Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series begins today with Alabama. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.

Well, this is weird.

For the first time since 2006, we’re going into a season in which Nick Saban isn’t leading Alabama. If we want to get super specific, this is just the third time in the 21st century that Saban isn’t leading an SEC team. Weird times, these are.

The question isn’t whether it’ll feel strange to have Saban on the ESPN desk speaking critically about the program that he led to historical dominance. That, we know will be true. The question is whether the Tide’s post-Saban world is more promising than skeptics think.

Enter stage left, Kalen DeBoer.

DeBoer’s presence in Tuscaloosa has earned him rave reviews so far. It’s not just that players spoke about his authenticity and easy-going nature. He currently boasts 8 top-100 recruits with the No. 2 class in 2025, according to 247sports. The question about whether a coach who has never had a job south of Carbondale, Illinois, can recruit in the SEC appears to be answered, at least for now.

In the more immediate future, DeBoer’s focus will be on picking up where Saban left off. Playoff semifinal loss aside, it’s easy to forget that Alabama won 3 of the past 4 SEC Championships, which included a 2023 matchup against 2-time defending national champion Georgia that blocked the Dawgs’ path to a 3-peat. The 30-day transfer portal window after Saban’s retirement took some body shots at that group, but there’s still reason to believe that the Tide could have enough to reach the first 12-team Playoff in 2024.

If Alabama is on the outside looking in at that, well, “weird” won’t be the first word that Tide fans use to describe DeBoer’s start in Tuscaloosa.

Have we forgotten how good Jalen Milroe is? Or is this all about the scheme fit?

I ask because the way some talk about Milroe, you’d think that he’s a first-time starter. Yes, he’s 1 of the 5 best quarterbacks returning in the sport. Yes, it’ll be a transition for him to gel with DeBoer’s scheme and to be on the same page with OC Nick Sheridan. Both things can be true.

You know what else is true? Milroe finished higher in the Heisman Trophy voting than any returning player in America. Milroe is the lone returning quarterback who can say, “yeah, I beat Kirby Smart.” Those 2 things should matter. Milroe might not have checked every box of an NFL prospect at the position, but his in-season improvement was undeniable. If he actually has a center who can snap the football — something that’s not expected to be an issue with all-conference center Parker Brailsford following DeBoer from Washington — that alone will give him a clearer path to success.

Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!

That’s not to say Milroe will be perfect from the jump. He needs to get better in the intermediate passing game, and low snaps or not, he needs to be quicker as a decision-maker. Milroe won’t be asked to be Michael Penix Jr. as a pocket passer, but he’ll be asked to do more advanced things than he did under Tommy Rees.

But at the same time, let’s not dismiss what Milroe already did in 2023. He already became one of the best players in the sport even though he got off to a horrendous start following a quarterback battle wherein he didn’t get full first-team reps. Milroe already became a matchup nightmare as a true dual-threat quarterback even though it was perhaps the worst offensive line of the Saban era.

It might take a game or 2, but it shouldn’t take that long to remember just how good Milroe already is.

Will these pass-catchers be better than the past 2 groups?

I’m not breaking any news by saying the past 2 groups of pass-catchers didn’t exactly live up to the Alabama standard. That is, the standard that we saw during the past 6-7 years when Alabama started cranking out Round 1 guys like nobody in the sport. But it’s not just the first-round prospects that the past 2 groups lacked. It’s the John Metchie-types that Alabama needs.

Can Germie Bernard be a Metchie-like receiver? I believe so. The Washington transfer was the 4th option last year, but the top 3 options are now in the NFL. Bernard’s versatility and familiarity with DeBoer will make him a glue guy for this transition season. He’ll also have to have games where he takes over and become a force in the passing game.

Kobe Prentice becoming a bit more interchangeable would help, as would Ryan Williams becoming an instant impact guy who flashes brilliance. Duh. That’s not news.

