It’s been circled on my calendar since it was announced.

OK, not literally. I don’t keep calendars for 3 years in advance. That would be psycho behavior if I currently had a 2026 calendar with markings on it.

But when we found out in 2020 that LSU and FSU would be playing a “neutral-site” series in 2022-23, I was admittedly more fired up for the second matchup. At the time of the announcement in February 2020, LSU was fresh off a national championship. Seeing the juggernaut up close in Orlando was calendar-worthy.

Of course, I had no idea that LSU was about to endure its worst 2-year stretch of the 21st century, which would lead to Ed Orgeron’s firing and Brian Kelly’s hiring. Nobody could’ve known 3 years ago that Kelly would sign up for 3 consecutive opening weekend matchups against FSU on Sunday night (1 of which was at Notre Dame and the last 2 being as the head man at LSU).

I also had no idea where FSU would be on the heels of a losing season in 2019. Willie Taggart was out, Mike Norvell was in and the post-Jimbo Fisher era was looking like an uphill climb. Three years later, FSU is a preseason top-10 team that will return a loaded squad attracting preseason Playoff buzz.

The same goes for LSU. Hence, why Sunday night’s showdown in Orlando is easily the best game of Week 1.

Here are my final thoughts (and a prediction) on that:

1. These teams are incredibly different than when they met last year

Last year’s Sunday night matchup in New Orleans was … a slopfest. How fitting it was that it ended with a blocked extra point. We had special teams miscues, dumb penalties, plenty of bad offensive execution and really no sign that we were watching a pair of Top 25 teams. Go figure that both teams finished with double-digit wins thanks to a bowl victory in Orlando, which is where this season will start.

But think about how different both teams are. Jordan Travis and Jayden Daniels were just trying to show that they deserved to hold down their respective starting jobs. Now, they’re No. 2 and No. 3 in the preseason Heisman Trophy odds. Both quarterbacks learned how to use their mobility to stretch the field, and it opened up their offenses. Travis did a better job of that in this game than Daniels, but now it’s a strength for both players.

In last year’s opener, the most notable play from Harold Perkins came via an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on a kickoff. Something tells me that the preseason All-American will have a different sort of impact this time around (more on that in a minute).

Both teams made significant transfer portal splashes, as well. LSU added defensive help in the front 7 by getting All-Pac-12 linebacker Omar Speights and Texas defensive end Ovie Oghoufo. FSU, on the other hand, got a major boost offensively by landing the versatile Jaheim Bell from South Carolina and Michigan State leading receiver Keon Coleman. All 4 of those guys should make significant contributions from the jump.

Kelly and Norvell have done a tremendous job addressing roster needs in the portal. One of those new additions could be the difference in the rematch Sunday night.

2. Why not having Maason Smith (suspension) could prove costly for LSU’s defensive weakness

It’s a shame that Smith will miss Week 1 because he reportedly violated NCAA rules by receiving money to sign autographs just weeks before the NIL era began in 2020. The explosive LSU defensive lineman suffered a season-ending knee injury celebrating a teammate’s defensive stand in this game last year. Entering 2022, it was Smith, not Perkins, who had all the fall camp buzz.

The issue for LSU is how his absence impacts the biggest defensive weakness — the secondary. If the hope is that Smith could be a Jalen Carter-type impact player for LSU, think about what the former Georgia star did exceptionally well. He dominated 1-on-1 matchups or occupied multiple linemen and freed up linebackers to make plays in the backfield. With Carter wrecking games, you didn’t have to send 6 to get pressure.

Without Smith, yes, LSU still has talent beyond Perkins and the underrated Mekhi Wingo, who earned third-team All-America honors in 2022. Still, though. LSU defensive coordinator Matt House might have to send extra help to get a pass rush on Travis. Getting home with 4 could be a challenge. If that’s the case, you wonder if the back end of LSU’s defense could be put in tough spots against the big-bodied FSU receiving duo of Coleman and Johnny Wilson. The Tigers were able to piece things together in the secondary last year. This year, though, there are more questions.

ESPN Baton Rouge’s Matt Moscona did a great job explaining why the late shuffling of the deck could be a sign of trouble ahead:

Yep. You basically lost everyone outside of part-time starter Major Burns. Denver Harris was a big 5-star corner addition from Texas A&M, but he has dealt with off-field issues that plagued his fall camp. LSU doesn’t have lockdown corners like we saw throughout the 2010s and even at the start of the 2020s with Eli Ricks and Derek Stingley Jr.

So much of LSU’s defensive success could come down to whether that front 7 gets home. Ideally, House doesn’t want to put an unproven group in harm’s way. Against the mobile Travis, that’ll be easier said than done.

Speaking of Travis …

3. Jordan Travis vs. Harold Perkins and Jayden Daniels vs. Jared Verse … sign me up

You have maybe the 2 best pass-rushers in America against 2 of the 3 or 4 best mobile quarterbacks in America. Excellent. That will make for some phenomenal battles. Strength on strength is the way this should be.

Much has been made about Perkins’ transition to a more traditional linebacker role, but if he’s still operating like LSU’s version of Micah Parsons, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to chase down Travis. One would think that’ll be more important than dropping him into coverage or having him play on his heels. Perkins was 2nd in the SEC in tackles for loss as a true freshman, and he completely took over that Arkansas game. It felt like we saw something special from him on a weekly basis once he started getting more regular snaps post-September.

