SDS Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for Kentucky football in 2019
Editor’s note: Our annual Crystal Ball series continues in the SEC East with Kentucky. Coming Thursday: Missouri.
I don’t care what any diehard Kentucky fan says.
There’s no way they saw 2018 coming (I certainly didn’t because I predicted 5 wins). The program’s best season in 40 years included a streak-ending victory over Florida, double digit wins, a bowl victory and a year-end top 15 ranking in the Associated Press poll. The last time all of those things happened in the same season was 1950.
It was historic and unpredictable in every way. Well, for those on the outside looking in.
So now, how does Kentucky follow its historic year? Does it do what it did in 1951 and rattle off another top 15 season? Or does it do what it did after its historic 1977 season and lay a 4-win egg like it did in 1978?
Let’s take a gander into the crystal ball.
2018 record: 10-3 (5-3), T-2nd in SEC East
Mark Stoops is Rodney Dangerfield
“Hey, I don’t get no respect.”
I feel like nearly every time I heard Stoops speak this offseason, that was his mindset. He came on our podcast and said that, and it was rather unprompted.
“What kills me now … here’s the beautiful thing this year that I love. Everybody’s doubting us now because, ‘oh, we lost 16 players.’ I said, ‘A year ago, you didn’t talk about any of those guys. Nobody gave us any credit a year ago,’” Stoops told us. “So who’s the new 16 guys on this team that nobody knows or cares about or doubts?”
Assistant coach Vince Marrow came out and said he was “pissed off” at the lack of respect Kentucky got this offseason. We’ve seen Terry Wilson be ranked last among SEC quarterbacks and projections like Phil Steele’s that don’t have Kentucky making a bowl game. Rare was it to see anyone include Kentucky as a Top 25 team to start the season in the various preseason polls (I had Kentucky in there).
Kentucky has been given the “back to Earth” treatment because of the losses of Josh Allen and Benny Snell. It’s par for the course for a team without much history like Kentucky.
But the disrespect has gone a bit too far.
Touchdown Terry
I’ve been buying more and more stock in Wilson this offseason. The more I think about his situation last year, the more I realize that he has the potential to take a major step this year. Why? The ability has always been there. He can make the home run plays as a runner and a passer. And at 67% passing, he has a better foundation than many realize.
What frustrated me last year was how Wilson played like he was afraid to make a mistake. Part of that could have been having an elite defense and a solid running game with Snell. Kentucky didn’t need Wilson to take a bunch of chances downfield.
But the other part was Wilson played through what he called a serious leg injury in the middle of the season. You could tell his willingness to run decreased. That’s understandable. It’s also understandable that with Kentucky’s limited quarterback depth last year, putting him in positions to get exposed — empty sets with slow developing plays, designed quarterback runs, etc. — probably didn’t make a ton of sense.
What does make sense is watching a healthy Wilson take the next step. He has what’ll likely be a versatile running game with A.J. Rose and Kavosiey Smoke, and he has a proven go-to target in Lynn Bowden. I’ll buy Touchdown Terry’s chances of making that nickname more appropriate in 2019.
Can the defense reload?
This has been Stoops’ biggest offseason assertion. Yes, the defense will reload. With Kash Daniel in the middle of it, Stoops feels that the Cats have enough to make up for the loss of Allen, 2nd-round pick cornerback Lonnie Johnson and 3rd-round pick safety Mike Edwards.
Who will those guys be? Jamar “Boogie” Watson showed flashes in his first year as a starter at outside linebacker. Calvin Taylor is hoping to make the defensive line the new identity of this year’s defense alongside returning starters Quinton Bohanna and T.J. Carter.
The secondary appears to be the bigger question mark. Besides losing Johnson and Edwards, Davonte Robinson went down with a season-ending ACL tear. It’s essentially a new starting group that Stoops will have to get up to speed in a hurry.
