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Paul Skenes prop bets: Best bets for Skenes’ All-Star Game start
By Paul Harvey
Published:
Paul Skenes prop bets are out with the former LSU starter and electric rookie for the Pittsburgh Pirates poised to start Tuesday’s All-Star Game.
Just over a year removed from becoming the No. 1 pick in the MLB Draft, the former Tiger star has already become the first No. 1 overall pick to be named an All-Star the following year. He is also poised to become the first rookie to start the All-Star Game for the National League since Hideo Nomo in 1995.
While Skenes has been blowing away hitters with his electric fastball and deep repertoire (batters are hitting just .202 against Skenes with a .319 slugging percentage), this is not your normal, run-of-the-mill lineup. This is the All-Star Game with a deep stable of AL batters.
The hitters we know Skenes will face include Steven Kwan, Gunnar Henderson and Juan Soto at the top of the lineup. That gives Skenes 3 lefties to begin the 1st inning. That group is followed by Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Ramirez in spots 4-6 in the lineup.
The middle of the AL lineup is likely only pertinent if Skenes runs into any trouble in the 1st inning. No All-Star starting pitcher has gone 2 innings in the last 5 years, and it will be interesting to see if Skenes is allowed to go 2 if he happens to cruise in the 1st.
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With that in mind, let’s get to some of the most interesting prop bets for Tuesday night. (And don’t forget to take advantage of SDS’s Louisiana sports betting app to get in on the action.)
Paul Skenes’ Velocity of First pitch: 100.1-101.0 MPH (+290 via FanDuel)
While it is Skenes’ off-speed pitches (particularly his split-finger) that elevate his entire repertoire, I think it’s safe to assume the first pitch Tuesday night will be an old-school 4-seam fastball. Everyone wants to see the power pitch, and the numbers back up the usage.
Skenes throws his heater 37.8% of the time, and he has thrown it more against left-handed batters than he has to right-handed hitters. By contrast, he has thrown more split-fingers against righties than he has to lefties.
So if you feel safe that Skenes is going to dial up a fastball with his first pitch, all that’s left is determining how hard he’s going to throw it. His average velocity on the 4-seamer is 99.1 MPH this season, but reaching triple digits is not unheard of for Skenes.
With the adrenaline pumping, I think Skenes will eclipse 100 on his first pitch, and the odds are pretty good. If you really believe Skenes is going to blow the doors off with his first pitch, fans can get +400 odds on the offering coming in at 101.0+ MPH at FanDuel. Fans who believe Skenes will come in under triple digits can get +370 odds on the pitch being clocked between 99.0-100.0 MPH.
Paul Skenes to record 2+ strikeouts (+135 via DraftKings)
It’s likely Skenes notches at least 1 strikeout with DraftKings listing the 1+ K number at -350. Beyond that, it gets a little dicey, especially if Skenes is limited to just 1 inning.
Skenes is striking out 34.9% of the batters he faces this season, but this is not your average lineup. Steven Kwan is leading off for the AL, and he has one of the lowest K rates (8.1%) in all of baseball. Gunnar Henderson, a top AL MVP candidate, is more susceptible with a 23.6% K rate, and Juan Soto is between the 2 with a 16.4% K rate. (Aaron Judge, the No. 4 hitter, has a 25% K rate.)
Anyone feeling especially optimistic about Skenes’ strikeout ability against that lineup can get +1000 odds for the pitcher to record 3+ strikeouts in the 1st inning at FanDuel. If that happens, Skenes will be the story of the night and would likely put him in the mix to win All-Star MVP. FanDuel has Skenes at +3000 to be the game MVP.
Paul Skenes to go 3 up, 3 down in the 1st inning (+160 via FanDuel)
Can Skenes deliver a flawless 1st inning on the mound? Opposing batters have just a .251 on-base percentage against Skenes this season, so it’s not out of the question.
The AL has loaded up on left-handed batters at the top of the lineup, but that shouldn’t bother Skenes. He has faced essentially an equal number of righties and lefties this season, and lefties are actually hitting worse than righties (.190 from LH batters vs. .213 from RH batters).
The main difference is lefties have walked a few more times (10 walks to LH and 3 vs. RH), giving the lefties a slightly better OBP against Skenes. (.258 to .244 for RH.)
In actuality, the key to a clean inning for Skenes likely rests with Kwan. He is 4th in all of MLB with a .407 OBP, and he possesses elite bat-to-ball ability with a willingness to turn weak contact into easy singles.
If Skenes gets past Kwan, Soto is another major stumbling block to a clean inning with a .426 OBP, the 2nd-best mark in baseball. Soto knows how to work the count in his favor and will often not bite on any pitches outside of his sweet spot, so Skenes will have to work wisely to avoid base runners.
Paul Harvey lives in Atlanta and covers SEC football.