(Drink every time you hear an announcer talk about Perkins’ ability to “bend.”)

Verse, on the other hand, had his coming out party in this matchup last year. He sacked Daniels twice to launch his first-team All-ACC season. Had the former Albany transfer gone pro, he could’ve been a first-round pick. Instead, he chose to come back and wreak havoc on quarterbacks for another season.

That’ll test Daniels, who was far too skittish in the pocket last year against FSU until the 4th quarter. Daniels ran the ball more than any FBS quarterback in 2022. It’s not that his scrambling ability needs to be diminished, but once he started to trust his second and third reads in the offense, LSU took off. Even just trusting that one of his talented receivers can make a play in single coverage was an issue at times for Daniels. In order for this offense to sustain drives against a confident FSU defense, Daniels has to have faith in Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, Kyren Lacy and Mason Taylor.

The quarterback who can keep plays alive and extend drives with his arm will be set up for the most success. There’s nothing more deflating for a defense than thinking it’s about to get off the field on 3rd and 12, only to have a quarterback scramble and find a receiver who came back to the ball. Both groups of wideouts are capable of that. Travis has proven to be more successful in that aspect, but perhaps an entire offseason in the Mike Denbrock/Kelly offense will allow Daniels to take another step.

Whatever the case, don’t assume any play is dead with these 2 signal-callers. Unless, of course, Verse and Perkins are barreling down the blind side.

4. Can LSU have an RB1 emerge?

It’s easy to look at the raw numbers and think LSU’s ground game was totally fine in 2022. After all, the Tigers were:

  • No. 4 in FBS in rushing touchdowns
  • No. 30 in FBS in yards/carry
  • No. 40 in FBS in rushing yards/game

But remember the part where I said that Daniels had more rushing attempts than any QB? Daniels’ scrambling accounted for so much of LSU’s ground game production. What we didn’t see was a running back emerge as a steady, reliable piece of the offense. LSU’s top 3 backs — Josh Williams, Noah Cain and John Emery Jr. — totaled between 75-98 carries and 375-536 rushing yards. Williams recorded the only 2 100-yard rushing performances. LSU already announced that Emery won’t play against FSU.

Kelly went out and brought in his former Notre Dame running back, Logan Diggs, to add some depth to that group. Whether it’s realistic to expect a post-spring transfer to emerge as LSU’s go-to back is another story, but he did rack up 822 rushing yards in a timeshare role in South Bend.

LSU would like to establish some sort of rushing attack against an FSU defense that finished 75th in FBS against the run and 97th in 10-yard runs allowed in 2022. Amidst that phenomenal finish to the 2022 season, FSU allowed 262 rushing yards to a 1-dimensional Florida offense and 253 rushing yards to a 6-7 Oklahoma squad.

It has been a minute since LSU was praised for having a nasty rushing attack. Sunday would be as good a time as ever to start that.

5. Are Playoff hopes dashed with a loss? No, but remember a few things.

Two things can be true at the same time.

One is that a nonconference game with a pair of preseason top-10 foes has major implications. Win and you’ll be hard-pressed to find a better victory for a Playoff contender, at least until further notice (Texas beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa would supplant that).

The other thing that’s true is that Playoff hopes aren’t necessarily dashed. Going 12-1 with a conference title is still Playoff-worthy, and LSU might even have an SEC loss to give, so long as it still includes a conference title. But for the loser Sunday, it’s going to be an incredibly steep — even historic — climb.

In the 9 years of the 4-team Playoff era:

  • 0 of 36 CFP teams lost in Week 1
  • 0 of 36 CFP teams made the field with 2 losses
  • 1 of 36 CFP teams lost in nonconference play (2014 Ohio State)
  • 2 of 36 CFP teams lost in September (2014 Ohio State, 2015 Alabama)

That’s daunting. Other hurdles stand in the way of the loser. Florida State hasn’t beaten Clemson in the post-Jameis Winston era. Without divisions, FSU could have to do that in the regular season in Death Valley (Clemson has 1 loss there in the past 6 seasons) and potentially in the ACC Championship, where Clemson is 7-0 with 5 of those wins coming by 4 touchdowns in the Playoff era.

LSU, on the other hand, might still have a loss to give, but think about this: The Tigers have never repeated as SEC West champs since divisions became a thing 3 decades ago. One would think they aren’t getting to an SEC Championship unless they go to Alabama and become the first team to beat Nick Saban in consecutive years since 2014-15 Ole Miss. Even if that happens, it would likely set up a must-win game against 2-time defending national champion Georgia, which blew out LSU in last year’s SEC Championship.

That’s even more daunting.

And a prediction … Florida State 28, LSU 24

I’ve been saying for the past 8 months that FSU is “the ultimate good vibes team of the offseason.” Good vibes won’t be enough to take down a top-5 team, but an extremely confident Travis making plays will be the difference. Instead of LSU forcing him into sacks and throwaways, Travis keeps enough plays alive by trusting his wideouts to snag 50-50 balls. Daniels does that, as well, but he can’t make enough of those demoralizing plays to keep drives alive.

LSU misses Smith in this one. Badly. It’s not that the FSU offensive front dominates, but it does enough to keep Travis out of harm’s way in key spots. That puts too much pressure on LSU’s retooled secondary, and chunk plays prove costly for Kelly and Co.

Unlike last year, this game feels like a battle of heavyweights. But just like last year, FSU gets the last laugh.

A thriller in Orlando yields the biggest win of the Norvell era.