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Alabama will look to sweep the season series against Auburn on Wednesday night.
The Crimson Tide have won 3 games in a row in this series, including a 79-75 victory from late last month in Tuscaloosa. Overall, Alabama has won 4 games in a row entering this matchup. Auburn has played well recently too, particularly at home. The Tigers are undefeated in Neville Arena this season and are hoping to continue that trend on Wednesday night vs. the Tide.
The result of this game figures to have major implications on the SEC title race. Alabama is currently in 1st place with a 8-1 record. Auburn isn’t far behind at 7-2, and could tie Alabama for the top spot with a win on Wednesday night.
The stakes are very high for both of these ascendent programs. Let’s break down the matchup:
Alabama vs. Auburn Betting Odds
Spread: Auburn -5.5 (DraftKings)
Total: Over/Under 164 points (DraftKings)
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Betting trends to know for Alabama
Alabama is…
- 14-8 against the spread
- 3-2 against the spread on the road
- 2-3 against the spread as an underdog
- 2-1 against the spread as a road underdog
- 7-2 against the spread in SEC Games
Alabama has been great against the number this season, but a lot of its profitability has come in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide are 10-2 against the spread at home — a record that includes Alabama’s victory over this Auburn team back on Jan. 24. There’s a much smaller sample size on the road. Alabama has covered the spread in 7 of its last 8 games.
Betting trends to know for Auburn
Auburn is…
- 14-8 against the spread
- 7-4 against the spread at home
- 14-7 against the spread as a favorite
- 7-2 against the spread in SEC games
Auburn has been excellent against the spread in this spot. The Tigers are the second-most profitable team in the SEC to bet on at home this season (7-4, 63.6%) and as a favorite (14-7, 66.7%). Overall, Auburn is 7-2 against the spread in its last 9 games.
3 notes for the game
Lessons from the first meeting
When these teams met late last month, it was Alabama who walked away with a 4-point win at home. However, Auburn’s defense did well to slow down the Tide’s efficient attack.
The Crimson Tide shot just 39.5% from 2-point range and 36.7% from downtown — both below their season averages. Aside from Sears, Alabama’s entire team combined to go 7-of-22 from inside the arc. If not for a hot stretch from 3-point land in the first half from Rylan Griffen, Alabama would have been in serious trouble in that game.
Even with Griffen’s 5-of-10 performance from long range, Auburn still had a chance to win. But the Tigers couldn’t execute offensively as they made just 5-of-25 from 3-point land. The offense was still generating good shots, however, just as it has all season. Auburn’s offense is also amongst the best in the country, ranking No. 11 on KenPom, No. 12 on BartTorvik and No. 13 on ShotQuality.
Broome was especially good in this game as he chipped in 25 points, 14 rebounds and 5 blocks. If Alabama can’t find a way to deal with him in a more effective way this time around, it could be a long night for the Tide.
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Alabama’s 3-point shooting
On paper, Alabama looks like one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. The Tide are shooting 38.2% from 3-point land on the season, which ranks 16th nationally.
However, the Tide have not been the same team from long range on the road in SEC play. Here’s how the Tide have fared from downtown in 4 SEC road games so far in 2023-24:
- At Vanderbilt: 12-of-30 (40%)
- At Mississippi State: 10-of-28 (35.7%)
- At Tennessee: 4-of-21 (19%)
- At Georgia: 8-of-23 (34.8%)
Only the Tennessee game was truly a disaster, but 3 of those 4 games fall below Alabama’s season-long mark from 3-point range. It’s also worth noting that the Tennessee game is the closest comparison to what Alabama will be facing at Auburn in terms of a hostile crowd.
When factoring in volume, Sears, Griffen, Latrell Wrightsell and Aaron Estrada have been Alabama’s most impactful 3-point shooters so far this season. That quartet is hitting 3-pointers at just a 32.8% clip during 4 SEC road contests this season (as opposed to their combined season average of 41.8%). This is definitely a concern as Alabama travels to face an Auburn team that is excellent at defending the perimeter.
Alabama’s offense vs. Auburn’s defense
This game features a matchup between a pair of truly elite units: Alabama’s offense vs. Auburn’s defense. Alabama’s offense ranks No. 2 nationally, per KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric. Auburn’s defense comes in at No. 5 in the country.
Alabama’s offense is led by guard Mark Sears, who is a strong candidate for SEC Player of the Year alongside Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht and Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves. Sears is averaging 20.1 points per game this season on ruthless efficiency — he’s hitting 3-points at a 44.7% clip and has a true shooting percentage north of 67%. Sears is 1 of 8 Alabama rotation players who has a true shooting percentage of at least 59% this season. When nearly everyone on the floor is that efficient, most defenses are going to have issues.
Auburn’s defense is anchored by Johni Broome, who is arguably the SEC’s best center in 2023-24. He’s an elite shot-blocker — 2.3 per game — but is versatile enough to do cause havoc elsewhere on the floor as well. He’s also averaging about 1 steal per game and has a defensive rating of 84.3. Overall, Auburn’s defense excels everywhere on the floor. Opponents are hitting just 29.7% of their 3-point attempts and only 42.6% of their 2-point tries — both of those numbers rank inside the top-20 nationally. Auburn’s block percentage of 15.8% is also top 10 in the country entering this matchup.
So who has the edge here? ShotQuality gives a clear edge to Alabama. Per ShotQuality’s model, Auburn’s defense is ranked No. 49 in the country this season — still good, but a far cry from the elite No. 5 ranking it has earned on KenPom. ShotQuality has no such issue with Alabama’s offense as it has the Tide ranked No. 2 on that end of the floor.
1 pick for this game
Alabama +5.5. I think this number is just too big. Auburn probably wins the rematch at home, but I’m expecting a close game that will come down to crunch time. Auburn is not a great 3-point shooting team and its defense has been a bit overvalued this season according to ShotQuality. There’s no clear edge for either team on the boards as both teams figure to do well on the offensive glass. I think Alabama will have a better plan for how to deal with Broome this time around as well. Since Nate Oats arrived in Tuscaloosa, Alabama is 6-3 in this series. That includes 2 outright wins and 1 narrow overtime loss at Auburn.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
