Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with LSU. We’ll stay with the SEC West all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every SEC East team.

If you called the way LSU’s 2021 season would play out, congrats. Go buy a Power Ball ticket while you’re at it.

I’d call it a mess, but that seems too kind. “Disastrous” seems too harsh considering that LSU still reached a bowl game. Texas and USC reminded us that bowl games aren’t a given, no matter how much talent is on the roster.

Ed Orgeron’s midseason firing became obvious after the Kentucky loss. Strange, however, was Scott Woodward waiting until LSU responded with a bounce-back win against Florida to announce the move. Orgeron collected a whopping $18 million to walk away 2 years after winning a national title for the ages.

In stepped Brian Kelly, just as nobody predicted.

A 9-figure deal, a couple of viral dancing videos and one bad attempt at a Southern accent later, Kelly settled into Baton Rouge. He went heavy on the transfer portal after losing 10 players to the NFL Draft. What that means for 2022 remains to be seen.

As it stands, LSU is coming off its 2 worst seasons of the 21st century. The Tigers were unranked in the preseason AP Top 25 for the first time since 2000. Meanwhile, 4 other SEC West teams earned a spot in the preseason AP Top 25.

What’s next? I’d be lying if I said I know exactly the way 2022 will play out.

And if I nail it, well, time to go buy that Power Ball ticket.

LSU’s quarterback options are surprisingly plentiful even without Myles Brennan

We got news in the middle of fall camp that instead of Year 6, Brennan’s football days are over. Of course, it’s worth noting that Brennan’s announcement came on the heels of reports out of camp that he was clearly behind Garrett Nussmeier and Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels. Brennan’s retirement certainly hurt from a depth standpoint, which seems important with LSU’s questions on the offensive line.

But the good news is that Brennan bummer aside, Kelly has 3 potential options. Daniels is a multi-year Power 5 starter, Nussmeier is entering Year 2 and Walker Howard is a blue-chip true freshman. Ideally, Howard redshirts in 2022 and never serves as the primary backup. In Kelly’s perfect scenario, either Daniels or Nussmeier starts every game. The latter earned rave reviews throughout the entire offseason, so even if Daniels starts and can’t hold onto the job, there’s a place for Kelly to turn that isn’t a true freshman.

Kelly’s move to add Daniels proved to be a smart one. The counterpoint to that would be, well, did Brennan retire as a result of Daniels’ emergence and being third-string? That’s possible, too. But Kelly made sure that he’d have at least 2 SEC-ready options available with a true freshman in a redshirt year. There was no guarantee that Nussmeier or Brennan were gonna stay on board, and Kelly’s first viral dancing video was confirming Howard’s commitment.

Life at quarterback could be a whole lot worse behind center.

Is it too much to ask for a full season of peak-Kayshon Boutte?

Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. All I know is that I’m worried about getting a full season of the stud LSU receiver.

Why?

Let’s recap. Since Boutte last played in a game, he:

  • A) Had 2 ankle surgeries
  • B) Nearly entered the transfer portal until an NIL deal kept him at LSU
  • C) Had his new coach say in spring that he “learned his last name”
  • D) Lost the quarterback who force-fed him targets
  • E) All the above

It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”

It’s fitting that LSU’s best returning player has so many question marks. Boutte is getting 1st round NFL Draft love in the way-too-early mocks, and with good reason. He’s that good. In his past 9 games, Boutte racked up 65 catches, 1,036 yards and 13 touchdowns. He can dominate 1-on-1 matchups all over the field, and he’s elusive enough to make people miss in space.

There’s no denying that if he’s on the field, he’s got all the potential to be the best receiver in the sport. I just worry about those potential landmines that could blow up Boutte’s pre-draft season.

The transfer portal overhaul will yield ___________.

“A higher floor than it would’ve previously been.”

