Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Kentucky. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.

Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | Florida | Georgia

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Buried down the list of takeaways from Nick Saban’s retirement was the new reality in Lexington.

Mark Stoops is now the elder statesman in the SEC.

Is that significant? In some ways, it is. A program desperate for stability achieved it by giving Stoops a runway to build Kentucky into a respectable program. It reaped the benefits, too. To stay at the same SEC job for a decade is nearly unheard of. In the 21st century, that list is Stoops, Saban, Mark Richt, Les Miles, Dan Mullen and Steve Spurrier (that would eliminate guys like Tommy Tuberville, Phillip Fulmer and Houston Nutt because they started their tenures in the 20th century).

Sure, we assume that Kirby Smart will last another 2 years at Georgia. Still, though. That’s extremely rare. Stoops and Kentucky deserve credit for that.

But even at the most stable places, Father Time is undefeated. Stoops’ flirtation at Texas A&M was real, and for at least a few hours on the final day of the regular season, it seemed as if he was set to make a stunning intra-conference move. But then, of course, he didn’t. Believe who you want to explain why it didn’t happen. All we know with certainty is that Stoops is set to enter Year 12 at UK.

Does Stoops have a foot out the door? Or does he have the right set of circumstances to overcome some relatively pedestrian expectations — according to the standard that he elevated — and have one of those seasons?

Let’s dig into it with Kentucky’s 2024 Crystal Ball:

Yet another new-look offense is in Lexington

Stoops commented at SEC Media Days that “it wouldn’t be SEC Media Days if I didn’t have to talk about a new offensive coordinator.” The last time that Stoops had the same offensive coordinator heading into a season was 2020 with Eddie Gran. Stoops decided after 2020 to modernize the offense, which yielded the Liam Coen boomerang, the Rich Scangarello mess and now, the Bush Hamdan era.

After Coen’s second NFL departure, Hamdan came over from Boise State, where he led a top 1/4 scoring offense in FBS that finished No. 15 in yards/play. That’s the good news. Hamdan also is tasked with rebuilding a disappointing offense, and he’ll do so with a first-time starter in Brock Vandagriff.

Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!

Vandagriff picked Kentucky after 3 years of waiting behind Stetson Bennett IV and Carson Beck at Georgia. Is there any evidence to suggest that Vandagriff wasn’t worthy of the 5-star billing he received as a recruit? No, but he’s also a guy who has thrown 21 career passes and played 55 snaps in his first season as QB2 last year.

Then again, last year, we watched Devin Leary enter the season as one of the prized transfer portal additions as the former 2022 preseason ACC Player of the Year. There are no guarantees. The hope is that Vandagriff can get UK back to the place it was at in 2021 with Will Levis. Like any first-time starter, Vandagriff could have accuracy issues to work through. Can he elevate the floor of the UK offense with his legs? That feels like it’s possible.

Leary struggled to get on the same page as the talented but developing Dane Key and Barion Brown. Vandagriff’s ability to right that wrong is pivotal to the “bounce-back” discussion.

Can UK’s defense get back to looking like … UK’s defense?

Lost in the shuffle of the offensive disappointment was UK having its worst defense in 6 years. Like, by a long shot. It regressed by nearly a touchdown. It also finished outside of the top 60 for the first time since 2017. Against SEC foes, UK allowed 29 points per game. Kentucky allowed at least 33 points in 6 of the 8 post-September games. In 26 games in the previous 2 seasons, that happened just twice.

Granted, the Cats’ run defense finished No. 15 in FBS. You can thank Deone Walker for a decent amount of that.

But man, UK struggled to pressure quarterbacks and defend the pass. The Cats were:

  • No. 93 in FBS in passing yards/game allowed
  • No. 90 in FBS in QB rating allowed
  • No. 87 in FBS in 20-yard passes allowed
  • No. 69 in FBS in yards/pass allowed

That explains why Kentucky was No. 107 in 3rd-down conversion percentage allowed (43.2%). That was UK’s worst rate since 2016. Not ideal.

What does UK need to bounce back? A few things. Stoops talked about a more consistent JJ Weaver. That’d be big. If Jamon Dumas-Johnson, AKA “Pop,” can step into the middle of the defense and become a leader after coming over from Georgia, that’d be monumental. If Walker, who was leaned on heavily with that high motor, can take the next step as a pass-rusher playing closer to 325-330 pounds, that’d be huge.

There’s a lot to like (Maxwell Hairston is also one of the top returning defensive backs in America). Stoops doubled down on his defensive staff by not opting to make a single change. Will that yield more of a vintage Kentucky unit? That remains to be seen.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Southern Miss (W)

Much has changed since UK opened the 2016 season with a loss to Southern Miss. That was the low point of the Stoops era. Eight years later, a 3-win Southern Miss squad struggles to stop the UK offense, which gets a big showing from running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for the injured Chip Trayanum.

Week 2: vs. South Carolina (L)

Through 3 seasons, Shane Beamer already has more victories against Stoops (2) than Will Muschamp (1) had in 5 seasons. Say what you want about the Beamer-Stoops beef. This is when Kentucky’s backfield depth is tested and South Carolina’s improvement in the ground game takes shape. Rocket Sanders takes off early and UK’s offense has some 2023 vibes. Vandagriff struggles to get on the same page as his pass-catchers, which results in a late interception that closes out a gritty road win for South Carolina.

