5 reasons Kentucky will upset No. 8 Auburn
Optimistic? Certainly. Insane? Arguably. But going against the conventional “wisdom” of Charles Barkley, the Kentucky Wildcats, owner of 1 winning SEC season in the past 42 years, losers of 17 of the past 18 gridiron matchups with Auburn, are a phenomenal upset pick in Saturday’s matchup on The Plains.
The Wildcats, underdogs by somewhere between 7.5 and 10.5 points, don’t have history on their side, but there are plenty of reasons to think they can indeed pull a season-opening upset. Here are a few:
1. Offensive line advantage
Football is frequently won and lost in the trenches, and that’s where Kentucky has a significant advantage over the Tigers. Center Nick Brahms is the only returning starter on Auburn’s revamped line that’s adequate but hardly scary. The O-line was ranked 9th in the SEC by Phil Steele. Of course, Kentucky returns 4 starters from a group that paved the way for the SEC’s leading rushing attacks last season. Steele ranked UK’s group 2nd in the conference — behind only Alabama. In Kentucky’s last win at Auburn, in 2009, the Wildcats rushed for 282 yards. They’ve got the personnel to approach that number again.
2. Which Bo Nix will show up?
As our Matt Hinton noted, there are often different variations of Bo Nix. While Auburn is betting on the Nix who completed 65% of his passes with 9 touchdowns against no interceptions (his numbers in Auburn’s games against unranked teams), Kentucky is betting on the Nix who barely completed half of his passes, with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions (his numbers in Auburn’s games against ranked teams).
Not only Nix’s stats looked different in those matchups — Auburn scored almost 41 points per game against the unranked foes but just 24 against the ranked ones. Kentucky’s hopeful of getting the lower number … and with good reason.
3. The 2-rushers template
In that 2009 win at Auburn, Kentucky rallied for a 4th-quarter victory on the strength of a gritty defense and a rushing attack that slashed Auburn in different ways. Feature back Derrick Locke had 126 yards on 19 carries, and do-it-all Randall Cobb rushed for 109 yards on 12 carries, including a 61-yard burst from the Wildcat that keyed the winning drive.
Similarly, Kentucky has several options at its disposal Saturday. There’s bully-back Chris Rodriguez, the successor to Benny Snell’s power-back status, speedster Kavosiey Smoke, jack-of-all-trades senior A.J. Rose, or mobile QB Terry Wilson.
Each rushed for over 500 yards in their last season of play (which is a fancy way of remembering that Wilson missed almost the entire 2019 season, but did his running in 2018), and any 2 of the group could play the Locke-and-Cobb role perfectly.
4. An underrated secondary
Kentucky’s 2018 team featured a talented and deep secondary that helped the Wildcats hold opponents to 186 passing yards per game. But pretty much the entire secondary either graduated (Mike Edwards, Chris Westry, Lonnie Johnson) or suffered an injury that caused them to miss 2019 (senior Davonte Robinson). Kentucky plugged in an inexperienced group —and allowed 168 passing yards per game in 2019. Virtually that entire group has returned, and now added LSU transfer Kelvin Joseph. Meanwhile, Auburn’s projected secondary includes only 1 returning starter and a freshman.
5. The Chad Morris factor
Again, to the history books. The 2009 Auburn team was the first for Gene Chizik. They had a brand new offensive coordinator, and despite his credentials, his system absolutely fell apart against Kentucky in the Wildcats’ 21-14 win. That coordinator? Gus Malzahn.
Now, it’s new coordinator Chad Morris, who has been a football albatross since he left Clemson (18-40 at SMU and Arkansas). If Auburn’s offense starts shooting itself in the foot, it could be déjà vu all over again for the Tigers.
I think Bo Nix is much more matured now. More accurate, more experienced, and probably more comfortable in this new Auburn offense. I’m not concerned that the wobbly Bo Nix will show up against Kentucky. But I am nervous. Kentucky may have three or four guys on defense that no one’s even heard of, and they make big plays. Kentucky has a tendency to have those dark horse players. But overall, very exited for this game.
We did actually redshirt ALL of our true freshmen last year. You would not have seen any of them unless you watched our non-conference games. That class was also one of our highest rated. Before the year is over some of them will get your attention, especially since there are no non-conference teams on anyone’s schedule (assuming the season doesn’t get cut short, of course). As this year doesn’t count against anyone’s years of eligibility, I must imagine that this will benefit the Cats more than some other teams over the next few years.
If we can keep our coaching staff pretty much intact you will probably be surprised a few more times when some of the younger guys show up on the radar. We’ve got some good ones waiting in the wings. You will probably also see some of our true freshmen this year. We have so many good running backs that we have had to train the biggest one (true freshman) in Kash Daniel’s old position. He hasn’t made the two-deep yet, though. Unless our season tanks, for some unforeseeable reason, I think we will be one of the more fun teams to watch again this year, even without Lynn Bowden, Benny Snell, or Josh Allen.