Is that a lukewarm take? Yeah. Big time. It’s also the only outcome I feel strongly about. It’s strange that we’re entering a world in which a new coach can bring in 10 transfers from the Power 5 level. That’s what Kelly did. That’s what he had to do if he wanted any chance of keeping his head above water against the toughest division in the sport.

What remains to be seen is how well that’ll translate. Will a defensive backfield loaded with new Power 5 pieces gel? Will someone like Noah Cain, who struggled to take off in Penn State’s offense, become a star in his new surroundings? And of course, Daniels is the biggest unknown. Talk to 10 people about him and you might get 10 different answers. We don’t know how much Daniels will have a say in LSU’s 2022 campaign.

But even with all of those unknowns, being active in the portal was an obvious move for Kelly, who will run a program differently than the previous regime. There was no guarantee that underclassmen who stayed would be fully on board at the midseason point. There’s at least a higher chance that Kelly’s hand-picked transfers are sold on his vision.

Kelly needs veterans like BJ Ojulari and Garrett Dellinger to be the steadying presence in a group that’s full of moving pieces. If not, the margin for error in the SEC West has never been slimmer.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Florida State in New Orleans (W)

Ugly. Look beyond the names on the front of the jersey. We’ve got a pair of teams that just wrapped up losing seasons. One has a coach trying to show he’s the long-term guy while the other has a first-year coach trying to figure out his own roster. I wouldn’t expect a whole lot of points (FSU ranks No. 2 nationally in percentage of returning defensive production). But I can’t close my eyes and picture LSU losing in New Orleans. A late field goal gives LSU a 17-14 victory to start the Kelly era.

Week 2: vs. Southern (W)

The over/under is 2.5 LSU quarterbacks we’ll see in this one. I’ll take the “over.” After an offensive line in flux endures a humbling Week 1 against FSU, a bounce-back week is in order. Cain and John Emery Jr. both spend some time in the end zone in a blowout win.

Week 3: vs. Mississippi State (L)

On one hand, LSU’s first SEC game of the Kelly era should yield a raucous atmosphere. Ojulari and Ali Gaye should have a nice advantage off the edge, too. But Will Rogers, similar to his showing at Auburn last year, puts on his cape and leads MSU back after a slow start. MSU’s stuffs LSU’s ground game, forcing a slew of 3-and-outs late. A 2-touchdown LSU lead turns into a frustrating reminder for the home crowd that it’ll take 60 minutes to win any SEC West game in 2022.

Week 4: vs. New Mexico (W)

It’s strange that it fell on the schedule this way, but a week after facing Zach Arnett’s defense, LSU will face his mentor, Rocky Long. He runs New Mexico’s defense with that base 3-3-5. In other words, LSU should be seeing a less talented version of the defensive scheme it faced a week prior. That leads to a comfortable bounce-back win.

Week 5: at Auburn (W)

I’m old enough to remember when the road team never won the Tiger Bowl. Then 2018 happened. Then 2021 happened. Now, I can’t use that as my basis for predicting this game. I’ll instead say that against a team with a quarterback who can evade pressure, Auburn’s secondary struggles for the first time all year. Auburn’s attempt to match up Derick Hall on true freshman left tackle Will Campbell doesn’t work out the way Auburn DC Jeff Schmedding hopes and LSU avenges last year’s Tiger Bowl collapse.

Week 6: vs. Tennessee (W)

Will we get a showdown like their 2005 game? It’s certainly possible, though I wouldn’t bank on it being a matchup of top-10 teams. But 2 teams fresh off emotional victories over rivals both look sloppy. Both quarterbacks get picked off early and turn to their legs to get their respective offenses going. What’s the difference? Or rather, who’s the difference? Boutte. Tennessee can’t stay with him in the second half. He explodes for a 200-yard game and LSU squeaks out a wild 35-31 victory.

