At his Monday press conference, UK coach Mark Stoops ended the initial round of speculation about Kentucky’s starting quarterback. Sophomore transfer Terry Wilson will get the first crack at the starting job over third year sophomore Gunnar Hoak. Neither Wilson nor Hoak has played an FBS snap going into Saturday’s opener against Central Michigan, but the QB choice is interesting for what it says about Stoops’ philosophy and the identity of this Kentucky team. Several factors went into this decision, and make the choice more than a little surprising.

On one hand, Stoops is a head coach with a defensive background. It has been rumored in the past that he has shackled some of his offensive coordinators. For instance, Neal Brown’s offense at Kentucky looked considerably more conservative than what he’s shown as the head coach at Troy. Over the past two seasons, with Kentucky stacked in the backfield and struggling in passing accuracy, Kentucky has gone deeply run heavy.

Considering the struggles of Stephen Johnson and the UK receivers, the decision to run was almost academic, but the consensus was that Stoops is a coach who favors keeping it relatively simple and conservative. That seemed to be a factor in favor of Hoak, who is both more experienced in Kentucky’s system or more of a “game manager” than Wilson.

Moreover, quarterback is one of relatively few question marks on this Kentucky team. Defensively, UK lost middle linebacker Courtney Love, edge rusher Denzil Ware, and not much else. Offensively, most of the offensive line (which did lose talented tackle Landon Young to injury Friday) and skill position players are returnees. Unlike many past seasons, quarterback is one of the few mystery spots.

Wilson will have a relatively experienced and defined squad of players around him. Kentucky seems unlikely to expect its 2018 quarterback to be the second coming of Tim Couch or Andre Woodson. Again, a system where the QB was plugged into a squad full of component parts seemed to favor Hoak.

Finally, Kentucky is in one of its more stable periods in recent memory. Two years ago, Kentucky had gone five seasons without a bowl game and expected 4-star recruit Drew Barker to lead an Air Raid attack that would light up SEC scoreboards. Barker had one memorable half and then either got hurt or aggravated an old injury. The patchwork quilt of Kentucky’s past two offenses was born out of necessity and not convenience. But a run heavy, RPO-laden attack led Kentucky to consecutive 4-4 seasons in the SEC and seven-win seasons overall.

Stoops is the second longest tenured head coach in the SEC and is looking for a third consecutive bowl game. While his seat isn’t exactly cool, it has definitely been hotter. Again, that would seem to be a factor in favor of Hoak.

So why is it Wilson?

Maybe Stoops realizes that his opportunity to get over the 7-5 hump is now. Kentucky has blown the chance to go above middle of the pack in a wildly mediocre SEC East in both of the past two seasons. Stud running back Benny Snell is likely in his final season, and Stoops’ defense is a group of veteran players who won’t be easily replaced in 2019. Going 6-6 or 7-5 in 2018 might be admitting defeat in the long term.

If Stoops looked at his team and the schedule and realized that it’s now or never for an 8-4 or 9-3 season, the decision to go with Wilson makes more sense.

Wilson’s upside is higher than Hoak’s. He’s faster, and probably has a bigger arm, although not a more accurate one. The downside of the gamble is that he doesn’t know the personnel or offense as well as Hoak, and his scrambling ways may not play well in the SEC. But Wilson’s ability to deliver the exceptional play could be the difference between an adequate Kentucky team and a surprising one. Perhaps Stoops decided to gamble on what might be his biggest coaching decision yet.

Of course, one final note of caution should come. Again, two years ago, Kentucky was geared up to throw the ball all over the field with Barker. It never happened because of injury to the talented quarterback. After limping off the field on the first series of the team’s third game, Barker missed the rest of the 2016 season and played a handful of snaps in 2017 looking scared and slow. Johnson saved the day. History in the SEC tells us that whether Wilson works out brilliantly or not, there’s a fair chance that Hoak will see his opportunity at some point in 2018.

That said, Stoops cast his lot with Wilson — for now. Considering the factors in play, it looks like a roll of the dice, but maybe Stoops is just in a gambling mood.

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