SDS Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for Mizzou football in 2019
Editor’s note: Our annual Crystal Ball series continues with Mizzou and the SEC East. Coming Friday: South Carolina.
Usually there’s a certain narrative after a program like Mizzou replaces a player like Drew Lock.
He finished 2nd in SEC history in passing yards and 3rd in passing touchdowns. Usually, a player of that caliber at Mizzou would be at the center of the top offseason storyline.
But nationally, that’s been a bit of an afterthought for a couple of reasons.
Lock’s replacement, Kelly Bryant, has been a popular topic of discussion in college football after the way he left Clemson in the middle of the 2018 season to preserve his final year of eligibility. His decision to spend that at Mizzou quickly silenced the notion that the Tigers would feel a massive absence in the wake of Lock’s departure.
Instead, Mizzou’s offseason storyline has been about a strange NCAA punishment that included a bowl ban for 2019 as a result of academic fraud from the pre-Barry Odom era. That violation, which stemmed from a part-time tutor giving improper assistance to athletes, prompted an immediate appeal by Mizzou to the NCAA.
Mizzou has appealed, but as of now, the bowl ban is still in effect. There’s still a belief within that locker room that won’t be the case, but even if it is, how much will it impact this season? Will the Tigers follow Ole Miss’ path to mediocrity in a sanction-filled year? Or will the “us against the world” narrative be more evident than ever?
Maybe both. Let’s explain.
2018 record: 8-5 (4-4), T-4th in SEC East
The Kelly Bryant Show
There’s a trend throughout college football that I’ve noticed in the past couple of years. Grad transfer quarterbacks are going to new places and winning over locker rooms. With ease. We saw Joe Burrow do it at LSU. We saw Jalen Hurts do it at Oklahoma. I believe we’ve already seen Bryant do it at Mizzou.
It’s the little things that make the difference. When the day of the bowl ban news came out, Bryant squashed the transfer rumors before they could even pick up steam. It’s showing up to camp like an adult and praising the supporting cast at every turn. It’s extinguishing 1-day offseason headlines like Dabo Swinney not giving him a championship ring.
Everything about Bryant suggests that he’s ready to lead. He went to Mizzou in part because he’d have an opportunity to do that. For once, he’s finally not in Deshaun Watson’s shadow, nor is he battling it out with Trevor Lawrence to try and keep his job.
Mizzou belongs to Bryant, and he’s ready to be the face of the program in his final year of eligibility.
Can Barry Odom continue that defensive progress?
I was extremely critical of the Mizzou defense in last year’s Crystal Ball. I thought if there was one SEC unit that needed to show year-to-year improvement, it was the Mizzou defense. To Odom’s credit, he did exactly that.
The run defense was noticeably better. The Tigers produced a run defense that was 4.5 yards per game worse than Alabama in 2018.
There’s good news and bad news. The bad news is that replacing guys like Terez Hall and Terry Beckner Jr. from the front 7 won’t be easy. In his roller-coaster career, Beckner had 32 tackles for loss and served as a key piece in that defensive improvement last year.
The good news is that Mizzou still returns 67% of that production from last year, including one of the conference’s top linebackers, Cale Garrett. There’s more pressure on guys like former Texas transfer Jordan Elliott and Chris Turner. Mizzou needs to improve its pass rush to take another step up in 2019.
But Odom’s unit answered the call last year. That at least gave me hope that he can produce a solid SEC defense as a head coach and not just as a coordinator.
Avoiding the 0-4 start to SEC play
Crazy concept, right?
Mizzou started 0-4 or worse in SEC play in each of the past 3 seasons. That perhaps explains why Lock’s numbers were somewhat overlooked because Mizzou was already out of contention by mid-October.
Yeah, that can’t happen this year. If it does, yikes.
In Mizzou’s first 4 SEC games, it will face South Carolina, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. You can’t ask for a much more favorable way to kick off conference play. There’s a chance that Mizzou will be favored in all 4 games.
