It’s time for a week of pure chaos.
In an SEC that felt like Georgia, a trio of strugglers, and then 12 teams capable of rising or falling on any given day, the SEC Tournament in Hoover promises to be unpredictable. Against that backdrop, a pure “Who’s gonna win the crown?” guess feels impossible.
So indulge a trio of possibilities — one very obvious, one an almost as obvious, and one a mild surprise… with the case for each.
The obvious pick
Surprise, surprise, but Georgia is probably going to win the SEC Tournament.
Why? First, that double-bye takes the tournament to the duration of a weekend series for UGA, albeit with an extra day strung in there. Second, there’s the whole 147 home runs thing. No, the team that homers most doesn’t always win… but it certainly doesn’t hurt. It’s worth noting that Georgia’s offense is more than just the longball, as well. The .302 that Georgia hit in conference play is 21 points ahead of the second place team… and the Bulldogs hit on over 90% of their stolen base attempts in conference play (40-for-44).
The pitching? Well, it’s good enough. Georgia was 10th in the SEC in ERA, but some of that was a result of lopsided nonconference games that led to sloppiness and deep depth pieces getting more innings than on most teams. UGA was 7th in the SEC in ERA in conference play, and that’s perfectly good enough to outlast this bracket. Florida is the only SEC team to win its series against Georgia, and that matchup would require a UF upset in the quarterfinals. Texas or Auburn could make things interesting the final, but Georgia is the obvious pick.
Will Georgia win the SEC Tournament crown in Hoover? Here’s the latest Kalshi market:
The semi-obvious pick
If it’s not Georgia, then who? Again, that double-bye to Thursday is massive. Texas A&M comes in having played some less-than-ideal baseball across its last few series weekends, so let’s look elsewhere. Texas is certainly a legitimate contender, but there’s a hidden giant lurking there…. so that leaves Alabama. The Tide finished strong, winning 3 straight series matchups to walk in with some confidence. They’ve got something of the home-field advantage in their favor in Hoover.
The receipt for the Tide may be pitching and speed. Justin Lebron has had a mildly disappointing season, but he’s 35-for-37 on stolen base attempts. Bryce Fowler and Brennan Holt are each 15-for-17. The team is 82-for-90, and can use speed to manufacture runs if the bats aren’t on pace. Meanwhile, Alabama quietly has the 3rd-best ERA in SEC play. Defense has been spotty, but Alabama has closed strong, rising to 12th in fielding percentage and errors in the league (which sounds awful, but the Tide spent much of the year in the cellar).
Bama potentially has to go through Florida (who it swept earlier this year) and Georgia (who it didn’t play). On the other side of the bracket, Bama lost a competitive series with Texas, didn’t play A&M, and swept Auburn. It doesn’t stack up badly for the Tide.
The suprise pick
Let’s leave the top 4 alone and assume that something unusual happens in Hoover. Again, this year — go figure. Who’s an off the beaten path title pick?
Well, actually it’s not that far off the beaten path, as Auburn is sitting at a 53% chance at a College World Series shot on Kalshi (second in the conference behind only Texas at 54%). But as a humble No. 6 seed, Auburn isn’t exactly a sure thing… but it has a solid shot.
Pitching, pitching, pitching — that’s the story for the Tigers. Auburn doesn’t just lead the SEC in ERA in conference play — it leads by almost half a run per 9 innings over second-place Texas. The Tigers walked the fewest hitters in league action (just 84 in 256 2/3 innings). The offense is good not great, but one noteworthy point is that Auburn puts the ball in play. Its 245 strikeouts at the plate in conference action is significantly better than the league numbers (21 less than 2nd-place Texas).
Auburn’s potential path is through Oklahoma (who it beat 2-of-3 in the last weekend of April), Texas A&M (who it beat 2-of-3 on the road the following weekend), and then Texas, who it played back in March and came within a 1-run loss of claiming that series. A finale against Georgia or Alabama would dip into pitching depth a bit, but again, that’s Auburn’s strength. Sure, the Tigers are 1-5 against those 2 teams, but in 1 game, the Tigers could be the mild upset of Hoover.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
