Kentucky was said to be built for March; after upsetting Tennessee, are the Cats peaking?

Kentucky just about blew it in Knoxville over the weekend, but a win is a win and John Calipari’s Wildcats have won 5 straight heading into the SEC Tournament.

An 85-81 win over the fourth-ranked Volunteers on March 9 secured a double-bye in the conference tournament for Kentucky, which appears to be finding its groove at the exact right time — just as Calipari thought was possible. On Friday, the Cats will face either Texas A&M or Ole Miss with a berth in the tournament’s semifinals on the line. Kentucky hasn’t won an SEC Tournament title since the 2017-18 season, but the hot close to the regular season begs the question: Is this the year the postseason disappointments end?

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Tennessee and Auburn are the favorites. Kentucky would only have to face one or the other, not both. Either Florida or Alabama likely awaits the Wildcats in the second semifinal game on Saturday. Kentucky has beaten both already this season.

The Alabama win — a 117-95 beatdown at Rupp Arena — kicked off the 5-game winning streak to close the regular season. Since, the Wildcats have averaged 99 points a game and shot 54% from the field.

We can talk about the defense Kentucky plays. As the NCAA Tournament nears, you’ll see more than a few “more consistency on defense is the key to a deep run for Kentucky” takes. They’ve shown flashes of their potential on that end of the floor of late, but only that — flashes. There still isn’t enough consistency.

The Arkansas game jumps to mind, where Kentucky was able to force enough turnovers late to escape the Razorbacks. But they also gave up 102 points that day — the most by an Arkansas team against a conference opponent since March 2014. The Wildcats are 93rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They give up 105.7 points per 100 possessions on defense. In the win over Tennessee on Saturday, Dalton Knecht scored 40 points on 14-of-29 shooting.

Teams are going to score on Kentucky. They have all season. With how young this team is, a top-50 defense emerging in the postseason doesn’t seem likely.

If Kentucky is going to keep winning, it’ll be because of the unbelievably efficient offense that has been crushing teams.

“I believe in the team,” Calipari said during a radio show days after a loss to Gonzaga on Feb. 10. “We’re going to break through. We’re built for the postseason. We are. You may say, ‘Well, why does he say that?’ Because, if you can score 75 or 80 (points) in an NCAA (Tournament) game — and let’s defend a little better, let’s get a little more physical, let’s do it — you can advance.

“It’s hard to advance if you’re scoring 60, 65. … We have guys that can make baskets that we’re not running (plays), they can just go get a basket.”

Lately, that nucleus has been the trio of Antonio Reeves, Rob Dillingham, and Reed Sheppard.

Their last 5 games:

Reeves: 22.8 points (57.4% FG, 40.9% 3P), 2.4 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks
Sheppard: 17.0 points (61.7% FG, 58.6% 3P), 6.8 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 0.6 blocks
Dillingham: 14.8 points (46.2% FG, 44.4% 3P), 3.8 assists, 2.2 rebounds, 0.8 steals

Reeves has cleared 20 points every game. Dillingham and Sheppard, two freshmen who play big minutes off the bench, have been outstanding down the stretch of the season. Sheppard in particular has been unconscious from 3-point range, connecting on 17 of his 29 triples in the last 5 games. That included a 7-for-10 performance in the win over Tennessee and a 4-for-7 outing against Mississippi State.

Sheppard hit the game-winner over the Bulldogs, a contested floater in the lane as the buzzer sounded. Dillingham’s two-man game with Zvonimir Ivisic powered Kentucky over the finish line against Arkansas.

We’re seeing the young guys grow up in real-time. Kentucky has the added luxury of being able to lean on Reeves if the spotlight gets a little too bright for the freshmen in the postseason. Or, you know, it can pivot to Justin Edwards, the former No. 3 overall recruit who is averaging 13.2 points in his last 5 games while shooting 69.7% from the field and 64.7% from 3.

Off the dribble. Out of transition. Off a ball screen. Open shots. Contested shots. There are so many ways Kentucky can hurt teams on offense.

Kentucky gets 35% of its offense from transition this season. On transition shots, it has a 59.2% effective field goal percentage. The Wildcats are shooting 39% on transition 3s. Kentucky’s adjusted offensive shot quality ranks 21st nationally. And it ranks eighth nationally in effective field goal percentage. There are elite shot-makers on this team.

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Guards fuel postseason runs. Kentucky’s leading guards are surging into the postseason.

Reeves (who has topped 20 points in 7 consecutive games) is the veteran who knows how to get where he wants. Sheppard is an outside assassin and a more-than-willing distributor. Dillingham is boisterous in the way he attacks a defense.

The trio complement each other wonderfully, and there isn’t a defense that stands between them and the SEC title game that looks as if it has the tools to slow them.

Ole Miss is 149th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and has lost 5 of 6. Texas A&M gives up a ton of 3s, nearly 26 a game. Kentucky took 39 (!!!) in their only regular-season meeting, making 15 of them. The Aggies hit 12 of their own for a 5-point overtime win on Jan. 13, but they’ve made more than 8 in a game only 3 times since. And Alabama hasn’t stopped a soul in over a month on the defensive end of the floor.

Several in the SEC Tournament have legitimate things to play for. After its loss to UK, Tennessee will need a convincing tournament run to secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Auburn, Alabama, and Kentucky — all projected 4-seeds, per BracketMatrix — have the ability to reach higher.

On the flip side, recent history suggests that for high-major teams, an early conference tournament loss isn’t the worst thing for an NCAA Tournament run. Since the 2019 NCAA Tournament, 8 of the 12 teams that made the Final Four from a high-major conference (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Pac-12, Big 12, Big East) did so after losing in their respective conference tournaments.

What is Kentucky’s goal? Win a conference title? Get tuned up for the NCAA Tournament? Or will Calipari task his team with just trying to keep the momentum it has generated for itself?

Few are as dangerous as Kentucky is right now. We’ll see if the offensive dynamism continues.