The great unknown is what happens if this bowl ban sticks. I tend to think that start to conference play dictates the mindset for teams without postseason possibilities. Guys can start thinking about their NFL Draft stock — Mizzou has a handful of players who will hear their names called next year — or they can mentally check out if there’s any sort of adversity that comes along (injuries, quarterback struggles, coach on the hot seat, etc.).
I do wonder about that in the event of a slow start. But fortunately for Mizzou, I don’t see that happening this year.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: at Wyoming (W)
Welcome to the SEC, Kelly Bryant. Your first task is strolling up to Laramie and beating a Mountain West team. Got it? Good. I expect far more Larry Rountree III than I do Bryant. A Wyoming team that ranks No. 120 in FBS in percentage of returning production struggles to slow down the Tigers.
Week 2: vs. West Virginia (W)
Timing is everything, right? Tennessee had to open against a West Virginia squad that returned Will Grier and David Sills V to a Dana Holgorsen offense. Mizzou gets to host a West Virginia squad that has neither guy with first-year coach Neal Brown. In a battle of grad transfer quarterbacks — the Mountaineers’ version of Bryant is Austin Kendall — I like the Mizzou defense to do the heavy lifting en route to a solid nonconference win.
Week 3: Southeast Missouri State (W)
This is the type of game in which Lock would throw for 8 touchdown passes and 560 yards. So in other words, pad those stats, Bryant.
Week 4: vs. South Carolina (L)
Wait a minute. I thought Mizzou was going to avoid the bad start to SEC play? I think Will Muschamp’s defense shows up ready to roll against a Tigers offense that still needs to work out some kinks. Perhaps talk of starting 6-0 or 7-0 has Mizzou a touch unprepared for the speed that the Gamecocks bring. In a game that they just can’t seem to get over the hump, the Tigers start in familiarity territory in conference play.
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: vs. Troy (W)
Maybe I just have a bad taste in my mouth from the way Auburn’s offense spiraled, but I have a tough time envisioning first-year Troy coach Chip Lindsey walking into Columbia and pulling off an upset. This should be a big game for Bryant and Albert Okwuegbunam coming off the bye.
Week 7: vs. Ole Miss (W)
One reason people are high on Mizzou is the crossover matchups. Hosting Ole Miss and traveling to Arkansas is as favorable as it gets. Mike MacIntyre should improve that Ole Miss defense, but to the point where it can contain Rountree for 60 minutes and win on the road? I’m not there yet.
Week 8: at Vanderbilt (W)
This is a sneaky good test for Garrett and the Mizzou defense. Game planning to shut down Vandy’s Big 3 of Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Kalija Lipscomb and Jared Pinkney will be tricky. Shoot, it wasn’t a successful plan last year. That trio combined for 398 yards from scrimmage and all 4 Vandy touchdowns scored in a down-to-the-wire game. But just as it did last year, Mizzou lets its ground game go to work and take over down the stretch.
Week 9: at Kentucky (L)
A lot of people seem to think that Mizzou starting 8-0 to set up a massive showdown with Georgia is a realistic possibility. I’m not saying it can’t happen. I’m saying it won’t happen. I think Kentucky will be more versatile and balanced offensively than it was last year when it needed Terry Wilson’s late heroics to win in Columbia. Wilson throws the ball early and often while Mizzou struggles to exploit Kentucky’s inexperienced secondary.
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: at Georgia (L)
Home game against an SEC East team? Yeah, I just can’t. Georgia’s offensive line paves the way for a comfortable victory and Mizzou suffers its first losing streak of the season.
Week 12: vs. Florida (L)
I know, I know. Mizzou has a 50-point advantage on Florida the past 2 years. That’s not a typo. Maybe Odom just has Florida’s number? That’s possible. Florida was vulnerable over the top the past couple of years and Lock was the perfect person to exploit that. I need to see Bryant make strides with his downfield accuracy before penciling Mizzou to make it 3 consecutive against the Gators.
Week 13: vs. Tennessee (W)
Derek Dooley got his revenge in Knoxville last year. What are the odds that he pulls off a similar 50-point showing this year? I’d say not great, but I still think a 33-point win last year would be an awfully difficult result to flip, especially with this one being played in Columbia. Senior day for Bryant and Co. yields a nice bounce-back win to close out the home slate.