You can bet that teams will try and throw on the Cats early and often.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Toledo (W)
Don’t sleep on the Rockets, who were picked to win the MAC West in the preseason. Toledo scored at least 45 points in each of its 7 wins last year. An interesting early test for Stoops’ defense will be tricky, but too much Smoke and Rose makes this a 3-possession win.
Week 2: vs. Eastern Michigan (W)
Remember when Eastern Michigan nearly beat Kentucky a couple of years ago? Yeah, I don’t see this one being as close. Eastern Michigan ranks No. 117 nationally in percentage of returning production. Kentucky won’t lose that battle up front.
Week 3: vs. Florida (W)
Yeah, I said it. Doubling down. Why can’t a Kentucky team, which had a healthy Terry Wilson last year in the win in Gainesville, take care of Florida at home? Sure, Allen was incredible that game. But the place where Kentucky might have the advantage is with its defensive line. The Gators, as talented as they are on the outside, have major turnover up front. It could prove to be a rough night for Feleipe Franks on the road. Touchdown Terry outshines Franks and leads Kentucky to another upset of Florida — which would be the first time since 1976-77 that the Cats won 2 in a row.
Week 4: at Mississippi State (L)
But Kentucky’s impressive start ends in Starkville. With a more balanced MSU offense, Kentucky struggles to dial up the pressure it did last year on Nick Fitzgerald. MSU doesn’t exactly light up the scoreboard, but it gets an early lead and forces Kentucky to play from down a score or more throughout the game. Kentucky tests its pass-heavier approach but fails against an MSU defense that covers extremely well.
Week 5: at South Carolina (W)
I mean, you can’t pick South Carolina at this point, can you? Five consecutive years of Stoops dunking on the Gamecocks isn’t an accident. Stoops is the best version of himself when this game rolls around. He uses the Youngstown-sized chip on his shoulder to lock in to whatever zone needed. I don’t care where this game is played. Give me Stoops to find a way against South Carolina until proven otherwise.
Week 6: Bye
Week 7: vs. Arkansas (W)
This is the type of game we need to see Wilson put the team on his back. On the defensive side, it’s a good thing Kentucky will have a bye week before Arkansas’ fast-paced offense comes to Lexington. A well-rested Kentucky squad takes care of business and avoids a 7-overtime game.
Week 8: at Georgia (L)
Real quick. Can we just appreciate the fact that Kentucky hosted a de-facto East division title game last year? They won’t get that chance this year, but Kentucky should at least be in the Top 25. The problem? That Georgia offensive attack should be all sorts of dominant. I expect a heavy dose of D’Andre Swift, and at home, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jake Fromm light up that young Kentucky secondary.
Week 9: vs. Mizzou (W)
Kentucky probably won’t be favored in this one, either. But I think this matchup bodes well for the Cats because I’m not sure how well Mizzou will be able to attack Kentucky’s young secondary. Well, maybe not quite like Wilson did last year on that final drive in Columbia. We see more of that version of Touchdown Terry than the one who was limited for basically 59 minutes of that game last year.
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: vs. Tennessee (L)
I have a feeling Kentucky will win a couple of games that people think it’ll lose and vise versa. This would be the latter. Then again, maybe it wouldn’t be after the Vols blew the doors off Kentucky in Knoxville. I think Jim Chaney draws up the perfect game plan to keep Kentucky off balanced, and a Tennessee team that has already seen a loaded slate of SEC foes is ready to roll.
Week 12: at Vanderbilt (L)
Yeah, calling the upset here. I think Vandy’s skill players have a big day. Ke’Shawn Vaughn wasn’t healthy against Kentucky last year, which certainly impacted the outcome of a 7-point game. I think the Commodores score more this time around and whoever starts at quarterback will have plenty of experience by this point.
Week 13: vs. UT Martin (W)
UT Martin will gladly take its check, absorb a swift beatdown and move on to the next SEC team.
Week 14: vs. Louisville (W)
I mean, it can’t get much more lopsided than last year, can it? Maybe it actually will. Louisville was picked to finish last in the ACC Atlantic after a terrible year. It’s hard to see that changing in the first year of the Scott Satterfield era. At home, Kentucky closes the regular season reaching the 8-win mark for the second consecutive year, which hasn’t happened since … 1950, of course.