Week 3: vs. Georgia (L)

The Vandagriff Bowl will dominate the discussion leading into this one. By day’s end, however, Vandagriff will get an all-too-real reminder that while Kentucky gave him the opportunity that he didn’t get at Georgia, that UGA defense he faced the past 3 years was pretty darn good. Mykel Williams has his first multi-sack game of the young season and Smael Mondon forces a fumble of Vandagriff early in what turns out to be a long day for the UK offense. Georgia avoids Vandagriff getting the last laugh.

Week 4: vs. Ohio (W)

The bad news for UK? Ohio is coming off a 10-win season in which it won its lone game against Power 5 competition (Iowa State). The good news for UK? Ohio is bottom 10 in FBS in percentage of returning production with a pair of new coordinators. Cats roll.

Week 5: at Ole Miss (L)

Unlike 2 years ago when they played as top-15 teams, Kentucky doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain with that. For all the talk about how much Ole Miss will be better against teams like UGA with those defensive line additions, this is a matchup in which Ole Miss’ front takes over. UK can’t find an answer for Princely Umanmielen, who sacks Vandagriff twice. With UK still searching for options in the ground game, Ole Miss flexes a bit with a 3-score victory.

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: vs. Vanderbilt (W)

After the bye week, Kentucky comes out with a much better offensive approach. Vandagriff plays his best game of the young season and hits Key for a pair of highlight-reel touchdowns. Unlike the last time that Vandy visited Lexington and pulled off a stunner, nothing is taken lightly. Diego Pavia has a 3-interception game that falls short of repeating the 2022 upset.

Week 8: at Florida (W)

Stoops owns Florida. Period. He won 4 of the past 6 matchups, including each of the past 3 contests. In those 4 Kentucky wins, Florida failed to hit 17 points. A total yardage advantage won’t be the difference in this one — that’s a Mullen 2021 reference for y’all — so what will? Special teams. Barion Brown takes a kick back to the house and UK blocks a Florida punt to get a short field that Vandagriff punches in for 6. Florida’s continued special teams miscues prove costly in a deflating 21-17 loss heading into the bye.

Week 9: vs. Auburn (W)

A week after Auburn ran all over Mizzou, it runs into a brick wall in Lexington. Walker and Co. flip the script on Auburn. Instead of Kentucky suffering from post-Florida overconfidence, Stoops’ squad grinds out a hard-fought, low-scoring win. Key and Brown take turns slashing through the Auburn secondary late to fuel a 21-17 UK victory.

Week 10: at Tennessee (L)

It’s hard to see a scenario in which this ends up being the first Kentucky team — even one riding a 3-game winning streak — to find the answers against Josh Heupel’s version of Tennessee, especially in Knoxville. The tempo will continue to be a problem for a UK defense that’s coming off its 4th SEC game in as many weeks. Nico Iamaleava’s ability to move the pocket and extend plays is the difference. UK makes it interesting late with some impressive plays by Vandagriff attacking the Tennessee secondary, but the Vols earn a 42-28 win.

Week 11: Bye

Week 12: vs. Murray State (W)

The long-awaited Ja’Mori Maclin game finally happens. That allows UK to clinch bowl eligibility in convincing fashion with a feel-good win coming off the bye.

Week 13: at Texas (L)

An SEC Championship berth is up for grabs, albeit just for the home team. Texas plays with a sense of urgency while UK’s road woes continue. The Longhorns get after Vandagriff for 5 sacks while a healthy Quinn Ewers gets all the time in the world. In their first matchup as SEC foes, Texas cruises to a 35-10 win to emphatically punch a ticket to Atlanta.

Week 14: vs. Louisville (W)

Death, taxes and Stoops beating Louisville. Lamar Jackson isn’t walking through that door, either, though Stoops did beat him once, as well. The ageless Tyler Shough is overwhelmed by a dominant Kentucky defense that once again flips the switch for Louisville. As a tribute to Levis, Vandagriff scores a pair of rushing touchdowns and does the “L’s down” celebration. UK closes the regular season on a familiar note by beating the Cards for the 6th consecutive time.

2024 Projection: 7-5 (3-5), 11th in SEC

12-team Playoff berth? No

I’m already on record saying that I think Stoops steps down at season’s end. The grind of what it takes to get to 7-5 will be at the root of that decision. His frustration with NIL fundraising after a decade-plus of doing this job will lead to him moving on.

And you know what? That wouldn’t be the end of the world. Stoops is the best coach in program history. Period. Even if he does leave at season’s end, there’s no denying that the UK football brand is infinitely better than where it was when Stoops took over. Would it be a bit deflating to see the Stoops era end without that first trip to Atlanta? Sure, but it beats him getting fired after watching the program collapse.

Again, that’s just one projection. Specifically, that’s my projection. For all I know, this is about to become the type of season that UK fans have come to expect every 3 years. UK is the SEC leader in percentage of returning production. That’s with a new starting quarterback and a new-look backfield, too. Perhaps prediction the end of the Stoops era is premature.

But UK’s climb in Year 1 of this 16-team era is steep. It’s never been tougher for Stoops to have one of those years.

He and everyone in Big Blue Nation seem well aware of that.