Mizzou football: 4 numbers I want to see Connor Bazelak hit vs. LSU
By Adam Spencer
Published:
Well, it’s time to see what Connor Bazelak can do for the Missouri offense.
The Tigers will host LSU on Saturday in a game that was scheduled to take place in Baton Rouge but was moved to Columbia due to Hurricane Delta. When the 2 groups of Tigers square off, Mizzou will do so with a new starting quarterback.
After Shawn Robinson started the first 2 games for coach Eli Drinkwitz and the Tigers, redshirt freshman Connor Bazelak will get the start Saturday.
Beating LSU — the No. 17 team in the country — won’t be easy, but win or lose, there are some ways we’ll be able to tell if Bazelak’s performance was a success or not.
So, let’s take a look at 4 numbers I want to see Bazelak hit against LSU. If he can do these 4 things, Mizzou’s offense should continue to improve under him this season:
2 touchdown passes
Let’s start with a simple one. Bazelak has 0 touchdown passes through 2 games (limited action against Alabama and much more time on the field against Tennessee). He ran for a touchdown against the Crimson Tide, but the offense didn’t do much at all against the Vols.
How should we measure success against LSU? Simple. Get the ball in the end zone. Bazelak has talented weapons in WRs Jalen Knox and Damon Hazelton (among others), a dangerous pass-catching running back in Tyler Badie and a big tight end in Daniel Parker Jr., who can be a problem in the red zone.
If the Tigers are going to win multiple games this year, the offense has to score more than 20 points. Scoring 19 against Alabama and 12 against Tennessee isn’t going to cut it. It’s time for Bazelak to get the ball in the end zone via the air, no matter how tough that LSU secondary is. Speaking of the LSU secondary …
65% completion rate
This has as much to do with Eli Drinkwitz’s play-calling as it does with Bazelak. LSU has Derek Stingley Jr. lurking at one of the cornerback positions, and he is perhaps the best defensive back in the country.
Drinkwitz might be wise to scheme up other ways to get receivers the ball that don’t involve testing Stingley. Oh, and the receivers need to be more consistent, too. There have been too many drops this year on passes from Bazelak and Robinson.
However, Bazelak can help his case by being more accurate with his throws and making the right reads. He’s only completed 20-of-35 pass attempts (57.1%) this year. That has to take a step forward now that he’s the starter.
0 interceptions
Stingley is a game-changing corner. JaCoby Stevens is a dynamic safety. Bazelak has to keep the ball away from those guys.
He threw a pick against Tennessee on the first drive of the 4th quarter. Mizzou had built some momentum, trailing 28-12 and marching down the field. The Tigers were almost in the red zone when Bazelak threw what proved to be a back-breaking interception to Theo Jackson.
From there, the Tigers were toast. With a new offense trying to find its footing, Bazelak will have to take care of the ball at all costs against LSU.
4 pass plays of 20+ yards
Mizzou ranks No. 12 in the SEC with 17 pass plays of 10 or more yards through 2 games. But 8 of those passes have gone for 20-plus yards. That ranks tied for 6th in the SEC.
That means the Tigers do have some playmakers. I mentioned a few, and getting the ball in their hands is going to be critical to the team’s success moving forward.
Bazelak has a strong arm. It’s not at Drew Lock’s level, but he should be able to connect on a couple of deep shots each game. Get Jalen Knox in single coverage and let him make a play.
Also, Badie doesn’t need to go deep to make big plays. Run a couple of screens for him and let him use his shiftiness to rack up some yards after the catch.
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