2019 projection: 8-4 (4-4, 3rd in SEC East)
#BBN
Would an 8-win season be as memorable as 2018? No, but would it show the world that Kentucky’s floor is much higher than people realize? Absolutely.
That’s what Kentucky needs to do this year. The mantra of this team is that they built a program, not a team. Trying to show that 2018 wasn’t some one-off season is easier said than done. But it makes sense why Kentucky players and coaches have been so vocal about this.
It’s not just that they want credit for what they did. It’s that they want the college football world to view their program differently. They want everyone to see what they see. That is, the culture changed. This is no longer “how many days until basketball season?”
Kentucky will always be a basketball-first school, but that doesn’t mean it can’t have more people at Kroger Field every Saturday. Stoops wants that national brand established so that he can continue to get more support and more momentum for his program. It’s different at a place like Texas, where you win 10 games and suddenly you’re dominating the national conversation for being “back.”
Stoops wants the world to know that his program has arrived. Now is his chance.
From an outsider’s perspective this seems like it would be a darn good season for Kentucky. And probably offer a solid recruiting bump too
Lol white trash Kash & the boys have no shot at repeating against SC this year. Soorrey. U had a good run. Stick to hoops, the sport u cheat at best
-Pig
LOL. UK passed USCjr as a program like 3 years ago
That is actually pretty funny it’s so delusional. USC is now Vandy? Good luck to the Cats in most regards, but we will have to re-evaluate after 9-28. You have the bragging rights for now…..
What utter nonsense – we should chat after 9/28 – you won’t be so cocky. SC beats Kentucky this year.
Hahahahaha
Yes we should start a chat after 9/28 because USCjr hasn’t beaten UK since the first year of Obama’s second term. The denial of your new spot in the pecking order is hilarious – Spurrier is not walking through that door
I like the USCjr moniker but also like Small Carolina since it is an accurate description in so many ways.
Wasn’t it 2017 where Kentucky limped by beating Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky?
If SC can’t find a way to beat Kentucky this year they may never beat them again.
You…..I like you.
Cry some more.
Hold up your hand. Either hand, doesn’t matter. Extend your fingers and thumb. Count. Now hold up the other hand. Point at the ceiling. Count again.
Lol…. the chickens are a joke. Should cruise to a 6th straight over you bozos.
Philly, you should stop holding back and open up so we know what you are really thinking! :)
One good season and you kentucky fans think yall are Gods team. Really think everyone is overlooking scar this year. I don’t think either team will cruise to a victory but scar beats kentucky by 3-7 points
you just sitting in your trailer blasting sandstorm fantasizing about a sub .500 record again piggy?
Repeating ??? You mean 6peating don’t you Cockbite…?
Pretty lofty. I don’t see it but that’s why they play the games. 7-5 maybe but likely 6-6 or worse.
I disagree with several of the individual game predictions, but I can surely see UK at 8-4, or just as likely, 7-5. If they go 8-4 or better, then Stoops will surely have to be considered a legitimate program builder. Too bad the state of Kentucky doesn’t produce better talent.
Is this from knowledge about the Kentucky program or just another ‘click’ from you?
Who needs Finebaum when we have you?
Just the opinion of a college football fan. That’s what this open forum is for. I give my football takes and you just hate on Kentucky. To each his own.
Hates on Kentucky with a Kentucky avatar. It’s very classy.
Agree. I don’t see them beating UF but i also don’t see them losing to both Vandy and UT.
Same here. I don’t see beating UF (31 years of futility isn’t entirely out of my system yet) and think UK can hold against a rebuilding UT program on their home turf. One of the streaks on Vandy, Mizzou or USC will come to an end, but I don’t know which one and hope it isn’t USC’s cause their fan base produces the most salt.
Yep. If their team wins they “own” you.