Week 7: at Florida (L)

If this game were in Week 2, I’d be tempted to say that LSU’s edge rushers would force Anthony Richardson into some bad decisions, similar to what we saw last year. But by late-October, I expect to see a more developed version of Richardson. LSU struggles to get off the field against Montrell Johnson and the Florida rushing attack. Playing behind forces the LSU offense out of the balanced game plan it prefers, which leads to a pair of costly second-half turnovers. LSU continues its theme of losing immediately after entering the Top 25.

Week 8: vs. Ole Miss (L)

A brutal 4-week stretch for LSU’s run defense ends with a date against Zach Evans, Ulysses Bentley and that prolific Ole Miss ground game. The depth in the front 7 is tested, and Lane Kiffin recognizes that his experienced offensive line has the advantage up front. Ole Miss follows the game plan Florida executed the previous week against LSU. The state of Mississippi hands Kelly a Baton Rouge sweep in Year 1.

Week 9: Bye

Week 10: vs. Alabama (L)

After the way last year played out, there’s part of me that wants to throw logic out the window with this matchup. On paper, both teams are going to have an extremely difficult time protecting their quarterbacks with how well they rush the passer. The problem is that one team has Bryce Young, and one team doesn’t. Bama’s Heisman QB is going to pick apart a secondary with transfer portal additions galore. This ends up being Jermaine Burton’s best game at Alabama. It also ends up stinging a bit more when an LSU comeback bid is halted by an Eli Ricks pick-6.

Week 11: at Arkansas (L)

What will LSU look like by the time November rolls around? Will it have the same starting quarterback? Will Boutte still be making plays? Will a new-look defense with multiple Arkansas transfers have its footing? I can’t answer these questions. I can, however, put some faith in KJ Jefferson to test that secondary over the top with Xavier Thompson and Matt Landers. It won’t turn into a 40-pass day against LSU’s impressive edge duo, but the splash plays will fuel Arkansas and keep those New Year’s 6 bowl hopes alive while LSU clinches a losing record in SEC play.

Week 12: vs. UAB (W)

Six weeks removed from its last victory, LSU finally gets back into the win column in a big way. Brian Thomas and Jack Bech both go off in a much-needed blowout victory to clinch bowl eligibility.

Week 13: at Texas A&M (W)

I get the feeling that an LSU team with nothing to lose will play with its hair on fire in College Station. I don’t know who’ll be starting at quarterback for either side. But this is a game where LSU’s pass-catchers shine. Malik Nabers and Thomas put pressure on the A&M secondary, which doesn’t get a whole lot of help from its young defensive line. Instead of the Aggies winning and having a chance at a New Year’s 6 bowl, LSU pulls off the upset for the second consecutive year.

2022 projection: 7-5 (3-5), 6th in SEC West

#GeauxTigers

If you have a take about Kelly, chances are, you’ll have a chance to be proven right. An up and down Year 1 could still provide more entertainment and optimism that we’ve seen in Baton Rouge since that 2019 squad stepped off the field. That’s the good news.

Finishing with a losing record in SEC play and being all the way down at No. 6 in the West by virtue of tiebreakers looks worse than it is. If LSU beat the likes of Tennessee, A&M, Florida State and Auburn, there would be plenty of bright moments in 2022. It’s just so hard to forecast how this team will grow.

I have concerns about an LSU defense dealing with its 4th defensive coordinator in as many years. I worry about what the secondary will look like when that the front 7 can’t get pressure on the quarterback. I have doubts about an offensive line that, as some have noted, seems to have questions at every position outside of left tackle, which will be occupied by a true freshman. And with a Year 1 coach like Kelly, I believe it’s fair to wonder how guys will respond if LSU falls out of the West race in October.

There’s no more unpredictable team in college football than the one in Baton Rouge. For all I know, they’re on their way to making this prediction look foolish and Kelly will lead a talented team to a New Year’s 6 Bowl. Alternatively, it could be more of the same with a roster that still looks like it has major issues in the trenches.

My guess? LSU’s post-2019 whirlwind hasn’t stopped spinning just yet.