After a disappointing end to the regular season and the SEC Tournament, Kentucky finds itself as the No. 2 seed in the Midwest bracket, with one final chance to round into shape, coincidentally enough in March, exactly when John Calipari’s teams tend to do that very thing. What’s the outlook for the ‘Cats? Glad you asked. We run down their potential path to the Final Four in Minneapolis.

First round: vs. No. 15 seed Abilene Christian

Yes, Kentucky is very capable of being up and down. But it’s a big difference between being a team that loses to Alabama or Seton Hall and one that loses to Abilene Christian. Yes, the ACU Wildcats had a 27-6 season out of the Southland Conference. But they played one Power 5 team all season, and that resulted in a 34-point loss to Texas Tech. Abilene Christian lost center Jalone Friday to a late-season dismissal, and without him, they just can’t claim enough size to keep Kentucky honest.

Chance Kentucky wins: 98%

Second round: No. 7 seed Wofford/No. 10 seed Seton Hall

Seton Hall knocked off the Wildcats in December in an overtime thriller in New York City. That said, Seton Hall has equaled the 11 3s they made in that game only 4 more times all season, and they struggled early and often in a mediocre Big East. Ashton Hagans would single-handedly keep Seton Hall’s Myles Powell from beating Kentucky again.

That said, Kentucky probably draws Wofford. That’s a much more complicated matchup for the Wildcats, as the Terriers were second in the entire NCAA in 3-point percentage, knocking down 41.6% of their attempts. Each of Wofford’s four most prolific shooters is at or above 41% from downtown. Wofford can give Kentucky some headaches, but at the end of the day, their lack of interior presence should allow P.J. Washington to bully past them in the post.

Chance Kentucky beats Seton Hall: 95%, Wofford: 85%

Sweet 16: No. 3 seed Houston/No. 6 seed Iowa State

The lesser seeds are decent teams, but the focus here has to be Kelvin Sampson’s Houston squad, which just went 31-3 for the year. The Cougars do things with defense, holding opponents to below 43% shooting and next-to-NCAA lowest sub-28% total from 3-point range. That said, they lost two of their past six games, and their lack of offensive punch may doom them in March.

Iowa State, on the other hand, doesn’t look like a tough matchup. They went 23-11 in the Big 12. True, they won the Big 12 Tournament, sweeping Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas … but before that, they lost their final three regular-season games and 4 of their last 5. Iowa State was nearly out-rebounded for the season, and while they have a team of competent shooters, they’re not scary at all.

Houston could grind out an ugly game with Kentucky, but playing in the SEC taught the Wildcats to withstand those kinds of games. K-State is hot … but frankly not all that good.

Chance Kentucky beats Houston: 75%, Iowa State: 90%

Elite Eight: vs. No. 1 seed North Carolina

Sure, there are other teams out there. A Kansas vs. Kentucky Elite Eight game would far from depress the NCAA marketing brass. The same could be said for Bruce Pearl running through his bracket like he did the SEC Tournament with Auburn. But North Carolina is the focus here.

When UK and UNC met three days before Christmas, Carolina had already lost to Texas and Michigan. That game was Ashton Hagans’ official defensive arrival at UK, as the UK point guard hounded UNC into 18 turnovers and UK outrebounded Carolina by 6. Since then, Carolina is actually leading the NCAA in rebounding. Since Jan. 12, they’ve lost only to Virginia and Duke, and in the meanwhile, they look much older and wiser than the team that Kentucky beat early in the season.

Carolina is still turnover prone, and if Kentucky defends like they did last time and can avoid getting destroyed on the backboard, they could pull this off. But it looks a lot more challenging than before.

Chance Kentucky beats North Carolina: 40%, anybody else: 75%

Final Four: vs. No. 1 Virginia/No. 2 Tennessee/whoever

If the road goes to Minneapolis, Kentucky has a puncher’s chance at a fourth meeting with UT. What a classic that would be! On the other hand, Virginia’s solid shooting, tough defense, and efficiency within the halfcourt make the Cavaliers a bad matchup for Kentucky. Kentucky would do better against Tennessee or No. 3 seeded Purdue than against Virginia.

Chance Kentucky beats Tennessee: 51%, Virginia: 25%

NCAA Championship vs. No. 1 Duke … or Duke … or Duke

Could it happen? The story of all stories would be defeating a team that drilled you by 34 in the first game of the season. Duke’s path couldn’t be a lot easier. There is literally no one on that side of the bracket who will challenge the Blue Devils. Could Kentucky?

Well, the Wildcats would have to show up — which can be a struggle for some guys like P.J. Washington and Ashton Hagans, who were non-factors in the first matchup. Tyler Herro would need an excellent shooting night, and Reid Travis would have to channel the ghost of Calipari yeoman Josh Harrellson, who matched up well with Jared Sullinger of top-seed Ohio State in 2011. If all that happens?

Well, you’re telling me there’s a chance?

Chance Kentucky beats Duke: 10%

Kentucky’s most likely NCAA result

The most likely scenario here is an Elite Eight matchup with North Carolina (that would be the third in Calipari’s decade in Lexington). The odds would not be on Kentucky’s side, but a blast of good luck, a kind bounce and a friendly whistle could set up a return run all the way to the title game. Gamblers should probably bet on a loss to UNC, but the brave … well, March or April dreaming really is for the brave, isn’t it?