It’ll be news if Alabama looks like the group Washington had last year. It’s not just that DeBoer and Sheridan are on board. Washington receivers coach JaMarcus Shepard took the same role at Alabama. Can he be the difference after 2 years of mediocrity from the Tide pass-catchers? It’s certainly possible.

Whatever the case, it’s strange that an Alabama team that had multiple guys hit 800 yards in each season from 2018-21 hasn’t had a single player reach that feat in the past 2 seasons. Now seems like an ideal time to end that drought.

An Alabama defense without Saban will be … what, exactly?

With all due respect to new defensive coordinator Kane Wommack, defensive regression was always going to be the expectation for Year 1 after Saban. The question is how big will that that step back be?

Saban already expressed concern with the secondary, which suffered the gutting loss of Caleb Downs during the 30-day transfer portal window. Malachi Moore is transitioning to a more traditional safety role as the leader of that defense. But replacing lockdown corners like Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry is a legitimate concern, especially without a defensive back genius like Saban at the controls.

Alabama had nothing but top-30 points allowed units during the Saban era, and it was nothing but top-20 units after Year 1. Will this group end that streak and look a bit more mediocre after the portal/NFL losses? It seems possible.

It could be what defines Year 1 of the DeBoer era in Tuscaloosa.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Western Kentucky (W)

TJ Finley will face Alabama with his third different school, the first 2 were LSU and Auburn (he also went to Texas State last year but didn’t face the Tide). Do I think that with Western Kentucky, his surroundings are suddenly more favorable to conquer the Tide? I don’t. The DeBoer era starts off with a win.

Week 2: vs. South Florida (W)

Do I expect a repeat of last year? No, despite the fact that USF should be even better than the team that was in a 1-score game in the 4th quarter against Alabama. But as much as I love Alex Golesh’s approach with the team he returns, Milroe won’t be on the sidelines licking his wounds in this one.

Week 3: at Wisconsin (W)

Wisconsin isn’t at its peak yet under Luke Fickell, though I’m not sure that it needs to be in order for Camp Randall to be an imposing atmosphere. The first big test of the DeBoer era is a 60-minute game. But what’s the difference? The Alabama backfield. Justice Haynes, Jam Miller and Milroe all keep Wisconsin’s upset bid at an arm’s reach and prevent the Wisconsin faithful from jumping around multiple times.

Week 4: Bye

Week 5: vs. Georgia (L)

If Saban were still on that sideline, give me Alabama. Even UGA fans can acknowledge that Kirby Smart’s 1-5 record against the G.O.A.T. was real. But in the early stages of DeBoer figuring out Alabama’s 2024 offensive identity, UGA’s defense will stroll into Tuscaloosa with some bad intentions. It’s not a complete beatdown, but it’s the first time that turnovers doom the Tide. A CJ Allen pressure on Milroe forces a pick-6 and in a role reversal from last year’s SEC Championship, this time it’s UGA that holds onto a late lead and refuses to give the ball back to Alabama. The Dawgs win a thriller in Tuscaloosa.

Week 6: at Vanderbilt (W)

A slow start in Nashville for Alabama? It’s possible. It’s also possible that Alabama takes all of its anger out on the Dores and this is “Alabama, you’re next” 2.0 and the Tide win 59-0. Either way, this won’t be particularly close in the second half.

Week 7: vs. South Carolina (W)

The Gamecocks won’t be able capitalize on Alabama’s biggest perceived weakness — the secondary. Go figure that the past 2 South Carolina teams might have been better suited to do that. Then again, the last 2 South Carolina teams struggled in the ground game (both sides). The problem for the Gamecocks will be finding answers to slow down DeBoer’s offense. The first big Williams game highlights a comfortable Alabama victory.

Week 8: at Tennessee (W)

Will this be a battle of the best 2 SEC quarterbacks in 2024? That’s a fair question. Another fair question? Was anyone happier to see Saban retire than Tennessee fans? Nope. Even Auburn could beat Saban at Jordan-Hare every other time. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Vols will immediately benefit. Milroe will benefit slightly more from a questionable secondary than Nico Iamaleava, who has 1 costly turnover late to prevent the Vols from beating the Tide in Knoxville again.