Week 14: at Arkansas (W)
Can we call this the Bryant Bowl? Please? It’ll be interesting to see what the reception for Bryant is in Fayetteville after he chose Mizzou instead of Arkansas. I do expect him to have a big game with a season’s worth of reps to get comfortable in Dooley’s offense. I expect this game to mean a lot for Arkansas sitting at 5 wins, and I think it’ll be much closer than last year’s 38-0 drubbing. But Bryant twists the knife one more time and Arkansas comes up empty again.
2019 projection: 8-4 (4-4, 4th in SEC East)
#Mizzou
I think a lot of the people who are predicting Mizzou to have a 9- or 10-win regular season are underestimating just how valuable Lock was. Or maybe that’s not the best way to phrase it. Lock hit the home run play as well as anyone in college football. That can sometimes cover up things.
On the flip side, I think this Mizzou offense has a better chance of sustaining more drive-to-drive consistency. Bryant is better in the intermediate passing game than Lock. We know that Bryant can use his legs, and even though he’ll use them less than he did in Clemson’s system, he’ll still use them some.
But I still have a couple of concerns. I want to see how Bryant improves at stretching the field. I want to see this Mizzou run defense avoid a step back.
Most important, I want to see how the Tigers handle this bowl ban situation for better or worse. That can change the entire trajectory of the season.
I’m not quite at the “Mizzou is a sleeper East contender” level that some are, but all things considered, having a chance for a 9-win season in the first year of the post-Lock era would be a sign that Odom’s foundation is sturdy.
Missouri is a hard team to predict. The schedule is not daunting, but it isn’t full of cupcakes either. 8-4 may be accurate, but I do think the chances of them going over is better than them going under that number. Playing the worst two teams in the West certainly helps.
I basically agree with you. 8 wins is a reasonable projection, but 9-3 seems more likely than 7-5.
I think the Florida game is the one I’d flip. They’re probably going to be better than UK which is the other toss-up, but it’s at home and we really have their number.
Lock had their number, unfortunately he’s gone. The days of Missouri owning the Gators are over.
I mean, Lock was only 2-2 against Florida, and we’re 2-1 with other QBs starting, so I’m not sure that holds up.
2018 MU rushed 221/2 td and passed 250/3 td. 2017 MU rushed 227/3 td and passed 228/3td. Looks pretty balanced opposed to Lock carrying the team. Also, SEC record for MU FL is MU 4-3 in the Tigers favor. Lock didn’t get 2 extra years of eligibility.
Marcus Murphy would be the only example of a Tiger owning FL. Did the same to the Gators that Deebo did to the Tigers last year.
Has less to do with Drew Lock and more to do with your team not being as good or focused. The idea that you will win because Lock is gone is just as stupid as the idea that Mizzou will kill you just because that’s what we’ve been doing. It’s entirely possible this could wind up being a good, close game, for what the first time ever.
Mizzou is tired of bowing down to SC. I think this is the year we say enough is enough and we move past them.
Kentucky will be a revenge game. This could be really awesome game to watch.
Florida will be a dogfight and I think Tennessee keeps up in the first half but will lose momentum in the second.
Georgia is Georgia and will continue to do Georgia things.
6-2, tied for 2nd in SEC East with Florida
Mizzou isn’t moving past anybody in the SEC recruiting in the mid 40’s every year. You even lost to our back-up in the only start of his entire career.
It’s not personal, I have absolutely nothing against Mizzou, it’s just the truth. The ‘diamonds in the rough’ Pinckel was a genius at finding and developing are becoming fewer and farther between under Odom. I think he’s a really good coach, but without better recruiting there is only so much he can do.
1. Missouri is recruiting the same or better that it ever has. We have “moved past” several teams in the SEC doing this. In the past we’ve won the division doing this. Any idea that our performance on the field is going to exactly match our ranking in 247 is just not at all backed up by the data. Mizzou would love to pick up 5 star recruits, but we have a long history of overperforming recruiting rankings. Any SEC fan should know that. It will keep us from beating Bama. SC? We’ve been cursed to close losses against you guys, but if you think that can’t change, ask Florida, Tennessee, etc.