I thought UK would upset Auburn when the schedule was released but honestly it has gotten so much attention and so many are calling for this upset I think Auburn comes out angry and feeling disrespected. I got Auburn winning big. AU-37 UK-17
That’s exactly what I was saying. I think Auburn feels disrespected.
My Rodney Dangerfield playing card is getting so worn out that I am trying to save up for the Rat Poison cards when they come out.
Leave it to Auburn for feeling disrespected as they are clearly the more traditional power in this matchup. But I think Kentucky will surprise them.
I completely disagree. The KY-Auburn game was going to bein week 4,I believe, prior to Covid-19. NOW, it’s week 1. I don’t think Auburn will be ready for the Cats. …Just Sayin’.
Clearly not ready..
I’ll take Auburn 35-20.
Dream a little dream for me , Rose-Marie… Lalalalalalala… :-)
I think a better comparison for Nix would be home vs away, not ranked bs unranked. He threw his 6 int away for Jordan-Hare against Florida, LSU and Oregon, two of those being probably the most hostile places you can play and the Oregon game being his first game ever.
I think that matters more when the stadiums are full. With 15000 to 17000 people or however many it is, there is no advantage or disadvantage. It is almost closer to a scrimmage with some noise pumped in. But we will see.
Remember, KY’s Defence is deep & experienced, losing only 5 from last year. One safety – replaced by Two, both of whom are BETTER. The D-Secondary was #2 in the nation last year- we are deeper this year. The D-line — although we lost two,the reload is BETTER & deeper overall. The D-LB group lost two, Ok, however the new people have very high ceilings. #14-D nationally last year with 7 returners, reloading NOT rebuilding… That’s just the D-fence…!
Better keep reloading
Who says it would be an upset? Kentucky is about on par with Auburn these days.
Care to explain?
Well I figure if we beat you guys 12 out the last 15 you must not be that good. Neither is Kentucky. LMAO!!!
Well you haven’t won a NC in 40 years so you must not be very good.. see how easy that is. Knew you couldn’t back up your statement.
That didn’t make much sense lol
@UGAGrad417
Let me do the math for you wde0012. If UGA isn’t very good, as you claim, and we beat Allbarn 12 out of the last 15 then Allbarn really sucks out loud. You guys are right there with Kentucky who we’ve beaten 37 out of the last 42.
I never said UGA wasn’t good lol
If Auburn isn’t very good, as you claim, how come they’ve won a national championship recently? Makes you wonder, huh?
Allbarn was good that year. They made the top offer to that free agent QB and that bought you guys an NC. But that was 10 years ago, not exactly recent.
Here’s some math.. what’s more recent 10 years or 40 years?
You set me up and I knocked it out of the park!!!!
yeah…
Why is that?
That 1980 plaque is still hanging up rusty and covered in cobwebs. You have one of Saban’s disciples so it’s only a matter of time right!
Kirby is not a Saban disciple. He is his own man, with his own style and he bleeds Red and Black. All-SEC as a player at UGA. He waited for years for the UGA job to open up. It’s the only place he wanted to be.
I like Kirby but I think the “Richt with more anger” is probably a good comparison. He is a great defensive coordinator and a good head coach. But I don’t think he is a great head coach, not yet anyway. Needs to be able to win the big game and keeps finding a way to not do that.
Kirby is quite literally a perfect definition for Saban Disciple. He went from valdosta to power 5 to work under Saban at LSU, went to the NFL to work for Saban at Miami, Went to Alabama to work under Saban again… I’m not saying don’t love your coach but holy f dude. Kirby’s career was molded through 3 different nick saban coaching locations. Saban is the goat and there is no shame in coming up through his ranks.
Kirby is absolutely a branch on the Saban coaching tree. But fortunately, he very definitely is not Saban.
Not yet.
Thank you for the respect. May the best team win. It’s going to be FUN to watch. Win or loose, I think it will be a hard-fought game.
UK will upset the barn if Terry Wilson can make enough passes to Terry Wilson to take pressure off Terry Wilson so he can open up the run game.
I predict that Terry Wilson will throw 2 TD passes to himself. This is because I noticed Lynn Bowden whispering in his ear a lot last year when our defense was on the field.
Kentucky will not win but Auburn may loose Malzahn is going to lose at least four of the ten games so why not Kentucky? Remember Kentucky in 2010 came so very close to beating Auburn in Lexington.
It is WAY more enjoyable to go up against the “Name” SEC programs with a solid team. If we win, no matter how, we WILL have EARNED it. This year that observation goes BOTH ways, I hope you do well, the REST of the season!
Kentucky wins 21-17. Auburn starts out 0-2 and finishes at 5-5
Sounds about right Braves fan.
Yikes
It will be decided on the lines in the trenches as they say. I think Kentucky’s O line will win that battle overall and it may be close but I think 21-17 UK.
Irony is looking at the comment section and realizing that the most civil discussions are between Auburn and Kentucky fans right now. Good luck to you guys. Looking forward to a good one tomorrow.
Kentucky fans seem to always be chill. Even when they beat my gators 2 years back, Kentucky fans were cool about it. Rightfully hyped and excited but always civil.
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How do like us now Joe?