GOUGADAWGS> Hardly. Even if USCe wins, they still have been beaten by UK more years in a row than any other program, including Vandy. That’s a mark they can’t make go away like our 31 year and 27 year long scars.
Won’t matter. They still “own” Bama from the 2010 game. Just ask them.
That’s one of the things that makes it tougher for a team like UK to build a program….we don’t have a wealth of HS talent in-state like most SEC schools. That’s a far bigger cross to bear than “being a basketball school”, which is mostly just a BS talking point for fans and crappy broadcasters. Ohio St., Michigan, Florida, Texas, and plenty of other schools have been successful at both sports. The difference is schools like that are in populated states with much better HS football scenes. Which is why Stoops was such a sneaky good hire from a recruiting standpoint….tons of connections in Ohio and the Rust Belt, so if you’re a good recruit there come play in the SEC school right next door and all your friends and family can still come to home games easily. He’s had some learning experiences as an HC, but after a few years in that role he really came into his own last year (and the year before to lesser extent) as well. Stoops is a really solid, good HC – I hope we can keep him in Lexington.
Good post, we could go on and on about KY not pushing their football program to a higher level over the years. I am optimistic that attitude from UK Administration has changed, it took a big step when they got rid of the stupid good ole boy athletic department board.
What bothers me is when top tier in state recruits do not seem to want to play for Kentucky.
A few names worth mentioning
Jederick Wills from Lafayette HS is playing for Alabama right now
Parks from Frederick Douglass HS is a Clemson recruit
Hudson from Scott County is a Virginia Tech recruit
The program needs to keep these in state player because as you said there are not that many available.
With the schedule being about as easy as an SEC schedule could be, 8-4 seems like a reasonable goal, with making a bowl a baseline. I don’t think it will happen, but there’s a path 10 wins as the only sure loss is the UGA game.
I tend to think that MSU and Mizzou are a bit overrated (not saying UK is better or will win, just they don’t deserve the hype they are getting) while USC will be brutalized by playing Bama and Mizzou in the prior weeks plus the streak is starting to get to them. UT might actually be a underrated, but it’s at home so they have a shot. I don’t see UK losing to Vandy, it’ll be a defacto home game in Nashville. As a gambler, I think in probabilities so it breaks down into something like:
Guaranteed win (~100%): UL, UTM, and EMU
Should win easily (~90-95%): Arkansas, Toledo
Should win (~75%): Vandy
Toss-up (~50%): USC, Mizzou, UT
Underdog, but a real chance (~25%): MSU, UF
Not happening (~0%): UGA
If my probabilities are roughly correct, that equals out between 7-8 wins with an edge towards 8. Even if they win 6, this sure beats getting blown out by WKU and winning 2 games a year.
Seems pretty reasonable to me. Author seemed to have the record about right but the teams wrong.
Yeah, but I understand what O’Gara did because you don’t just want to pick favorites the whole series. I just find this exercise to be a little more helpful pre-season than trying to nail each game and it’s really useful if you’re trying to bet over/under totals.
MSU isn’t better on a neutral field in my opinion, but the home team has a 5 game win streak going and they have home field this year. That said, this is spot on.
Last year has you guys really confident against MSU.Just take a look at the ones before that and you tell me if you really don’t think MSU is more talented than UK…we are always more talented than UK
Alabama – who we’ve beaten once in 90 years – can make that claim. You, at around .500 against us historically, cannot.
Mullen’s gone. You guys will be back to par soon enough.
Kentucky will be very competitive again this year. The defensive backfield will be our weakness against top teams.
11-1
Gamecocks will beat Wildcats this year. I think you are wrong there. Yes, 5 games win streak for Kentucky, but frankly that’s 5 different teams and 5 different seasons. This Gamecock team is by far the best Coach Muschamp has had with depth and (for now) every key player is healthy. SC wins this home game on Parent Weekend – the place will be crazy. Saturday Down South is sleeping on Gamecocks and they will prove that on field very soon.
Cry some more.