2. We lose in games started by SC’s backups. I don’t know why. I hope to god Jake Bentley starts this year.
3. Again, we’ve had 11 and 12 win seasons with these types of recruiting class. No guarantee that happens, but don’t act like it caps us at 7 or 8 wins. From empirical evidence, that’s objectively inaccurate.
Over the last 5 years, more MU players have been drafted into the NFL than from USC. MU produced more 1st and 2nd round picks than did the Gamecocks in that period. In that period, at least 22 guys are still (or will be in the case of Lock) be collecting regular NFL paychecks for being on the 53 man
That is not Alabama nor a shot at USC but I would say 247 or Rivals are merely proxy’s for future success, and not absolute predictors. You cannot make guys without measurables into NFL players. You can only make them better
MU is now 33rd (USC is 25th) in the Rivals rankings and will likely finish inside 30th come Feb
Dude, USC lost to MU with Maty Mauk at QB….at home
By that logic UT should be stomping us annually. And Florida. And just about every sec team. Dear God how did we ever win a division? Better coaching? No
There’s just not much to bank on by recruiting rankings. Ofodile is an example. I don’t see either SC or KY have a huge win streak on us ever. So both will end now. If there’s an upset it might be one of the team’s in Tennessee. And we won’t continue to thump Florida but I just don’t see Franks beating us. I see a 5-3 record probable but I also see 6-2 as much more likely than 4-4.so if a 9 win season says Odom is solid what’s a 10 win season say? It says Odom and Missouri are threatening the sec darlings and are more sec ready than most of the sec.
Oh crap! I forgot to factor in the replay booth referee. So that’s -2 minimum
I agree with you. Mizzou has needed a proven big-name head coach who’s a recruiting magnet. The buck stops at the top: incompetent cheapo administration.
Very incompetent administration. Jim Sterk just oversaw Mizzou rising from the depths of 2015/16 in football, hired away a successful power conference basketball coach that got our team from 8-24 to the NCAA tournament in one year, and oversaw successful rebuilds of the softball and baseball programs, while building an awesome new endzone and raising the profile of the athletic department after one of the darkest times in history. Total incompetence.
We really need someone to come in there and fix all these pesky trends like actually winning games and rebuilding our rep.
I view the Scar game more than any other as a case in point on Mizzou coaching. Odom has gotten Powned by Champ, and that’s on Odom/Mizzou, hiring Odom as a newbie HC with no experience in the SEC is a good way to get YERAZZBEAT. Odom thinks he’s “fixin that” as he talks up 4th quarter play in preseason. We will see.
I don’t wish bad for SCar because the East needs more than UGA to be good and if Scar is good then beating Scar means we are (finally) turning the corner in coaching. Scar, Tenner, FLA, doesn’t matter, the East needs more than just a couple of good teams.
He’s demonstrated the fact that he’s “fixing that”. I agreed with the hire, and still do. Pinkel was a special coach. But Odom had 1)Big shoes to fill, and 2) Started in the midst of a crisis on campus. Coming back from that ain’t easy.
8-4 is plausible. I’d take the OVER, only bc this has them losing all 3 of the “toss up” games – SC & UK (they’d be slight favorite right now) and UF (slight underdog right now). Guessing they get at least 1 or 2 of those. UT, Vandy & WVU are certainly “loseable” but theyd be 10+ pt favorites in each right now. Feels like 4-2 is more likely tgan 3-3 in those 6 games one way or another
I could see us going 2-2 opening the Conference season, beating UK and Ole Miss and losing to Scar/Vandy, or just as easily losing to UK/Ole miss and beating Scar/Vandy. We don’t have Drew the Lock but you don’t have Benny the Jet. We like to think our HC is getting smarter though that hardly seems likely huh, Kroger was once popular in Missouri, we’ll see if Kroger field will be too.
I don’t see Kelly Bryant coming even close to matching Lock’s numbers. And Mizzou cannot afford to let him try and run 15 times a game. I think they lose either to Vandy or UT to go 7-5.
