EXACTLY why we need an expanded playoff. Good arguments can be made for several one loss teams. Dawgs are better than ND and Michigan IMO.
Pointing to the LSU loss is a weak argument. UGA got blown out at JH last year and then proceeded to go all the way to OT in the Natty.
Dawgs are better than ND and Michigan IMO.
I think UGA would win if they played Michigan. Everything will sort itself out at the end of season(conference championships).
The argument between UGA & Michigan will only sort itself out if both of them win out, make the playoff, and play each other. The most likely scenario is that we will not learn which is better.