Week 9: vs. Mizzou (W)

Alabama and Mizzou will play in several shootouts in 2024. That’ll make for instances in which their respective head coaches know that a 28-7 lead can disappear quickly. That happens with the Tide, causing Bryant-Denny Stadium to wonder if Saban can throw on a headset for the second half. But instead of it turning into a devastating loss, Alabama turns it into a pivotal, perhaps season-defining win. The Milroe Heisman buzz grows louder … as do Mizzou’s defensive woes.

Week 10: Bye

Week 11: at LSU (W)

Lost in the shuffle of the controversy surrounding Jayden Daniels’ injury last year on the Dallas Turner hit was how well Milroe played. He had 155 yards and 4 touchdowns … with his legs. Yes, LSU should be in better position to do the whole “tackling” thing this year. But Milroe’s improvement as a passer will be evident against the Playoff-hopeful Tigers. At a place where Alabama has historically had a ton of success (that predates the Saban era), DeBoer gets a statement win to keep SEC title hopes alive.

Week 12: vs. Mercer (W)

This is a big “Ty Simpson is next” game for the Alabama faithful. It’s also a “finally we don’t have to sweat one out against a Playoff contender” game for the Alabama faithful.

Week 13: at Oklahoma (L)

A game with massive Playoff implications goes to the home Sooners in thrilling fashion. Why? Oklahoma’s wideouts feast on Alabama’s inconsistent secondary. It’s not quite 2020 Alabama-Ole Miss levels of shootout, but let’s just say that points aren’t lacking in Norman. Milroe and Jackson Arnold deliver one of the games of the year. Nic Anderson proves to be too much for the Alabama defense, which finally can’t get that late stop.

Week 14: vs. Auburn (W)

No gravedigger will be needed in Tuscaloosa. Not this time. However, Iron Bowl does have some 2014 vibes to it. Both defenses are at a bit of a loss throughout the second half. Milroe and Payton Thorne trade touchdown drives, but a Deontae Lawson sack forces a fumble that Tim Smith picks up for a scoop-and-score that proves to be the difference in a 45-35 Alabama victory. The Tide get that all-important 10th win heading into an idle conference championship weekend.

2024 Projection: 10-2 (6-2), 3rd in SEC

12-team Playoff berth? Yes

This is a new era in every way. If Alabama were to go 10-2 in the 4-team Playoff era under Saban, we’d be wondering if the end was near. But if Alabama goes 10-2 in the 12-team Playoff era under DeBoer, we’ll be wondering if the end isn’t as near as some hoped. Perspective has changed.

Making the Playoff in Year 1 would be a major win for DeBoer for all the obvious reasons. He endured the 30-day window after replacing the greatest coach in the history of the sport. Would it guarantee long-term success? Not necessarily, but if a Playoff berth is fueled by one of the nation’s top offenses and it coincides with a top-3 recruiting class, who are we to say that Alabama is about to stop competing for national titles?

That’s what Year 1 is all about. DeBoer will have plenty of skeptics until he wins a title. That’s the job he signed up for. So far, all indications are that he’s well aware of that. How he handles failure will define his time in Tuscaloosa. For all the talk about how Alabama was this well-oiled machine that never malfunctioned, think about this. During Saban’s time at Alabama, he never had a 2-year stretch wherein he whiffed on earning a spot in either the SEC Championship or the national championship.

As long as DeBoer’s failures are a bit more micro in Year 1, that’s all that matters. If he gets to mid-October and realizes that Wommack isn’t the guy for the job or that the defensive scheme is putting the Tide at a disadvantage, that’s a different discussion. That’s macro.

But DeBoer has a roster and a staff that should still produce one of the better teams in the sport. Hosting a home Playoff game is on the table for the Tide, as is seeing a more complete version of Milroe. Those 2 things feel synonymous with one another.

Both should be in the cards by the end of this weird Year 1 of the post-Saban era.