Lock is second in all time SEC passing, I don’t see Kelly coming close to that either, especially in one season, of course he doesn’t really have to. He’s already beaten Auburn and SCar, plenty more SEC teams to beat. BWHAHAHA
Neither did James Franklin, and look what happened in ’13.
I am very concerned about this game. Cocks have Bama at home the week prior. It will be tough going on the road the next week. I saw something on this called the Bama effect. The stats were grim. Mizz is due some good luck as well. Those breaks tend to even out over time. This would be a good win if we can pull it off. I would not bet my life savings on it.
We avoided the Bama effect last year. I’m sure yall’ll be fine. Lost to Bama and came out to the shellacking of Memphis. Not the same level I know, but dont buy into it too much.
Weak A: at NCAA Compliance Office (L)
Maybe try to spell the word “week” a four letter word that is quite astonishingly easy to spell before making a “weak” attempt at throwing shade.
I would disagree that SC is a loss. I think Mizzou is competitive with UK as well. Time will tell.
It’s good to be competitive in a conference that’s known for being competitive, clearly we made the right decision to join up with the SEC.
This year in SEC East is so hard to predict. M0, SC. KY, TN are so close IMO with Fla not that far ahead of them. I could see MO splitting those 4, losing to Ga for 9-3. But my prediction is 7-1 going into Ga game (SC) but then losing 3 straight before beating Ark. 4-4, 8-4. Do that and win the bowl and thats 9-4, prob good enough to make Top 25.
“This year in SEC East is so hard to predict.” aint it the truth Frosh, aint it the truth, there is only once East team that stands out as a clear fav, after that it’s “any given Saturday”.
Tennessee and Arkansas are still rebuilding. Tennessee I cant say for sure, but Arkansas will definitely be better than last year. That being said, I dont see either of these games being losses. I’d give us a 70-75% to win. They’ll be good, but I’m not sure how good.
I don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that Arkansas will be better this year. Sure, most coaches improve in years 2 and 3, but that doesn’t mean that Morris will. Some coaches just suck. Not saying he sucks, but there’s nothing to go on right now.
I have talked far too much trash for us to lose to both SC and Kentucky. ;)
For whatever reason, I tend to actually talk less trash when I’m really confident we’re gonna go out and beat a considerable majority of the teams on our schedule.
I haven’t talked much trash this offseason, coincidentally.
A lot of these games are toss-ups. It’s almost always surprising how games actually play out, as opposed to how they are “supposed” to play out. Predicting from paper trail is no better than a crystal ball. That’s why the games are exciting!
Yep. If we know one thing from recent years, there will be one win we absolutely don’t expect, and at least one “WTF”.
Really, the only true upset this year would be @UGA, and that’s not happening, but if you told me we lost at Wyoming, beat Florida and South Carolina, and went 6-2 in SEC play, I’d tell you that would be an extremely Missouri thing to happen and not be surprised at all.
week 1: Wyoming will look much improved and defend the home field admirably but beating Missouri would happen about 5% of the time.
week 2: West Virginia only beat Missouri 22-10 when the coaching and rosters were at the absolutely most favorable they will ever be for WV. This is not quite the opposite but it is still a very good roster match-up for Missouri
week 3: Southeast Missouri State will look just like Southwest Missouri State did two years ago. They will hold their own when fresh but not so much as the game snaps add up.
week 4: Muschamp still has a little more experience than Odom, but Missouri still has the over-all roster horse power advantage
week 6: Troy takes talent anywhere and anyway they can get it, and it shows. Troy has beaten Missouri before if I remember right it was in the late 60’s, when Troy had that transfer running back that started at Alabama as a freshman (historical first). Maturity will decide this game. If Missouri’s upper-classmen can impose their discipline on the younger roster then Missouri will go to bed early and get up ready to do the expected.
week 7: After two years of abuse from the media OMiss will show they are still an SEC program, but they will still be a couple years behind the Odom recovery curve
week 8: Vanderbilt will be a toss up for Missouri because Mason will have them ready and hungry.
week 9: It just depends on the Ref crew Kentucky buys for the game.
week 11: It just depends on the Ref crew Georgia buys for the game.
