Devin Booker poured in 42 points on 17-28 shooting in Game 4, but the Phoenix Suns could not make a nine-point fourth quarter lead hold up, losing the game and, with it, their lead in the series. Now, the scene shifts back to Phoenix for Game 5 Saturday night for the first game of what essentially has become a three game series.

Let’s take a look at our 3 best bets for Game 5 of the NBA Finals between the Bucks and Suns.

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Giannis Antetokounmpo continued to shine for Milwaukee in the Game 4 win, posting 26 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists.

His night was highlighted with a game-changing block on a lob to Deandre Ayton in the final minutes. However, it was Khris Middleton who stole the show in the victory, pouring in 40 points to go with six rebounds and four assists.

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3 Best Bets for Bucks vs. Suns (NBA Finals Game 5

Best Games For Game 5
Pat Connaughton Over 1.5 Made Threes (DraftKings Sportsbook -120)
Devin Booker Under 38.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)
Chris Paul Over 8.5 Assists (DraftKings Sportsbook -120)

This series, which has been defined by monster individual performances on two well-rounded teams, will likely hinge upon the Game 5 result. A win for the Phoenix Suns would leave them needing just one victory to claim the title, knowing they still have a potential Game 7 at home in their back pockets. Meanwhile, a Bucks win would send them home for Game 6 with the chance to wrap up the series at Fiserv Forum where they have been dominant this postseason.

Pat Connaughton Over 1.5 Made Threes (DraftKings Sportsbook -120)

It’s hard to pass up this prop betting option, as Connaughton has been earning starter minutes off the bench for the Bucks all series long. He has played 28 or more minutes in each of his last five games, including 32 minutes Wednesday night in Game 4.

Connaughton’s Game 4 included 11 points and nine rebounds to go with a team best +21 +/- differential. That number was 11 points better than any of his teammates and will surely not be overlooked by Coach Budenholzer when it comes to doling out minutes in tonight’s crucial Game 5.

Connaughton made three 3-pointers in Game 4, his fifth straight with multiple made threes, aligning perfectly with the aforementioned bump in minutes. And, with all the stars surrounding him on the court, he is likely to get several open looks from beyond the arc tonight, as well. After all, he has gotten off at least four long range efforts in each of the last six games, averaging 5.7 attempts per game.

 

The Milwaukee wing made multiple threes in eight of the 13 games this season in which he logged 30 or more minutes of play (61.5%), a number we fully expect him to earn tonight. He should be relied upon heavily given that he was one of just three Bucks to make a deep ball in Game 4 and the only one besides Middleton to make multiple triples.

Connaughton went 3-7 from long range (42.9%) on his own in Game 4, while the rest of his teammates went just 4-22 (18.2%).

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Chris Paul Over 8.5 Assists (DraftKings Sportsbook -120)

Chris Paul has clearly been affected by Milwaukee’s adjustments in Games 3 and 4. Jrue Holiday began picking Paul up the length of the court in Game 3 and the result has been 14.5 points, two rebounds, eight assists, and 4.5 turnovers per game since.

The result was two losses for Phoenix and their point guard, who is averaging 18.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 8.6 assists, just 2.2 turnovers per game in the playoffs, knows he is largely to blame. Paul’s shot attempts dipped to 14 and 13 in Games 3 and 4, respectively, marking the first time he put up less than 19 efforts since Game 3 of the Denver series.

While we do expect that shot total to go back up tonight, we think the more aggressive offensive approach from the future Hall of Famer should also open up enough passing lanes for him to eclipse this assist number.

This is a series-changing game for Phoenix and Paul has been consistently putting up solid assist numbers in those spots during the postseason. He posted nine and 12 assists in Games 4 and 6 of the Lakers series, respectively, and 11 and 15 in the first two games against Denver. He also posted eight assists in the closeout game against the Clippers, and nine and eight in the Games 1 and 2 wins against Milwaukee, respectively.

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Paul has tallied at least seven helpers in each of his last 13 playoff games, including six efforts that eclipsed this prop’s total. This postseason success was on the heels of 41 of 70 regular season games with nine or more assists (58.6%), despite playing nearly six less minutes per game than he has averaged in this series. With that in mind, it’s worth pointing out the six other regular season games where Paul dropped exactly eight dimes in games where he played less minutes than his average during this series.

Devin Booker Under 38.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)

Booker covered this prop number with points alone in Game 4, but we expect a full step backwards in Game 5.

First, Milwaukee has the defensive talent to leave Holiday on Paul and still send quality bodies Booker’s way. He will certainly draw plenty of attention after his Game 4 explosion.

Next, there may be a bit of extra scrutiny on Booker in this matchup after the officiating crew was called out for missing an apparent sixth foul call on the Suns’ star in Game 4.

Booker has a history of mediocre performances following 40+ point outbursts this season. He went for 20 points, four rebounds, and five assists after his 40 point outing in Game 1 against the Clippers this postseason.

He also had 21 points, four rebounds, and eight assists in Game 1 against Denver after dropping 47 to close out the Lakers. During the regular season, he averaged 32.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in the games after his two 40+ point efforts.

Booker has failed to top this prop’s total in 13 of his 20 playoff games this season (65.0%), averaging 37.6 total points, rebounds, and assists since the postseason began. During the regular season, where he averaged 34.1 combined points-rebounds-assists, he only topped this prop’s number 21 of 67 times (31.3%).

Excluding Game 1s, in three prior games this postseason in which the Suns were even or trailing in the series, Booker averaged just 33.3 combined points, rebounds, and assists, failing to score more than 30 points in each.

Booker has also failed to eclipse this prop’s number in any of the three playoff games after attempting 26 or more shots in the previous outing. That extends back into the regular season, as well, as the Suns’ guard failed to do enough to cash this prop in any of the last five tries after a 26+ shot night, never topping 39 combined points-rebounds-assists in that role at any point during the season. Booker’s average combined points, rebounds, and assists in those eight instances just mentioned was a paltry 31.3.

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