Two words… Joke Bentley.
your quarterback is pretty good
As soon as the question “Can the defense reload?” appears, I can no longer take the article seriously. Since when can UK simply replace 5 starters who went to the NFL? One being the best in the conference last year in Josh Allen.
Josh Allen was rated a 2 star by recruiting services. This time last year you and other pundits where saying, “Josh who?”
Can the defense reload hinges on this question – was the coaching staff good at teaching Mr. Allen, or lucky to find him?
Can it not be both? And throw in a guy that worked his arse off.
Who cares what his rating was 4 years ago? Josh Allen had 7 sacks and 10 TFL in 2017, so you are wrong, many football fans knew him. But the coaching staff was good and lucky – not every kid grows 2 inches and gains 45 lbs. after high school.
5-7 is more likely than 8-4. Wish all the best to UK, except against UGA of course, but 8-4 is too high. Good year last year, but I don’t see UK beating UF again or UT this year. USCe is the toss up game in my view, but I still see the cocks pulling a W this year even with UK owning the past half decade.
Good thing these games all end up being played. Thank God football is almost!
I enjoy watching rival SEC fanbases go back and forth. I also don’t think I was fully aware of the animosity between UK and South Carolina. With all the nonsense between Florida and Georgia for seemingly the entire offseason, it’s nice to be on the sidelines.
We know Kentucky gets at least 4 wins with that ridiculous cupcake nonconference schedule – Toledo, Eastern Michigan, UT Martin & Louisville – are you kidding me. I expect they pick up 3-4 SEC wins, but that’s about it for SEC team that lost the most starters from last year. Wildcats will probably go 7-5. And they are not beating Gamecocks (bye bye streak).
Cry some more.
Nice to see that a Kentucky fan knows how to copy and paste.
If the same answer works each time, why not use it? Especially a three word retort – brevity is the soul of wit.
8-4 but switch the Florida and Mizzou games to losses, and the Tennessee and Vandy games to wins. The games against us and South Carolina could go either way too honestly. 9-3 ceiling, 6-6 floor, but my gut says the Cats go 8-4.
They won’t beat Florida and then lose to Miss St. The Vandy game is a toss up too. And if they are good enough to beat Florida, they certainly are good enough to beat Tennessee.
I wish I was 50 years younger so I could go through the upcoming glory years of Kentucky football. With 31 losses out of the last 33 games against Tennessee, it’s going to be glorious to see us turn that around. I would be 103 by the time when can win 33 games in a row. Golly, and I’m going to miss most of those events. And with about the same number of wins against Florida coming up, I am so envious.
With one season of more wins than loses in 40 plus years, AND our coach telling us he’s never regress since he’s arrived at Lexington,hopefully I can be around for 20 years or so to enjoy what’s about to occur. Glory be!
I wish you’d just go back to Loserville.
Sorry Kentucky, but you just used up your last cheat code when you stole that game from us last year. No more extra plays when the game has already ended.
The streak against Mizzou and SC is remarkable, and certainly something to brag about, but it ends on both accounts this fall.
Cry about the refs some more. I enjoy the taste of your salty tears.
Being a Kentucky fan I am not surprised that you have grown accustomed to the taste of tears.
UK fan here. I haven’t shed a tear playing SOCO or COMO in the past 4/5 years. Facts.
So you’re saying that prior to 4 years ago you did cry when your team lost? Or do you still cry, just haven’t had to as much? I love football too, but a grown man shouldn’t be crying. Punch a pillow or something.
Wtf is SOCO or COMO
COMO is Columbia, MO. I assume SOCO is supposed to mean South Carolina.
UF had taken the UK game for granted the past few years. UK FINALLY got the win last year and should have won easily in 17 and probably so in 16.
UF will be out for revenge after being embarrassed at home last year. Don’t see it happening…
Cocks by 90 won’t even be close to much Defense look forward to sitting in my nose bleed seats on the 50 on the Visitor side hope im surrounded by UK fans this is going to be fun
yall say this every year…. Maybe this is the year for USC, but I doubt it.