week 12: It’s still not a favorable match up on defense or offense for Florida
week 13: I really like Coach Pruitt, but no part of the roster matches up well for TN
week 14: I really don’t like the coaching style at Arkansas right now, but I will give them credit for scoring a lot of points against Alabama last year….trouble is they got shut out by Missouri and Missouri’s DC is getting better fast.
i don’t predict wins and losses. the coaches and players will decide the clear differences in the match-ups and luck might decide a couple of these games. I don’t think Missouri was a bowl worshiping team under Pinkel, nor are they under Odom. Honestly, I think by December the whole roster knows that final exams will determine if they are ready to go to some job interviews or not AND that means practicing for an extra month… or getting some long delayed studying done. It is clear by Odom’s performance in bowl games he supports the roster in putting in the minimum prep. for the bowl and the maximum sprint to the finish line academically, hurray for Odom and the student-athlete and the University on this attitude. Having said that there are teams that can be ready for the big bowl and the big final exam, but they are not common.
The Troy win was in 2004. Was a huge win for us (Troy) with you guys ranked at 19 and ESPN airing it. Our fanbase has an expectation of winning the money games these days, though personally I’d feel better about this one if Neal Brown was still our head coach and VK our DC. Haven’t seen what Lindsey and his staff can do and don’t trust him yet. Please feel free to overlook us!
I think it’s our toughest non-conference game, including West Virginia. For me, I’m viewing this basically the same way I’d view a game against a mid-tier power conference team. The team had better do the same, or it could be a long day in Columbia.
You never know with a new coaching staff, but my default is absolutely to assume this is a 4 quarter game. If Odom and the team overlooks you guys, they haven’t learned their lesson from previous years.
“week 11: It just depends on the Ref crew Georgia buys for the game.”
LOL, ok, whatever helps you sleep at night.
OBVIOUS good field goal taken away from Missouri AT HOME last year. Replays clearly show the Georgia player threw the ball out of bounds before crossing the goal-line. Forward progress and whistle suddenly are no longer NCAA football rules so that three Georgia players can have time to hold a player up and manufacture a fumble six (then the ref blocks a Missouri player from tackling the Bullogna Dog that ran it back. Last snap for Missouri Crockett makes the first down and it gets denied on a bad spot. After all that the difference was 14 points. Clearly the crew showed up with instructions to make sure Georgia got a road win.
You really think y’all have the better roster? Why don’t you go back and look at the last 3-4 recruiting classes and then maybe rethink that . Y’all have a tough team and are good enough to beat us but I would have to disagree with that statement
It’s a fair dispute, but yes I really feel that way, and at the same time i respect the players effort and coaching South Carolina has brought to this series. Recruiting rankings are bogus.
Hmmm… I’ve got them 2nd in the East. I think they’ll beat Kentucky and catch UF late enough in the season that they’ll get them too. Gator’s had a +12 turn over rate last year and 17 of 21 returning starters. Thin in a rebuilding line and thin in the secondary.
USCjr. is a better/deeper team – but you never know. Will be UT and Vandy, Ole Miss and Arkansas. I think West Virginia will be a tough game.
9-3 feels about right with a nice bowl
“…with a nice bowl”
Unlikely, even if we get the ridiculous ban overturned, the SEC can’t help but match us up with a mediocre Big12 team regardless of good our record is. I am truly fed up with playing the Big12, and would die happy if we never had to again. (Other than Kansas, of course)
Someone in a big office somewhere has it in their head that Mizzou fans want to compete against the Big12 in bowls. Give me the Big10 or ACC any day.
How do we beat Mizzou but apparently lose a home game to UK. Common now let’s make some sense of this Mizzou will be really good this year and have Us at home while UK has multiple ??? So icant make sense of that the Mizzou game should be a close and great contest while our game with UK should probably be an easy win this season
“Barry Odom’s defensive progress” and other IMAGINARY topics as discussed by Connor O’Gara, careful Connor, you know we can always ship you back to the Big10.
Mizzou has a very strong ground game, inside and outside, and should be able to run, run, run all over South Carolina. My guess is, more than 250 yards rushing, and dominance of the clock.
Won’t matter when we pass for 600